The Letter [SPOILERS - ADWD]

[garion77]

This one seem simple... When the Bolton army marched out to meet Stannis, they were defeated. I think Roose himself was captured by Stannis. That's why Ramsey wanted Jon to send Stannis family to him as prisoners. Ramsey want to do a prisoner exchange. What other reason would Ramsey want with Stannis wife and daughter if Stannis himself is dead? He can't randsom them because all the Baretheons is dead and Stannis is technically a trader...

And the banker from the Iron Island also found Stannis. GRRM would not have the Iron Bank travel around the world to find Stannis and he die a minute later... And have Davos go through all the trouble to find Rickon so Manderly can support Stannis...

Ramsey is surrounded, desparate, and starving in his castle full of people who would love to cut his throat... Things was bad in the castle when Roose were there... Imagine how bad it is with Roose held prisoner by Stannis...

And Stannis is too good a commander to be defeated so easy... It took the combined power of Highgarden and Casterly Rock to beat him at the Blackwater... And even then Tyrion is the one who saved the day... If it wasn't for Tyrion, Tywin would not have made it in time...

 

[Tywin]

And Stannis is too good a commander to be defeated so easy... It took the combined power of Highgarden and Casterly Rock to beat him at the Blackwater... And even then Tyrion is the one who saved the day... If it wasn't for Tyrion, Tywin would not have made it in time...

The combined power of Highgarden and Casterly Rock utterly destroyed and humiliated him. Tyrion by himself nearly defeated him. I'm not sure where we all get this impression that Stannis is some god of war or something. I'm pretty sure that was Robert, not Stannis.

 

[Pilpel]

The combined power of Highgarden and Casterly Rock utterly destroyed and humiliated him. Tyrion by himself nearly defeated him. I'm not sure where we all get this impression that Stannis is some god of war or something. I'm pretty sure that was Robert, not Stannis.

This doesn't make him a god of war or anything - but he led the fleet against the first Greyjoy rebellion.
He also has certain qualities that are seemingly important in a military commander, he's cold-hearted, harsh and believes in discipline. But he lacks creativity, decisiveness, caring for his men and he's simply not inspiring. I wouldn't want to follow him into battle, although I'd gladly go with one of the Rob's.

 

[Pilpel]

And as far as theories about this go,
Could Ramsey truly believe that his armies had won while they actually lost? Lets assume for some reason that the forces in Wintefell rode out to meet Stannis. They joined forces, had a little bit of a battle to kill any Bolton-loyal men, and then reported back "Stannis is dead, we have Lightbringer and a bunch of lordling heads to give you to put on sticks". Now Ramsey's just trying to finish the job, kill the rest of Baratheon house, and with the same clever move also figure out whether Jon's a threat to him.
As for reasons why he would stay back, maybe it was to question Mance. Maybe it was too cold for him outside. Maybe certain people wanted him to stay back so he wouldn't interfere with them joining forces with Stannis.

 

[Tywin]

I think the desperate vindictive tone of the letter overall supports the idea that the Boltons lost, and that Ramsay knows it. He's furious in his impotence.

 

[Samwell]

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him... I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me,*******, and I will not trouble you or your black crows.

Here's the list of demands made in the letter. The writer is furious no doubt, whatever may have been the outcome of the battle.

But why does he makes one demand twice? Obviously for purposes of emphasis? It's the reeking Bolton.

Moreover, Mance is a gentle-spoken person, a singer who loves words and expressions. Remember his first meeting with Jon. It's really hard to imagine him writing this letter.

 

[Ursa major]

Mance has already played the part of someone** else: Rattleshirt. I daresay that he did his best to speak like Rattleshirt, otherwise his disguise might have been uncovered.








** - I'm discounting the fictional people Mance has pretended to be: Abel and Bael the Bard.

 

[Tywin]

I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch.

He's talking about Stannis as if he's still out there claiming to be a king.

 

[garion77]

But if Stannis is truely dead and defeated, why do he need his wife, daughter, and Mel? It don't make any sense... They don't hold any threat to him without Stannis.

But they would be the perfect hostages to get Stannis to surrender... If Ramsey got his hand on Stannis daughter, and frayed a few fingers, Stannis would be hard pressed to keep his siege on Winterfell...

And if Ramsy got his hands on Mel, it would cause a lot is issues for Stannis to try to keep all her followers in line knowing she is being tortured.

Ramsey isn't smart but he isn't all that dumb either...

