The Letter [SPOILERS - ADWD]

[Ursa major]

I still say it's Ramsay. [...] I think he's lying about Stannis being dead to draw Jon away from Castle Black and pull him towards Winterfell, which would've worked had he not been attacked.

But why on earth would Ramsey want Jon** away from Castle Black? Why would he want Jon anywhere near Winterfell?



** - A man who would never have inherited Winterfell even before he took the Black.

 

[The Imp]

But why on earth would Ramsey want Jon** away from Castle Black? Why would he want Jon anywhere near Winterfell?



** - A man who would never have inherited Winterfell even before he took the Black.

There is though the small matter of Robb making Jon his "heir"

 

[Ursa major]

Robb made Jon his heir in his (Robb's) capacity as King of the North. I'm not sure that the rulings of a defunct (and never accepted**) realm, and its traitorous*** king, carry much weight.

And Jon has taken the Black so cannot inherit Winterfell. A king could sanction it, as Stannis tried to, but that would mean nothing unless that king was in power in the North. And if such a king had such power, and wished Jon to inherit, Ramsey would not be next in line if Jon were**** to die.



** - By those around "now", including Stannis, Dany, Aegon, Euron, etc.

*** - Which is how it'll be seen, unless the Stark-supported side wins in the end (and then Ramsay is toast anyway).

**** - The letter was written in the belief that Jon was alive at that time; I'm not suggesting anything about Jon's chances of survival post-stabbing.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

But how would Mance know about 'Reek'? Or even Melisandre? That's the part that makes it unlikely that it was anyone from the Wall.

Why couldn't the letter be exactly from who it seems? The ******* of Bolton.

 

[Ursa major]

But how would Mance know about 'Reek'? Or even Melisandre? That's the part that makes it unlikely that it was anyone from the Wall.

Mance must know quite a lot about Melisandre. But as for Reek, Mance and his 'washerwoman' have been keeping an eye on Theon, some of the women asking him how he captured Winterfell. Theon wonders if Abel (Mance) is looking for a way out of the fortress. But the answer to what Mance might know is to be found at the end of the chapter, A Ghost in Winterfell, just after Theon hears the heart tree saying "Theon" and then "Bran". Three of Mance's washerwomen come for him; the last words in that chapter are these:

"[...] You want to die as Theon? We'll give you that. A nice quick death, 'twill hardly hurt at all." She [Rowan] smiled. "But not till you've sung for Abel. He's waiting for you."

Now while one of the things Mance wants to discuss with Theon is their escape (with 'Arya'), I can't believe that Mance doesn't ask for more information than what's required to make the plan work. He'll have asked about anything else that he thinks might be of use later.

Oh, and the "You want to die as Theon?" question makes it clear that Rowan is fully aware of Theon's identity issues.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Mance must know quite a lot about Melisandre.

My mistake - I should have made my post clearer. What I meant was, how would either Mance or Melisandre know about Reek?

Theon wonders if Abel (Mance) is looking for a way out of the fortress.

Woah! Either I'm thick or have an extremely poor memory; was it established that Abel is, in fact, Mance?? I completely missed that. Although now that you mention it, it makes sense since Mance did head out with some spearwives, didn't he?

Now you know why I have such a hard time voting for the Writing Challenges. I'm far too thick to get anyone's stories...

 

[Needle]

I just finished my first re-read (am much happier the second time around by the way!) anyhow I am know convinced the letter is probably from Ramsey. However he is just threatening and ranting both of which he is good at. Why at Jon I am not sure unless he just figures Theon would not have anywhere else to go (he of course knows Theon didn't kill Job brothers)

If he had truly beaten and killed Stannis he would have Reek and "Arya" .

