AI can create pictures and music from prompts, how soon will it be before they can create novels?

[paranoid marvin]

Computers can generate the perfect game of sport, but no-one would rather watch that than the real thing. In the same way a computer can paint a picture perfectly, or compose a piece of music. Or write a book.

What's lacking is any imagination, heart or soul. It's all 'paint by numbers'.

The only time that it might begin to work is if a computer chooses to do it for themselves.

 

[CamRoze]

Isn't that what Jasper AI does?

 

[NurAL]

You can already create plots using chat-gpt.
It can even write cheese first-person stories if prompted. Or pieces of stories.

How long do you think it will pass before they can create a full novel by themselves?
What place will writers have when this happens? Will writing be only a hobby?

On the bright side some sf scripts for tv and cinema are dreadful and might actually improve.

AI is already making the work easier for writers. But they can only make AI create a full fledge literary work (or a good commercial novel) all by itself without any human writer/editor (and without breaching copyrights) if they can equip the AI with a growing conscience, a free will and a mind that programs, updates and expands itself in logical thinking while having a sense of art (which, I believe, requires an even more sophisticated auto programming and auto updating). In short, not anytime soon.

 

[Vertigo]

AI is already making the work easier for writers. But they can only make AI create a full fledge literary work (or a good commercial novel) all by itself without any human writer/editor (and without breaching copyrights) if they can equip the AI with a growing conscience, a free will and a mind that programs, updates and expands itself in logical thinking while having a sense of art (which, I believe, requires an even more sophisticated auto programming and auto updating). In short, not anytime soon.

Are you absolutely sure all those things are really needed to write a "full fledged literary work?" I'm not sure you aren't making assumptions there. Just because all the humans that have so far done so have those qualities to greater or lesser extents does not mean they are essential. That is quite possibly a classic correlation/causation error, and I'm not sure it's provable either way. It's possible that as AIs become more sophisticated with access to the vast database of written words already in existence they may eventually produce such works without having such qualities themselves. Of course it's also possible that as they become more sophisticated they may acquire those qualities. The rate this technology is now advancing I really wouldn't like to make any firm predictions.

For me the bottom line is that, as I see it, all those qualities stem from something that is no more than a highly sophisticated organic computer.

 

[Droflet]

If AI's get good enough to write novels then one might assume that they have reached the level of sentience. Just a thought.

 

[CupofJoe]

I'll only start talking sentience if an AI chooses to write a novel or decides it wants to join a rock-n-roll band instead.

 

[HareBrain]

I'll only start talking sentience if an AI chooses to write a novel or decides it wants to join a rock-n-roll band instead.

For me, the test is that it goes around saying it'll do those things but never does.

 

[NurAL]

Are you absolutely sure all those things are really needed to write a "full fledged literary work?" I'm not sure you aren't making assumptions there. Just because all the humans that have so far done so have those qualities to greater or lesser extents does not mean they are essential. That is quite possibly a classic correlation/causation error, and I'm not sure it's provable either way. It's possible that as AIs become more sophisticated with access to the vast database of written words already in existence they may eventually produce such works without having such qualities themselves. Of course it's also possible that as they become more sophisticated they may acquire those qualities. The rate this technology is now advancing I really wouldn't like to make any firm predictions.

For me the bottom line is that, as I see it, all those qualities stem from something that is no more than a highly sophisticated organic computer.

What I mean by full fledged literary work isn't one of those boring, predictable, full of plotholes novels. We have too many of those out there now, and probably some are written by AI, or should I say by people who use AI to go for quick money, meaning, again the AI in these cases is no more than a tool. I think having AI around is good (with regulations, of course, because of irresponsible humans). In a way AI pushes humans to an even higher level of intellect in order to survive. Yes, the technology is advancing. But so are the organic computers. We are advancing too, in a rate that people who lives a hundred years ago could never imagine. We have better AI, because we have better AI designers. These people are progressing. Fast. We writers need to walk on par with them.

 

[Vertigo]

What I mean by full fledged literary work isn't one of those boring, predictable, full of plotholes novels. We have too many of those out there now, and probably some are written by AI, or should I say by people who use AI to go for quick money, meaning, again the AI in these cases is no more than a tool. I think having AI around is good (with regulations, of course, because of irresponsible humans). In a way AI filters mediocrity and pushes humans to an even higher level of intellect in order to survive. Yes, the technology is advancing. But so are the organic computers. We are advancing too, in a rate that people who lives a hundred years ago could never imagine. We have better AI, because we have better AI designers. These people are progressing. Fast. Writers need to walk on par with them.

But I'm afraid I still don't see a provable causation relationship between the qualities you site and the production of a literary work, either good or bad. Don't get me wrong, I tend to think you are correct but I cannot prove that and so cannot be sure how near or distant we are from AIs being capable of the same.

 

[SporgyTheReader]

You can already create plots using chat-gpt.
It can even write cheese first-person stories if prompted. Or pieces of stories.

How long do you think it will pass before they can create a full novel by themselves?
What place will writers have when this happens? Will writing be only a hobby?

On the bright side some sf scripts for tv and cinema are dreadful and might actually improve.

