Yes, Varys is one sneaky guy who I think doesn't get surprised often and has many plans and schemes all on the boil. I was rereading aFfC, the part where Jaime is questioning one of the gaolers about the missing undergaolers, Rugen, and it came to me that this man was actually Varys in his getup. Rennifer Longwaters says that Rugen was in charge of the cells Tyrion and Ned before him were in and was hardly ever there. This would explain why Varys was so familiar with the dungeons and was able to visit Ned Stark in the black cells so easily that time. And we saw Varys scheming with Illyrio in the same garb and around the same viccinity. The highgarden coin is a very clever plant by Varys to play the Tyrells against the Lannisters. This all suggests that the whole Tyrion escape was definately anticipated by Varys whether or not he had expected Tyrion to visit Tywin, which I think he did and had a good idea of what might happen. Why out of all the whores around, would Tywin Lannister want to have the one his son used, the son he abhors? I think Shae was a plant by Varys, she was a loose end to be tied up in any case.
Vary's - why?
- Thread starter Dolorous Edd
- Start date
AryaUnderfoot
AryaUnderfoot
I'm in agreement with Raven that Varys must have known the whole story of Tyrion and his wife. As the master of secrets, he probably sought information on everyone who was a major player in the game.
However, there is one thing that bothers me. What if Tyrion hadn't killed Tywin? What if Tywin somehow killed Tyrion? What would the plan B be then? There's so much that's left up to chance that it makes me wonder if Varys has ever slept, with all the angles he must cover.
However, there is one thing that bothers me. What if Tyrion hadn't killed Tywin? What if Tywin somehow killed Tyrion? What would the plan B be then? There's so much that's left up to chance that it makes me wonder if Varys has ever slept, with all the angles he must cover.
Raven
Corn!
Arya: well, this is a bit more controversial, but...
Notice that one of the few weapons that would be a real 'equaliser' between Tywin and Tyrion, the crossbow that Tyrion eventually uses, has a handily-placed chest underneath it to enable Tyrion to reach it.
There is also a theory that Tywin was on the privy because Varys had poisoned him, possibly with Widow's Blood - a potion mentioned twice before, once only a few chapters previously.
Assuming Varys arranged these things he could be reasonably sure Tywin would not be able to kill Tyrion.
However, even if Tywin had killed Tyrion: not a huge problem. We now know Varys had already planted the evidence linking the Tyrells to 'Rugen' and hence Tyrion's escape. Strife between the two would still have resulted. Tywin would still be alive, bad, but he would have his hands full, good.
(Of course, much depends on exactly how crucial to Varys' plans Tyrion is. If he is as crucial as some think, it seems odd for Varys to risk him, even for so great an advantage as Tywin's death. But on the other hand, Tyrion killing Tywin commits him utterly to Varys' side. So many unanswered questions... we'll have to wait for ADWD to find out, I guess.)
Notice that one of the few weapons that would be a real 'equaliser' between Tywin and Tyrion, the crossbow that Tyrion eventually uses, has a handily-placed chest underneath it to enable Tyrion to reach it.
There is also a theory that Tywin was on the privy because Varys had poisoned him, possibly with Widow's Blood - a potion mentioned twice before, once only a few chapters previously.
Assuming Varys arranged these things he could be reasonably sure Tywin would not be able to kill Tyrion.
However, even if Tywin had killed Tyrion: not a huge problem. We now know Varys had already planted the evidence linking the Tyrells to 'Rugen' and hence Tyrion's escape. Strife between the two would still have resulted. Tywin would still be alive, bad, but he would have his hands full, good.
(Of course, much depends on exactly how crucial to Varys' plans Tyrion is. If he is as crucial as some think, it seems odd for Varys to risk him, even for so great an advantage as Tywin's death. But on the other hand, Tyrion killing Tywin commits him utterly to Varys' side. So many unanswered questions... we'll have to wait for ADWD to find out, I guess.)
