rudycrab said:
well, first of all, I did not mean that Varys could not have known about the Tysha and the guards. I meant he doesn't know that she wasn't actually a whore. See thats the important part of the Lannister history that leads Tyrion to kill his dad and I doubt those guards knew. Just Jaime and Tywin and Tysha any of whom I doubt would tell.
None the less: this is Varys we're talking about. I'm 90% sure he knew.
He could easily have made enquiries in the Casterly Rock area, and found out who Tysha really was. He has contacts everywhere.
So i contend that he would have had to hear the confession. Also Tyrion is the one who points out they are under the tower of the hand becasue he remembers that Shae told him about the dragon on the floor. So I guess Varys was not only banking on Tyrion being pissed off enough to murder his dad but also that he would remember some minor detail Shae told him before they bumped.
Yes, convenient that Varys somehow managed to **** up a routine blindfolding so that Shae just happened to see a highly distinctive mosaic
en route to the Tower of the Hand, isn't it?
And also, how convenient that this room happens to be on the route out of the Red Keep: that it's well-lit, unlike the passages Varys has just led Tyrion through in the pitch dark: that Varys stops here and takes his time over opening a door so that Tyrion has time to look around...
Either Varys was indeed banking on it or there are a heck of a lot of coincidences there.
And why wouldn't Tyrion remember? It was a highly significant piece of information. He was naturally very curious about how Varys got access to his rooms. It was the only clue he'd managed to unearth about Varys' secret comings and goings.
A friend of mine also points out that it seems odd that Varys went to all that trouble just to get Tyrion laid anyway... maybe precisely so Tyrion would know about the secret passages? Not sure about that one myself, there are certainly other reasons, but it's a thought.
Also, although he didn't know the important detail of the Tysha story which made Jaime guilty he assumed Jaime would feel honorbound to free Tyrion. Varys is not the kind of guy who makes assumptions and regardless of what you say many assumptions are required to pull off Tywin's death.
Nonsense. Varys makes many assumptions. He couldn't operate without them.
The key is having a plan B if your assumptions prove wrong, something Varys and LF are adept at and that seperates them from the hamfisted likes of Cersei, who never considers that her assumptions might be wrong. In this case, plan B is simplicity itself. See Tyrion on his way, wave cheerfully as he leaves, pop back, nip up the ladder and do the job yourself. Not as good as having Tyrion do it, but a good plan B.
The murder was personal. A crime of passion that even the spider couldn't have predicted.
Now it's you that's making assumptions.
oh and its really not hard to surprise someone if you wait behind their door with a knife and knock them down when they walk in. But wait, Varys must have had a little bird watching his room at all times so he obviously had been warned that Jaime was there. Of course, he knew Jaime did not intend to kill him, as a mere mortal might expect when a crippled incestous knight waited behind their door sharpening a knife, and instantly formed a plan to cause Tywin's death. damn he is good.
I just think it's rather odd that, in all the time Varys has been a key player in the politics of Westeros, nobody ever thought of taking the direct approach before (or if they did they were unsuccessful).
Don't you think Varys might have predicted at some stage someone would try it, and taken some precautions against that possibility?
