Cathbad
Level 30 Geek Master
Oh, I hope not! A part of the joy of reading, for me, is to absorb the events as they happen, in lockstep with the characters. That's why my reading speed is in direct correlation to the action.
The continued decline of traditional publishing
- Thread starter Brian G Turner
- Start date
Oh, I hope not! A part of the joy of reading, for me, is to absorb the events as they happen, in lockstep with the characters. That's why my reading speed is in direct correlation to the action.
The medium may change, but I think there will always be a market for imaginative stories, as there will be for people to imagine them and record them.
Cli-Fi
John J. Falco
Barnes and Noble will likely be out of business in ten years, probably more like 5 years. Their stock has been in a state of delusional decline and the move to ax the Nook makes no sense. It shows that the company does not have any idea what to do about digital media and the future of publishing.
The year of 2016 has actually been kind to them, and no one really quite knows why. I'm guessing coffee has something to do with it.
Maybe people can't name books anymore? I think I have a pretty neat title. But yes, it seems people want very simple titles these days. Two or three letter titles that sum up the entire plot of the novel! I don't think traditional publishing is declining per se, I think they just want to stick with the established methods for as long as possible. TV writing is hurting too!
Overread
Searching for a flower
Honestly I think the stock market is a bad thing for many businesses once they are past the initial expansion and increase phases of their market. Because what serious investors want is continued return on their investment over a certain percentage each year. The thing is a company can make healthy profit each year without having any increase and even having a decrease in total profit without any problems. But when they've serious share-holders they suddenly start to pull a lot of stupid stunts all focused at short term quick profit generation often near to the shareholders meetings, so that they can try to appear to be getting that continued increase.
But yes Barnes along with Waterstones and most highstreet shops is under a lot of pressure and chances are they will either reduce or fold unless they can diversify or downsize. The highstreet is dead and local councils coupled with estate agents appear keen to hurry that death along. About the only retail model that appears to work is food because you get customers every single day all day; followed by charity shops because they basically have very few overheads. I know some places were it almost seems every other shop is either food or charity.
Thing is I suspect food has a limit too and every other retail model can't go cramming food outlets in before the highstreet is oversaturated with food and thus it will be a loss or at least a non-starter; plus since most hire in a catering company its more a case that you're sharing your rent with another company rather than increasing your own company income.
As for books on a downturn I think reading will remain strong, but that its more a case that there are more forms or entertainment now than there were 50 years ago and as such whilst reading is now for the masses; so too is TV and everything else. So reading has to compete with all that, but I'd be shocked if reading and books were to take a massive nosedive - although I appreciate that many big publishers might take a nosedive due to the changes in the market and the fact that eventually they will likely lose out to self publishing. I think this is even more the case for book publishers than say computer game or music because major or complex music/games/films require organised and often large teams and resources which are hard to fit around a normal job and to self finance; whilst with books many an author is fully prepared to write alongside a regular job (in fact most do)
But yes Barnes along with Waterstones and most highstreet shops is under a lot of pressure and chances are they will either reduce or fold unless they can diversify or downsize. The highstreet is dead and local councils coupled with estate agents appear keen to hurry that death along. About the only retail model that appears to work is food because you get customers every single day all day; followed by charity shops because they basically have very few overheads. I know some places were it almost seems every other shop is either food or charity.
Thing is I suspect food has a limit too and every other retail model can't go cramming food outlets in before the highstreet is oversaturated with food and thus it will be a loss or at least a non-starter; plus since most hire in a catering company its more a case that you're sharing your rent with another company rather than increasing your own company income.
As for books on a downturn I think reading will remain strong, but that its more a case that there are more forms or entertainment now than there were 50 years ago and as such whilst reading is now for the masses; so too is TV and everything else. So reading has to compete with all that, but I'd be shocked if reading and books were to take a massive nosedive - although I appreciate that many big publishers might take a nosedive due to the changes in the market and the fact that eventually they will likely lose out to self publishing. I think this is even more the case for book publishers than say computer game or music because major or complex music/games/films require organised and often large teams and resources which are hard to fit around a normal job and to self finance; whilst with books many an author is fully prepared to write alongside a regular job (in fact most do)
From what I know of the PC gaming world piracy is having a tough time as it is getting harder to crack games. Ditto for other software like Adobe Suite. It is relatively easy to crack DRM protection now (which is perhaps what panics publishers) but I suspect that won't be the case indefinitely. Convert an ebook into something like an application requiring an online key to open and the publishers' bank accounts will be safe. Once they understand that then everything can settle back to normal. Put the odd pirate's head on a pike as an example, like Artem Vaulem of Kickass, and piracy will be kept under control. Vive le profit!
The only theoretical downside for publishers is the fact that an author can now be his own publisher. Publishing houses will then become filters for the vast mountain of self-pubbed or unpublished books - somebody has to do it - and their strength will be (as it always should have been) their ability to sift the good stuff from the dross.
Come to think of it, I've been wondering for some time what's stopping literary agencies from becoming ebook publishers in their own right. They're ideally suited for it.
The only theoretical downside for publishers is the fact that an author can now be his own publisher. Publishing houses will then become filters for the vast mountain of self-pubbed or unpublished books - somebody has to do it - and their strength will be (as it always should have been) their ability to sift the good stuff from the dross.