Why would Varys make inqueries about Tysha? The signifigance of the event is pretty much only in Tyrion's head. Does Varys know he hears echoes of a song Tysha sang him years ago? And what contacts? In the story only Tywin, Jaime, and Tysha know the truth. So do you mean contacts in Casterly Rock you overheard the truth? Tywin is likely to know his own castle well enough to not be overheard. Or contacts around the small folk who know Tysha, who would just be dying to discuss her gang rape with everyone? And exactly what precautions did Varys have when Jaime tackled him and cut his neck? Your major assumption seems to be that Varys can't **** up anything. Also, Twyins death seems to have cost him a nice position to influence future events so why do it in a way that completely points to him as part of the murder? The man you describe could have had Tywin killed and let Tyrion get executed and then worked to keep Cersei in power while she pissed off the Tyrells and ran the realm to ruins. Everyone thinks he is clearing the path for Dany, so why lose that position?
AryaUnderfoot
AryaUnderfoot
rudycrab said:
Varys knows by now to ask the right questions. As the Lannisters have been almost too powerful for quite some time, it serves Varys well to know intimate details about all of the members of the family. Especially Tyrion, who, despite his father's personal interests, is technically the heir to the Lannister fortune. It's Varys's job to know all of the important things about any potential enemies or allies to the throne, namely: their weaknesses, their desires, their past, their secrets...
Tyrion, Tywin, Jaime and Tysha were the only ones who intimately knew the details of Tyrion and Tysha's relationship. But Varys has been around for a long time, and Tyrion is only- what? 23? Varys is known for weaving his spy webs everywhere. It can be certain that he has spies in almost ever major household in the Seven Kingdoms- or why pay him to do what he does? Regardless of what precautions Tywin took to keep Tyrion's marriage a secret, every single person in his household had eyes, ears, and probably wouldn't have minded a few extra pennies for a bit of gossip.
Not to mention- it has been speculated before the Bronn is Varys's pawn. Tyrion talked about Tysha quite a bit to Bronn, and to Shae. Either one of them could have told Varys enough to get him on the right track. I think it's safe to assume that he knew all about it.
Moving on- I don't think Varys has really left the stage, as it were. I think he's simply removed himself from the public eye, allowing Cersei to think what she will. Unseen enemies can create a certain amount of paranoia. I think Varys is doing a Wizard of Oz bit now, working from behind the curtain. I'm sure his little birds are still in place, and he still has ways of influencing things, only now he's not in a place of danger.
The marriage was not the secret. Every person in his household thought Tyrion married a whore but who knew she was just a cobbler's daughter. Tyrion did not know the details. He was misinformed so Bronn could have told Varys the story but not the truth. Jaime was obviously holding the truth inside untill his confession, Tywin wouldn't stop calling Tysha a whore even when it meant his death so it seems he had convinced himself of the lie, and Tysha is an unknown. So who is the source? He may still have influence but he also has powerful people looking to have him killed for his part in Tywin's and Joff's deaths. Why would he chose a position in which he is suspected of a part in two high profile murders when he could have pulled off the same murders and come out clean. Then later he could leave King's Landing with a good excuse and really work his influence out of danger with no worries.
AryaUnderfoot
AryaUnderfoot
Well, if he really is a Targaryen loyalist, it would work to his advantage to be responsible for the deaths of two great enemies of that house, when Dany rolls into town.rudycrab said:
Its not like he couldn't claim to have had a hand in their deaths while not being linked to them publicly throughout the world. But I guess my opinion on this subject is far from the norm and nobody invovled seems likely to change their opinion so there is not really anymore reason to discuss it. we can just wait and see.
Raven
Corn!
rudy:
As to why Varys would have asked... Varys didn't get to be Master of Whisperers in KL for twenty years under two different kings by only asking obvious questions. It's the details that matter.
What's the significance of Shae, for example, when Tyrion arrives in KL? Just his bedwarmer, right? Nobody, not even Bronn, knows how dependent Tyrion is on her, because he barely admits it to himself. Yet the very first thing Varys does is seek her out - personally. Not because he knows she is significant: but because she might be.