I sure hope not

 

[Wayne Mack]

Given how little humanity knows about how to create a good novel or short story, I feel it is rather naive to assume that dumping a mass of text into a computer will result in it discovering the hidden pattern to great writing. To me, this seems to be no more than a rehashing of the idea of an infinite amount of monkeys typing for an infinite amount of time will recreate all of Shakespeare's works.

 

[Venusian Broon]

I suppose one has to ask "who benefits from this tech?" Because this still needs a human to seed it, then approve the end result, according to their needs. So sticking within thinking about novels.

Will writers who already write well use it to actually write?

Will anyone who enjoys the process of writing a novel and all the various skills and effort required to achieve such a project want to hit a button and take 120,000 algorthim-generated words as their own?

No, it's going to be those that want to write a novel but run out of steam a week later, the people with a "brilliant idea" but have no aptitude for language and no desire to put the hard work in to learn, it's for hucksters looking for quick buck selling crud on Amazon, it's for those that want to call themselves an Author but put the bare minimum effort in.

Therefore I suspect that with the barriers of entry falling down wrt the art and craft of writing, we are about to hit a tsunami of mediocrity that will make the previous decades advance in self-publishing look like a golden age of classics.

 

[CultureCitizen]

I suppose one has to ask "who benefits from this tech?" Because this still needs a human to seed it, then approve the end result, according to their needs. So sticking within thinking about novels.

Will writers who already write well use it to actually write?

Will anyone who enjoys the process of writing a novel and all the various skills and effort required to achieve such a project want to hit a button and take 120,000 algorthim-generated words as their own?

No, it's going to be those that want to write a novel but run out of steam a week later, the people with a "brilliant idea" but have no aptitude for language and no desire to put the hard work in to learn, it's for hucksters looking for quick buck selling crud on Amazon, it's for those that want to call themselves an Author but put the bare minimum effort in.

Therefore I suspect that with the barriers of entry falling down wrt the art and craft of writing, we are about to hit a tsunami of mediocrity that will make the previous decades advance in self-publishing look like a golden age of classics.

... yes, it still needs a human to seed it. That doesn't mean a human will be required in the future ( 20 years from now).
Writers could become obsolete or unnecessary
We will probably get flooded with AI-generated fiction in a manner similar to how we are now being flooded with AI generated images.

Sure, those with a brilliant idea and no writing skills could make use of an AI.

Regarding the quality... I don't know , even current models have been fed more books than a human can digest in a lifetime. They will probably be good writers in the future.

 

[sknox]

The OP asked how long before AI writes a novel. The answer is easy: now.

The only point being debated is whether what is being written is "good". Which is pretty much what Robert Pirsig asked half a century ago; namely, what is quality?

 

[CultureCitizen]

The OP asked how long before AI writes a novel. The answer is easy: now.

The only point being debated is whether what is being written is "good". Which is pretty much what Robert Pirsig asked half a century ago; namely, what is quality?

I have not seen any AI capable of writing a novel. Short stories and plots sure, yes.
A novel has to be consistent with itself and the characters have consistent traits even if they go through an arch. Most novels have a core theme that is not always obvious to the reader, the theme can be interpreted from different points of view.

 

[sknox]

Like I said, it doesn't have to be good. It doesn't need to meet my standards. It only needs to be a story, even a jumbled one, that someone buys (even if they regret the purchase).

After that, it merely becomes a matter of improving the quality.

Think of computers. The first ones were nothing more than clumsy adding machines, prone to error and requiring far too many resources to justify the result. The ones that pre-figured computers were mere novelties whose significance is seen only in retrospect.

It's here. The current efforts may be laughably clumsy, but it's here. The present situation is far different from, say, thirty years ago when one could confidently say that (at the time) AI could not write a novel.

But really, I go back (again) to Hofstadter. There simply isn't an absolute definition. We'll just start calling it an AI-written novel (we'll probably come up with a better term) and that will be that. Let the experts argue the technicalities.

 

[tinkerdan]

If AI's get good enough to write novels then one might assume that they have reached the level of sentience. Just a thought.

Only if it starts smoking, drinking and suffering writers block.

 

[Wayne Mack]

Like I said, it doesn't have to be good. It doesn't need to meet my standards. It only needs to be a story, even a jumbled one, that someone buys (even if they regret the purchase).

I believe that current capabilities are closer to stream of consciousness than a story. The AI systems do not have a plan for a beginning, middle, and end nor are prior passages remembered to provide consistency as newer passages are created. Saying that the process simply needs to be refined is vastly underestimating the gap between current computer capabilities and what is needed to tell a basic story and the lack of knowledge needed to close that gap.

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

How long will it be before we are living with an AI and it says it wants to take a sabbatical from work and write a novel and we want to be supportive so we say yes and become the only source of income and then one day we come home early as a nice surprise and find it in bed with the toaster? Asking for a friend.

 

[tinkerdan]

How long do you think it will pass before they can create a full novel by themselves?
What place will writers have when this happens? Will writing be only a hobby?

That's odd. My tax person just told me we are going to have to call my writing a hobby until I start to make some real money at it.
I'm like, 'Hey it went over ten dollars this time--otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.'