 

[Needle]

But if Stannis is truely dead and defeated, why do he need his wife, daughter, and Mel? It don't make any sense... They don't hold any threat to him without Stannis.

But they would be the perfect hostages to get Stannis to surrender... If Ramsey got his hand on Stannis daughter, and frayed a few fingers, Stannis would be hard pressed to keep his siege on Winterfell...

And if Ramsy got his hands on Mel, it would cause a lot is issues for Stannis to try to keep all her followers in line knowing she is being tortured.

Ramsey isn't smart but he isn't all that dumb either...

I do not believe Stannis is dead but if he were Ramsey would still want his wife(she is from a noble family and a good hostage on her own) his daughter (the rightful heir if Stannis is gone) and Mel ( a powerful priestess) for himself.

 

[garion77]

I do not believe Stannis is dead but if he were Ramsey would still want his wife(she is from a noble family and a good hostage on her own) his daughter (the rightful heir if Stannis is gone) and Mel ( a powerful priestess) for himself.

Ramsey is of the North... Having a southern noble lady does him no good... And what good does the heir to Storm Ends benefit the North? I would understand if the Tyrells or even Lannister would want Stannis heir... But Ramsey? No...

Remember what Jon said... The north don't have any need for southern lords... Ramsey hands is full trying to hold the north... Why would he worry about Storm End? And the last time I checked Stannis was a traitor in the eyes of the crown... So his heir sitting in Storm End isn't going to happen...

Ramsey isn't smart enough to hatch much of a plan... But he is smart enough to know if he get the three closest to Stannis as hostages, he have a huge bargaining piece... They do it all the time in this series... That's how they kept Lord Manderly in line... They used his captured son against him...

 

[Timba]

I would say beyond a doubt that the letter is from Ramsay. It is consistent with his way of wording and rantings and signed by him. As to the information within the letter I am sure that he got it from the spearwife that stayed behind. It is stated that when "Arya" (Jeyne) was to be smuggled out she changed clothes with one of the spearwifes because no one would notice her among the five other spearwives. I image that Mance, five spearwifes and Jeyne escape together with Theon and that is consistent with the latter two showing up in Stannis' camp. Probably Mance and the spearwifes left for the Wall (or somewhere else). The remaining spearwife I expect were caught by Ramsay. She was then interrogated, thus revealing the information in the letter, before she was most likely skinned.

As to Abel = Mance there should be no doubt as Abel is an anagram for Bael the Bard which Mance used as an alias the last time he visited Winterfell undercover. Also he left the wall with six fair looking spearwives and in Winterfell he arrived with six nieses and other familiy members.

We know for sure that Jeyne escaped with Theon and during that escape 2 of the spearwives were killed. After they got Jeyne out of the tower Rowan, Willow and Myrtle went back for Abel and Frenya and Holly went with Theon and Jeyne. Jeyne screamed as the spearwives killed the gate guards and Freyna stopped to try and hold back the "kneelers" at the drawbridge. Holly and Theon got Jeyne to the top of the battlments. Holly was shot on the battlements by a crossbow and Frenya died at the drawbridge so 2 spearwives down for sure. Theon jumped with Jeyne. No sign of Abel, Rowan, Squirrel, Willow or Myrtle at this point.

I am convinced Abel is Mance. If he is not then we have to explain who exactly is this singer who showed up with 6 spearwives and just happened to be intent on freeing Arya (Jeyne) and it seems to me it would be a pretty strange story development that a total stranger would simply show up intent on the exact same mission that Mance had. Mance=Abel seems a pretty sure bet to me. Whether Mance (Abel) got away with Squirrel, Rowan, Willow and Myrtle is something I am clueless on and I do not think we were given any real info on this other than what the letter states and I agree with those who think the letter is simply a last desparate attempt by Ramsay who feels it all falling apart.

 

[garion77]

We know for sure that Jeyne escaped with Theon and during that escape 2 of the spearwives were killed. After they got Jeyne out of the tower Rowan, Willow and Myrtle went back for Abel and Frenya and Holly went with Theon and Jeyne. Jeyne screamed as the spearwives killed the gate guards and Freyna stopped to try and hold back the "kneelers" at the drawbridge. Holly and Theon got Jeyne to the top of the battlments. Holly was shot on the battlements by a crossbow and Frenya died at the drawbridge so 2 spearwives down for sure. Theon jumped with Jeyne. No sign of Abel, Rowan, Squirrel, Willow or Myrtle at this point.