Or the death of Ser Hugh in the joust with Gregor. Jon Arryn's reading of Maester Malleon's Lineages. LF lying about a bet. What's the significance of these?
(Incidentally the marriage was secret. Nobody knew but Tysha, Tyrion, Jaime, Tywin and the septon who performed it. By contrast, many people in the CR area would have known Tysha was a cobbler's daughter, not a whore.)
All Varys needs is to hear about the rape, find out about the victim, discover that she is not (as claimed) a whore, and make a few reasonable speculations, later confirmed by observation of Tyrion's character and his behaviour with Shae.
Wrong question. What I asked was, why did Varys not have precautions against this happening in the first place? Either plans to avoid it or ideas about what to do if it did happen?
It simply defies belief that Jaime is the first and only person to decide to physically coerce Varys into doing something: the only thing less believable is that Varys survived as long as he did if it was that simple to make him do what you want, even against his own best interests.
Also, Varys clearly wanted to free Tyrion, rather than see him die, and there was no way to do that without implicating himself.
And having read AFFC, I don't suppose Varys wanted to hang around to be Cersei's Master of Whisperers. The indications are that Varys was done with his position at court. I think you'll see that in future books.
The significance of the event is huge. Knowing about it gives a person an important lever to use to pry Tyrion loose from his family loyalty.
As to why Varys would have asked... Varys didn't get to be Master of Whisperers in KL for twenty years under two different kings by only asking obvious questions.
It's the details that matter. What's the significance of Shae, for example, when Tyrion arrives in KL? Just his bedwarmer, right? Nobody, not even Bronn, knows how dependent Tyrion is on her, because he barely admits it to himself. Yet the very first thing Varys does is seek her out - personally. Not because he knows she is significant: but because she might be.
Or the death of Ser Hugh in the joust with Gregor. Jon Arryn's reading of Maester Malleon's Lineages. LF lying about a bet. What's the significance of these?
(Incidentally the marriage was secret. Nobody knew but Tysha, Tyrion, Jaime, Tywin and the septon who performed it. By contrast, many people in the CR area would have known Tysha was a cobbler's daughter, not a whore.)
All Varys needs is to hear about the rape, find out about the victim, discover that she is not (as claimed) a whore, and make a few reasonable speculations, later confirmed by observation of Tyrion's character and his behaviour with Shae.
Wrong question. What I asked was, why did Varys not have precautions against this happening in the first place? Either plans to avoid it or ideas about what to do if it did happen?
It simply defies belief that Jaime is the first and only person to decide to physically coerce Varys into doing something: the only thing less believable is that Varys survived as long as he did if it was that simple to make him do what you want, even against his own best interests.
By the same token, though, your major assumption is that he makes the kind of fuckups that should have proved fatal in the game of thrones long ago.
The evidence is that he would have lost his position had Tywin lived anyway. Tywin made no bones about the fact that he planned to get rid of Varys, if not immediately, then soon.
Also, Varys clearly wanted to free Tyrion, rather than see him die, and there was no way to do that without implicating himself.
And having read AFFC, I don't suppose Varys wanted to hang around to be Cersei's Master of Whisperers.
The indications are that Varys was done with his position at court. I think you'll see that in future books.You are taking things out of context. AU had commented that many people would have known about the secret marriage. In answer to her I was saying it is not the important secret. That being that she wasn't a whore.
Why would the people around CR not think she had become a whore after dissappearing for the time she was with Tyrion and returning with lots of money? Cobbler's daughters can become whores after all. Generally in these books whoring seems to be a pretty common job for pretty lowborn women so why would people assume otherwise.
Also Varys may not have been directly attacked before because he was very useful to people in power. Jaime is one of the few major characters in the book reckless enough to attack him directly. Who had reason to attack him before? And what exactly could have stopped Jaime? I doubt Varys would have been alllowed to leave his own gaurds around his room.
IF Tywin had lived Varys would have lost his job but the man you describe could have killed Tywin in a way that didn't obviously point to his involvement. And once again leaving your position and leaving your position suspected of murder are two different things.