 

[juleska]

Mance must know quite a lot about Melisandre. But as for Reek, Mance and his 'washerwoman' have been keeping an eye on Theon, some of the women asking him how he captured Winterfell. Theon wonders if Abel (Mance) is looking for a way out of the fortress. But the answer to what Mance might know is to be found at the end of the chapter, A Ghost in Winterfell, just after Theon hears the heart tree saying "Theon" and then "Bran". Three of Mance's washerwomen come for him; the last words in that chapter are these:

Now while one of the things Mance wants to discuss with Theon is their escape (with 'Arya'), I can't believe that Mance doesn't ask for more information than what's required to make the plan work. He'll have asked about anything else that he thinks might be of use later.

Oh, and the "You want to die as Theon?" question makes it clear that Rowan is fully aware of Theon's identity issues.

OH MY GOD. I can't believe I didn't work out that Abel was frickin' MANCE!!!

 

[Ursa major]

...was it established that Abel is, in fact, Mance?? I completely missed that. Although now that you mention it, it makes sense since Mance did head out with some spearwives, didn't he?

That Abel = Mance is an assumption. (And assuming anything with GRRM is a trifle dangerous.) However, I'm just about convinced that Abel = Mance, as there are quite a few pointers, including:

1. Spearwives (as you say). Most societies, other than the Wildings, don't go in for female warriors/assassins. And they are working for Abel. In Mel's chapter, Mance - at that point disguised as Rattleshirt - asks for women to help him in rescuing 'Arya'. And in the Jon chapter where the giant arrives at Castle Black, Jon states that Mance had gone south with six spearwives ('"Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said.').
2. Mance was sent to rescue 'Arya'; that's what Abel is doing.
3. Everyone else inside Winterfell is a Northern lord or one of their retinue. Only Abel and his washerwomen are outsiders. Now it may be that the glamour could make Mance look like someone else, but how would Mel know what any of them looked like**? (Mance may not even be disguised - no-one there officially for the wedding would know what he looks like - though perhaps his true identity needs to be kept from his washerwomen***.)

** - Which rather undermines my earlier argument that Mance may be disguised as Ramsay. Now it may be that the 'slave' ruby allows information to pass back to Mel - we know that it transmits heat - but that would mean that Mance could have been made to look like anyone. (Abel, though, is not beholden to any lord, so has more freedom to move about Winterfell. A lord's movements would be noticed; their retinue would have duties to perform. The only other candidate would be the wandering Theon, but we know he's the real Theon.)

*** - We didn't see Mance leave Castle Black, so we don't know if the spearwives ever saw him in his true state.

 

[juleska]

There's also the fact that Mance is a singer and that he previously crashed the party at Winterfell posing as a bard....which of course is exactly what Abel is doing. Nobody ever suspects the singer is a spy. Now that you've pointed it out it's blazingly obvious that Abel = Mance, I think you're dead on. I had been wondering how Mance came to be in Winterfell in Ramsay's possession and this makes sense.

 

[vanslyke]

I've wrapped my head around Abel being Mance and it makes perfect sense. However, I can't figure out if the letter is from Mance, Mel, the both of them. My strongest feeling is that Mel and Mance worked this plan out before he left for Winterfell. It's backfired a tad what with the stabbing and all but it could actually work out better for Mel's plans. She's always wanted Jon to bond more closely with Ghost and since it was his last thought before blacking out it appears that's happened.

 

[juleska]

I still think Ramsay wrote the letter. I don't see any compelling evidence to the contrary.

 

[vanslyke]

It just seems too good to be true for Bolton.

 

[juleska]

It just seems too good to be true for Bolton.

LOL! Of course it's too good to be true for Bolton....he's a lying mofo! It's just that simple to me....there's no good reason for any of the other candidates put forth to have written the letter. There's plenty of good reason for a vicious, stupid, desperate, knuckle-dragging neanderthal like Ram-Ram to write it.

 

[vanslyke]

LOL! Of course it's too good to be true for Bolton....he's a lying mofo! It's just that simple to me....there's no good reason for any of the other candidates put forth to have written the letter. There's plenty of good reason for a vicious, stupid, desperate, knuckle-dragging neanderthal like Ram-Ram to write it.