Come to think of it, I've been wondering for some time what's stopping literary agencies from becoming ebook publishers in their own right. They're ideally suited for it.
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Overread
Searching for a flower
They probably feel that as big as ebooks are the print world is still extensive, which is true. And thus they likely feel that rather than try to battle a market share they might lose on its easier to keep hold of what they do have which is the print market. And asides each printed book still has a digital copy so they can easily make some double sales (going on holiday but don't want to carry 3 massive novels - get the cheaper digital copy)
Martin Gill
Well-Known Member
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Which is why a mixed on/offline model is a potential saviour. The only cost effective way to handle a long tail of products is to reduce the cost to serve your customers, and the cost to hold inventory close to your customers. But very few retailers, and I'd say none of the book retailers, have nailed an omnichannel (I hate that term) customer experience.
They also have to acknowledge that not only is their product is increasingly becoming digitally distributed, but digital has also lowered the barriers of entry, making it possible for "anyone" to self publish at a very low cost. Ok, not anyone, but you get my point. There's multiple forces at work here, and unfortunately most executive teams in many firms aren't equipped to work out how to react. Believe me, my day job is educating these people on how to build digital strategies. They aren't very good at it!
Tirellan
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Some have done so. Mainly for their clients' back catalogues that have become available for e-publication
Has anyone ever considered that maybe - and this is very very speculative - that maybe we are witnessing the first moves towards a post scarcity society? Many music artists now seem to publish music with very little expectation of making big money or indeed any; many deliberately publishing free. There is a huge amount of free software out there, much of it of surprisingly good quality (consider Unix). Is it possible that the internet is helping humanity to make it first stumbling steps (like frequently falling on our noses) towards that mythical money free utopias so popular in SF like Star Trek or The Culture?
We might be. The problem is that all the other stuff - food, shelter, education, etc. - isn't free yet. And in fact, is getting more expensive. So we're looking at a world where people expect entertainment to be free, but entertainers still need a way to make a living. The question is whether the transition to a largely amateur entertainment world will bring a loss in quality.
Cathbad
Level 30 Geek Master
For a while, that might be true; but eventually, pride and public response will cause the cream to rise to the top.
The thing about cream rising to the top is that it happens on its own, without any outside intervention (unless the milk is homogenised, in which case it doesn't happen at all).
There is no equivalent process allowing the "cream" of fiction to arise unaided amongst, say, all the books on Amazon. The closest we get are sales figures and the ranking by sales, which may, or may not, indicate quality; but even if they do, that doesn't mean something even better isn't languishing without a single sale to its name.
There is no equivalent process allowing the "cream" of fiction to arise unaided amongst, say, all the books on Amazon. The closest we get are sales figures and the ranking by sales, which may, or may not, indicate quality; but even if they do, that doesn't mean something even better isn't languishing without a single sale to its name.
Probably the only sure fire way of knowing what the cream is would be to see if it is still widely known and read decades after its first release.
I agree with all your comments. It's just a little wild speculation as to what might actually be starting to happen. Only time will tell whether we ever actually go all the way and whether we still have any quality left at the end.
Didn't someone here on Chronicles attempt something along those lines though - it was a script that "read" books and calculated "how hard SF" they were based upon the number of "SF terms" it came across. Now, I'm not suggesting that a "good" book equals a book that mentions "time distortions" >X number of times, because if that was all it took we would have computers writing books already, but maybe it is a portent of a future where we have a script run through several books for us (and check for grammar, spelling, sentences ending is prepositions, textspeak, purple prose) and tell us which we will prefer.
Martin Gill
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I think we've also seen a shift in how revenues flow in music though. The move to streaming services may reduce revenues for major artists, but undoubtedly generate revenue for older artists with longer back catalogues that may generate occasional listens, but couldn't hope to still drive heavy album sales - or push revenue to new artists who people otherwise wouldn't take a chance on spending a tenner on an entire CD. The Jay-Z's and Taylor Swifts of the world generate a lot of (semi-negative) opinion on streaming (or at least Spotify), but there's a positive as well. We've also seen bands move from album sales to gigs and merch as a prime income stream. Its a changing world where maybe the expectation is that they need to put some content out for free to generate non-traditional revenue.
I don't see that publishing has been as swift to think through how, as old forms of revenue decline, they can generate new sources of income by embracing the way the world is turning, rather than resisting it. Which may involve a give/get model where you do have to give up some content for free. I'd be curious if there are good examples in fiction publishing. I'd say firms like the Guardian, FT and the Economist have got there, or are getting there, in the trad print media world.
Plus, the kickstarter and patreon models show new ways to stream money.
AnyaKimlin
Confuddled
Actually for those of us in Scotland it is because of the Booktrust list. And a variety of authors do make money that way. "How the Koala Learned to Hug" was a puppet show promoting a kid's book etc
I would love to believe this to be true. And yes, I would still write, because it as much as I would love tonearn enoughto live on by writing, I would still be writing if I didn't need any more money/things. I am firmly in the camp that a post scarcity society would produce amazing art, incredible culture and extremely advanced sciences.
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