Lets assume you are right. Varys knows that Tysha was the only person you ever truly loved Tyrion despite what he was and he knows what Tyrion did to her because of his father's trick. He found it out from a peasant. He also knows Jaime knew the truth and wants to tell Tyrion to clear his guilt. So he leaves the normally impreg-nable defenses on his room down. Knowing that Jaime will accost him on the night before his brother's death. All goes as planned and Jaime confesses. He then leads Tyrion to the room in which months before(when he planned all this including Tyrion's presence in the black cells, Jaime's timely arrival in King's Landing, and Tywin's bathroom visit) he had allowed Shae to notice the dragon on the floor. He also knows the exact minute that Tywin while be on the crapper since he posioned him with twenty minute acting laxatives and knew exactly when Tywin liked to eat. He even took in to account how long it would take Tyrion the climb the 200 or so rung ladder. He also planted a crossbow hung on the wall. Twyin would have had nothing to do with the weapons hanging on his wall of course. Vayrs even knew that Tywin would enrage Tyrion by continuely refering to is ex-wife as a whore. Wow Varys is pretty damn unstoppable. End the books now. He has already set in motionthe death of every character but Dany.
Why would the people around CR not think she had become a whore after dissappearing for the time she was with Tyrion and returning with lots of money? Cobbler's daughters can become whores after all. Generally in these books whoring seems to be a pretty common job for pretty lowborn women so why would people assume otherwise.
Also Varys may not have been directly attacked before because he was very useful to people in power. Jaime is one of the few major characters in the book reckless enough to attack him directly. Who had reason to attack him before? And what exactly could have stopped Jaime? I doubt Varys would have been alllowed to leave his own gaurds around his room.
IF Tywin had lived Varys would have lost his job but the man you describe could have killed Tywin in a way that didn't obviously point to his involvement. And once again leaving your position and leaving your position suspected of murder are two different things.
Lets assume you are right. Varys knows that Tysha was the only person you ever truly loved Tyrion despite what he was and he knows what Tyrion did to her because of his father's trick. He found it out from a peasant. He also knows Jaime knew the truth and wants to tell Tyrion to clear his guilt. So he leaves the normally impreg-nable defenses on his room down. Knowing that Jaime will accost him on the night before his brother's death. All goes as planned and Jaime confesses. He then leads Tyrion to the room in which months before(when he planned all this including Tyrion's presence in the black cells, Jaime's timely arrival in King's Landing, and Tywin's bathroom visit) he had allowed Shae to notice the dragon on the floor. He also knows the exact minute that Tywin while be on the crapper since he posioned him with twenty minute acting laxatives and knew exactly when Tywin liked to eat. He even took in to account how long it would take Tyrion the climb the 200 or so rung ladder. He also planted a crossbow hung on the wall. Twyin would have had nothing to do with the weapons hanging on his wall of course. Vayrs even knew that Tywin would enrage Tyrion by continuely refering to is ex-wife as a whore. Wow Varys is pretty damn unstoppable. End the books now. He has already set in motionthe death of every character but Dany.
Raven
Corn!
rudycrab said:
Wll, my point is she wasn't a whore before, which is a pretty key point. Jaime's story is that she was.
And while we could argue about the reasonableness of the assumption that she had turned whore (I'd dispute that people would necessarily think that), Varys doesn't have to know for sure that she didn't. There are a lot of things that Varys doesn't have to know for sure. Just because I figure something out doesn't mean I knew it all along.
Well, it's that usefulness that means controlling Varys is important.
It's barely conceivable that nobody in the whole twenty years was ever desperate, reckless or arrogant enough to pull this stunt before Jaime did, though only barely. But you're also asking me to believe it never occurred to Varys that it might happen someday, so he never bothered to take any precautions against it.