So it's the final attempt of a desperate man? He has to know if he sends that letter he's going to have a lot of angry Northmen on his heels as well as Stannis and his army.

 

[juleska]

So it's the final attempt of a desperate man? He has to know if he sends that letter he's going to have a lot of angry Northmen on his heels as well as Stannis and his army.

Well if I'm wrong and you're right, we'll find out in TWOW, then you can serve me a healthy portion of crow and I'll gladly swallow. But from where I'm standing, Ramsay does not strike me as the kind of person who would be smart enough to be worried about such circumstances, because he is so utterly convinced of his supreme rightness.

I do think he believes he can provoke Jon and prevail, he may even believe that Theon and Arya have run off to the Wall for protection.

 

[vanslyke]

oh ya, of course. right now everyone is right and everyone is wrong, and it's fun going back and forth with theories. I'm not dead set on one theory or the next, it's hard to be certain of anything while reading ASOIF. That's why GRRM is such a great author.

 

[Ursa major]

There's also the fact that Mance is a singer and that he previously crashed the party at Winterfell posing as a bard....

I meant to add this, but I was distracted by my attempt to divert the coach and horses I was driving through my 'Mance is disguised as Ramsay' theory.

Anyway....

LOL! Of course it's too good to be true for Bolton....he's a lying mofo! It's just that simple to me....there's no good reason for any of the other candidates put forth to have written the letter. There's plenty of good reason for a vicious, stupid, desperate, knuckle-dragging neanderthal like Ram-Ram to write it.

The good reason for Mance to write his letter is to get hold of his son. And he may be desperate to do this because he may suspect that Mel is going to sacrifice the little fellow. (Mance probably doesn't know that Jon has already sent the child to Oldtown.)

And then there's the inconvenient fact that Mance is disguised as Abel. How would Ramsay know that? Why would Ramsay even suspect. Even if Ramsay was partaking in some of his trademark torture, he would not be asking Abel if he was Mance; he'd be asking Abel who he was working for and why. Admitting who he really was would bring no benefit to Mance. If anything, it would alienate any allies Mance might possibly have had (Wyman Manderly, for instance.) Far better to simply admit that he was a Wilding that Jon had sent to rescue Arya, to prove the Wilding's good faith. (The spearwives might know, but they never needed to, not if Abel is in disguise**.)




** - To be fair, we don't whether he is or not, or whether any of the spearwives know that Abel is Mance.

 

[C Of K]

If Abel isn't Mance, then Abel is working for Mance, and I don't think Jon or Mel would give Mance enough coin to to hire someone else to do the job he is attempting. It's insanely dangerous. Who else would do it but him? He is the ultimate risk taker. Always has been.

ASoIaF seems to be quickly running out of any straight forward facts. We can't even be sure of something so insignificant as this. But GRRM has given us sufficient clues for this. There's really no reason for it to be anyone else.

 

[GeirHR]

I would say beyond a doubt that the letter is from Ramsay. It is consistent with his way of wording and rantings and signed by him. As to the information within the letter I am sure that he got it from the spearwife that stayed behind. It is stated that when "Arya" (Jeyne) was to be smuggled out she changed clothes with one of the spearwifes because no one would notice her among the five other spearwives. I image that Mance, five spearwifes and Jeyne escape together with Theon and that is consistent with the latter two showing up in Stannis' camp. Probably Mance and the spearwifes left for the Wall (or somewhere else). The remaining spearwife I expect were caught by Ramsay. She was then interrogated, thus revealing the information in the letter, before she was most likely skinned.

As to Abel = Mance there should be no doubt as Abel is an anagram for Bael the Bard which Mance used as an alias the last time he visited Winterfell undercover. Also he left the wall with six fair looking spearwives and in Winterfell he arrived with six nieses and other familiy members.