I am convinced Abel is Mance. If he is not then we have to explain who exactly is this singer who showed up with 6 spearwives and just happened to be intent on freeing Arya (Jeyne) and it seems to me it would be a pretty strange story development that a total stranger would simply show up intent on the exact same mission that Mance had. Mance=Abel seems a pretty sure bet to me. Whether Mance (Abel) got away with Squirrel, Rowan, Willow and Myrtle is something I am clueless on and I do not think we were given any real info on this other than what the letter states and I agree with those who think the letter is simply a last desparate attempt by Ramsay who feels it all falling apart.

Of course Mance is Abel... I think most know that... Remember Mance played the Singer part when Robert came to Winterfell... That's when Mance first saw Jon... Remember when Jon was trying to convince Mance he had changed side and Jon said you remember seeing me at the ******* table... Mance know winterfell and I doubt Ramsey captured him.

Ramsay need some hostages for bargaining... Stannis have him pinned down in a castle that's running out of food... And with lord Manderly inside, the little food they have left will be gone very soon... Unless Manderly make a few more Frey pies...LOL

 

[TK-421]

But, what would Mance gain from taking Jeyne? Who gave him this mission?

 

[garion77]

But, what would Mance gain from taking Jeyne? Who gave him this mission?

Mel sent Mance... That was the main reason she didn't feed him to the fire... And Mance was going to save Arya Stark... He didn't know that Roose was pretending Jeyne was Arya... As far as Mel, Jon, and Mel know, Roose and Ramsey have the real Arya Stark...

 

[True Southron]

Is it at all possible that:

- Roose Bolton was defeated by Stannis;

- Ramsay Bolton was betrayed by Manderly, who has now taken Winterfell and opened the gates to Stannis;
(both of these sound more likely to me than a defeated Stannis)

- Mance (Abel, of course) has stolen Ramsay's seal in the ensuing confusion, fled Winterfell and joined up with wildlings somewhere north of Winterfell (Mole's Town or somewhere in the forest);

- His plan was to ambush and capture or kill Jon before he got to Winterfell, overpower the few leaderless men of the Night's Watch with the help of Tormund etc., take the Wall (and take revenge on Jon who betrayed him first);

- Then he could bargain with Stannis, who would be caught in the north in the middle of winter without his fortresses to fall back to, and minus a wife, a daughter and a priestess;

- and Mance will have Val and his (supposed) son back.

All the Reek and Arya talk was to sound more like Ramsay and to provoke Jon.

I think it was Mance.

 

[Tywin]

One simple and critical problem with this scenario is that the message came via raven, which means that a Maester (or someone trained by a Maester to keep the birds with a stocked aviary) was involved.

A raven is not a cell-phone, not everyone can just 'dial-up' a number and call.

 

[True Southron]

Yes... I thought about that...

If ravens "work" more or less like pigeons, each individual raven can only go to one place, right?

(I don't know much about pigeons either but I think that's the way they work... you remove them from one place and, when freed, they fly back instinctively to the place from which they were removed... is that it?)

I know Maesters are usually the keepers of ravens, but I doubt that the training of ravens is a great secret known only to them. Wildlings probably use ravens, too, and they have no Maesters. Mance, as a jack-of-all-trades, could well be capable of opening the cage marked "Castle Black", tying a note to the raven in it, letting it fly and then getting the hell out of Winterfell.

 

[Pilpel]

There's something I haven't understood for a while about Mance.

What's his motivation? Why would he go through all this trouble for a Stark girl? Who is also the sister of his biggest traitor and bringer of his downfall. I don't buy it that he's actually working for Jon - in which case, True Southron's theory fits.
Is it possible he's working for another cause? Maybe he was thinking of keeping Arya as a bargaining chip? A POV from him would really clarify things for me.
Or maybe Mel's controlling him, using the ruby.

 

[Timba]

Of course Mance is Abel... I think most know that... Remember Mance played the Singer part when Robert came to Winterfell... That's when Mance first saw Jon... Remember when Jon was trying to convince Mance he had changed side and Jon said you remember seeing me at the ******* table... Mance know winterfell and I doubt Ramsey captured him.

Ramsay need some hostages for bargaining... Stannis have him pinned down in a castle that's running out of food... And with lord Manderly inside, the little food they have left will be gone very soon... Unless Manderly make a few more Frey pies...LOL

Please direct your attention to comments 46 through 51 in this very thread. It would appear that "most" were not as aware or certain as you are. I agree with you assessment though, Mance=Abel.