As for what he could have done to prevent it: many things. He could simply not have been there. Jaime waited in Varys' cell for some time, IIRC. All the things Varys knows about what happens in the Red Keep, and he is totally unaware of the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard being in his own sleeping quarters waiting for him? Varys knows where to find everyone when he needs to, but totally loses track of the whereabouts of the LC at a crucial time? His 'little birds' observe everyone else's sleeping chambers, but don't keep watch over Varys'?
Possible in terms of realism, perhaps, bad writing though. If you create a character who constantly amazes other characters with the crucial information that he knows, to simply declare him ignorant of key pieces of info whenever it suits your plot is bad writing.
They are. But as I say: I think you'll find in future books that Varys was done with his position in KL, and intends to return only in circumstances where no-one will give a hoot if he helped to murder Tywin.
So he didn't really care, I suspect. What he did care about was Tyrion severing his links to the Lannisters irrevocably. Again, not to give too much away, but in ADWD you may see reasons to believe that.
No. Varys deduces from information and observation that Tyrion truly loved Tysha. The converse he has no way of knowing, but isn't relevant.
Nobody but you suggested Varys' room has 'impregnable defences'. Really, mischaracterising your opponent's arguments is a pretty silly way to win an argument.
I'm not sure about this bit, actually. I think probably Jaime's presence was an unexpected bonus. As I said above, even leaving aside all the Tysha business, Varys has good reason to think Tyrion has enough motivation to kill Tywin. (He's likely wrong, but he doesn't know that.) And we don't know, of course, whether had Jaime not been there or had not confessed, whether Varys might have prompted Tyrion himself, either with the Tysha info or with something else (maybe, for example, a hint that Shae was in bed with Tywin at that very moment).
Why does he have to have planned everything that far in advance? He can adapt his plans, can't he? Again, just because Varys plans something doesn't mean he has to have planned it all along. Allowing Shae to see the mosiac could have been a move he considered potentially useful.
Not difficult for Varys, but as I said above I'm not totally convinced by this part of the plan. Of course, you are ignoring that.
Again, misrepresenting me. I clearly said, the thing to note about the crossbow is that there is a chest conveniently placed below it. If things went as you say, this is yet another convenient deus ex machina by the author, to add to the fact that the escape route just happens to go through a room that Shae just happened to see when Varys made an uncharacteristic mistake, etc. Too many coincidences: either this is bad writing or there is more to it than meets the eye.
My, your cutting sarcasm has me totally defeated.
Tell you what: go and read Varys' dialogue in the mosiac room again. You know, the bit where he says (in essence) 'no, don't go up there: particularly don't go up that ladder, 300 paces along, then third left, you can't miss it'. Where he 'accidentally' reminds Tyrion that his chambers are now his father's. Where he makes the most feeble attempt to talk Tyrion out of going up the ladder imaginable.
If you think after reading that dialogue that Varys did not want Tyrion to ascend the ladder, and if you imagine that Varys did not realise full well that would result in either Tyrion or Tywin dying, then I'm afraid nothing I can say will persuade you otherwise. However, the evidence of that scene is pretty conclusive to me...
Personally I think it is bad writing to make a character who knows everything and never makes a mistake.
How could giving Tyrion knowledge of the tunnels underneathe the tower of the hand be good for Varys?
I was not misrepresenting you or trying to win anything. I was making a joke ( A bad one) and trying to keep the tone of my post light. I was copying Robert Aryyn's anoying description of his castle. Sorry you read it that way.
The chest under the crossbow would not be deus ex machina becasue it is perfectly likely a chest would be there. What reason do we have to believe it unlikely a chest would be agaisnt a wall in Tywin's room underneath a crossobw. It is lucky not improbable.
I think it was you who started the cutting with your lovely "Its hard to post something I think is completely wrong" followed by your favortie smilely face. It is possible to disagree with me without that kind of statement. Not that I complained.
Its true that Varys is rather descriptive of the way to Tywin's room. Including the exact amount of rungs on the ladder. If you wanted a dwarf to climb a ladder would you make it seem freaking long? Tyrion himself comments on the fact that they are underneath his old room so he obviously knows he is underneathe the tower of the hand. Would it make sense for Varys to lie to the the condemned man who just threatened to kill and to whose fate Varys is now tied?
The lucky timing after Tyrion gets upstairs is a flaw in your theory and I don't see why it shouldn't be mentioned. It would be bad writing to have Varys have orchestrated Twyin bathroom visit and Jaime's hour of confession perfectly so you would have to assume he didn't know who would die upstairs. You claim Varys wanted to free Tyrion and then say he sent him upstairs to either kill or be killed. Why does he need to use Tyrion as the killer? He could have not lit the torch in that room and escaped with Tyrion while some underling crossbowed Tywin. Did he want to give Tyrion the chance for revenge? That seems a little bit sentimental for Varys. There was no reason to put Tyrion at risk.
How could giving Tyrion knowledge of the tunnels underneathe the tower of the hand be good for Varys?
I was not misrepresenting you or trying to win anything. I was making a joke ( A bad one) and trying to keep the tone of my post light. I was copying Robert Aryyn's anoying description of his castle. Sorry you read it that way.
The chest under the crossbow would not be deus ex machina becasue it is perfectly likely a chest would be there. What reason do we have to believe it unlikely a chest would be agaisnt a wall in Tywin's room underneath a crossobw. It is lucky not improbable.
I think it was you who started the cutting with your lovely "Its hard to post something I think is completely wrong" followed by your favortie smilely face. It is possible to disagree with me without that kind of statement. Not that I complained.
Its true that Varys is rather descriptive of the way to Tywin's room. Including the exact amount of rungs on the ladder. If you wanted a dwarf to climb a ladder would you make it seem freaking long? Tyrion himself comments on the fact that they are underneath his old room so he obviously knows he is underneathe the tower of the hand. Would it make sense for Varys to lie to the the condemned man who just threatened to kill and to whose fate Varys is now tied?
The lucky timing after Tyrion gets upstairs is a flaw in your theory and I don't see why it shouldn't be mentioned. It would be bad writing to have Varys have orchestrated Twyin bathroom visit and Jaime's hour of confession perfectly so you would have to assume he didn't know who would die upstairs. You claim Varys wanted to free Tyrion and then say he sent him upstairs to either kill or be killed. Why does he need to use Tyrion as the killer? He could have not lit the torch in that room and escaped with Tyrion while some underling crossbowed Tywin. Did he want to give Tyrion the chance for revenge? That seems a little bit sentimental for Varys. There was no reason to put Tyrion at risk.
Raven
Corn!
rudycrab said:
If I see any I'll tell you, then.
Varys makes mistakes: for example, he is caught by surprise by Ned's execution, he doesn't detect Arya spying on him and Illyrio, and he fails to persuade Aerys to keep the gates locked against Tywin. Just three off the top of my head, I'm sure he's failed many more times than that.Because inevitably Tywin would be back. And he would take over the role of Hand, and the chambers too. And although Varys may not have had the details worked out, I imagine he had the rough idea (get Tyrion to kill Tywin) in mind.
No probs.
Yes, of course. But too many strokes of luck in one scenario start to look improbable.
[digression] It's ironic that this is more of a problem for fiction than real life. RL does not have credibility to maintain. It doesn't have to be 'realistic'.
[/digression]Sorry, didn't mean that to be rude.
Well, if it was long... I don't see how I could avoid mentioning it, particularly as I'd have to tell Tyrion where to get off the ladder.
He does. It's Varys' reply I'm commenting on: not 'yes it is, but never mind that', but 'your lord father's bedchamber now'. A deliberate reminder that Tywin is up there.
Know? perhaps not, but I think Varys did stack the odds in Tyrion's favour as much as he could. Varys is a gambler when he needs to be.
Interesting question. Tyrion doing the deed himself has a shattering effect on his psyche (I have no idea if you've read any ADWD previews, but it's not a major spoiler to say that we see this in the first Tyrion chapter). I theorise that it is meant to sunder Tyrion irrevocably from his family, in his own mind not least, thereby making him totally dependent on Varys and his allies.
(Framing him for the deed might sunder him from Cersei, but Jaime might give Tyrion the benefit of the doubt if he claimed innocence. But Tyrion, knowing himself guilty, will not do that. )
And as I say, I have reason to believe Varys may consider this important, important enough to risk Tyrion dying...
Well I have not read the preview chapters, which is a fact I lament. Do you know where I can get them?
You have made many good points and I can see the logic of your viewpoint but I reserve judgement until I get more information.
Since you mentioned Ned's death I have another question. Varys uses Sansa to get Ned to confess to false charges seemingly to protect the peace of the realm. If it is true that Varys has been working to bring back Dany, why would he not want Ned to be killed? This would push the realm into civil war and pave the way for Dany as the savior.
You have made many good points and I can see the logic of your viewpoint but I reserve judgement until I get more information.
Since you mentioned Ned's death I have another question. Varys uses Sansa to get Ned to confess to false charges seemingly to protect the peace of the realm. If it is true that Varys has been working to bring back Dany, why would he not want Ned to be killed? This would push the realm into civil war and pave the way for Dany as the savior.
Raven
Corn!
rudycrab said:
The Tyrion chapters themselves are not available, but the first two have been read at cons and reports on these readings including summaries of them can be found here:
http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?showforum=14
The only ADWD chapters published in full are the first three Dany chapters, which are available in a booklet published in advance of AFFC (in the days when Dany was going to be in that book). You can pick copies up on eBay. Failing that the first of those three chapters is available on George's website:
http://www.georgerrmartin.com/chapter.html
Thank you, but you're right in that we need more information. I'm fairly confident about what that will be, but I've been wrong before.
Well, two things. One, it could be that Varys just didn't want Ned dead at that time. His conversation with Illyrio suggests they want war, but not necessarily so soon. This would also explain why Varys seems to want to keep Robert alive...
Second, I believe Varys is doing a little post-war planning. He has cultivated Edric Storm, for example, sending him presents allegedly from Robert. Why? And why does he rescue Gendry? My theory is that he wants to have heirs in place for the Great Houses when Dany takes over. He knows the three Baratheon brothers will inevitably have to be killed before Dany returns, and he needs an heir to the Stormlands. Edric is plan A and Gendry plan B.
Hence one reason for the importance of Tyrion: severed from his family and made loyal to Dany he can become heir to the Rock. And possibly, Varys wanted Ned alive and installed as LC of the NW for similar reasons: he could not hold WF, but a loyal Night's Watch would be important and Ned being kept alive by Varys could help secure the loyalty of his heir.
I think the point that may be missed in someone reading the THREE PAGES of your discussion is that Varys is one of the most complex characters in the story. The first time you read the books you take him for granted in a sense. I know that the idea Varys was a faceless man was blown off in earlier posts, but It would almost seem reasonable considereing how well he performs under all of the circumstances.
I find it interesting that 2 of the mistakes you pointed out came by way of children, or at least very young adults. Varys mistakes and surprises tend to come from rash behavior, I wouls assume that is unpredictable.
Varys does not know all, but like a good stock broker keeps enough info at hand to make very good predictions as to what people would do.
Tangent - This also solidifies my feelings that splitting this last book up regionally was the wrong way to go. I feel long removed from Tyrion, Varys, Jon, etc..
is that Varys is one of the most complex characters in the story. The first time you read the books you take him for granted in a sense. I know that the idea Varys was a faceless man was blown off in earlier posts, but It would almost seem reasonable considereing how well he performs under all of the circumstances.Raven said:
I find it interesting that 2 of the mistakes you pointed out came by way of children, or at least very young adults. Varys mistakes and surprises tend to come from rash behavior, I wouls assume that is unpredictable.
Varys does not know all, but like a good stock broker keeps enough info at hand to make very good predictions as to what people would do.
Tangent - This also solidifies my feelings that splitting this last book up regionally was the wrong way to go. I feel long removed from Tyrion, Varys, Jon, etc..