SPOILERS: Theory on Jon

[Boaz]

Heartsbane and Eulalia, thanks for the information on Serra. There's so much I don't remember... it makes my theories that much easier to postulate! Look, you all make good arguments and I'd like to believe them, but there has to be one aspect of ASOIAF that I've figured out on my own... and A+L=J and Tyraen Targaryen are the only two left so one of them must be correct!

 

[pedro_1013]

I like the R+L=J theory, it has some problems as Boaz pointed out, but it's the best i heard so far.
But i see another problem with this theory (that also include the A+L=J), GRRM seems to give much importance to genetics, has we know he did with Robert bastards and also with the Lannister's and the Targaryen's, and Jon is said to have more Stark-like features than any of Ned´s children, he doesn't look like a Targaryen at all. Given the importance of genetics in the series, do you think it's still possibly for Jon's father to be Aerys or Rhaegar?

 

[Boaz]

Genetics are strong, but explain Catelyn's kids. It's not a hard and fast rule.

 

[viZion]

Genetics are strong, but explain Catelyn's kids. It's not a hard and fast rule.

Actually, I think Catelyn's kids explain Jon, too. I.e. it's not always the father's genes are dominant. Sometimes the kids look strongly like their mother instead of their father. That would be the case with Jon if Lyanna is his mother and Rhaegar or Aerys (it's Rhaegar though) is his father.

 

[Heartsbane]

Also Rhaegar already had a child that did not share his Targ features. His daughter Rhaenys is said to look like her mother Elia.

 

[pedro_1013]

Genetics are strong, but explain Catelyn's kids. It's not a hard and fast rule.

True, except for Arya all of them are more Tully. I meant that all Targaryen's appearance are similar, silver-blonde hair and purple eyes, and Jon is far from that. But i forgot about Rhaenys...

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

Personally I am with Heartsbane on this one, and that it is entirely possible that Rheagar and Lyanna Eloped. I don't think any of Boaz's arguments against this happening would stand up to the idea that Rheagar and Lyanna were in love and people in love do crazy and sometimes stupid things without thinking of the repercussions.

One Big question that I have, and that may have come from over analyzing the story, is why the kingsguard felt they needed to die to protect Lyanna from her own brother. Did they think he was going to go in there and kill her or her baby? If she was in love with Rheager it can be presumed that they were there to protect her, not to imprison her. the alternative, that she was a prisoner, is almost not woth mentioning because it would have been far below the honour and skill of the kingsguard to act as gaolers or turnkeys.

The only thing that makes sense would be that they would rather die than bend the knee to the usurper being that the rebellion was basically successfull at this point. So that means that their whole last stand was nothing more than that, a way for them to die with honour, but that leads me to the enigma of BFS. How is it that after the Mad King died, Barristan was able to stop fighting for him and not loose face? Nobody ever regards BFS as anything short of honourable and nobody brings up the fact that he apparently turned cloaks. If a Kingsguard's oath dies with the king, why did the last kingsguard need to die at the ToJ? Barristan was always painted as bieng loyal to the Mad king (I believe there was a tale about him breaking him out of jail by himself, blindfolded and with one hand tied behind his back)

 

[viZion]

Personally I am with Heartsbane on this one, and that it is entirely possible that Rheagar and Lyanna Eloped. I don't think any of Boaz's arguments against this happening would stand up to the idea that Rheagar and Lyanna were in love and people in love do crazy and sometimes stupid things without thinking of the repercussions.

Exactly. This is a point that most people forget when doing analysis of this series and these theories. I've tried several times in the past to make this exact point but it's always been ignored. Inventing theories and analyzing them is a cold, unfeeling business. Considering love isn't something that comes naturally when you're poring over chunks of prose looking for clues. Even though this story is not real, I think it helps to pretend like these are real people with real flaws if you want the greatest chance of finding the answers.

Rhaegar and Lyanna being in love and doing ridiculously crazy things that lead to ripping apart the entire Kingdom is something I can believe happened because it's something I can completely relate to. I met my own wife in a foreign country and within four months I'd moved her to the U.S. and married. That was ten years ago and we're still together. I would NEVER suggest doing things the way we did and I would be mortified if my own kids did it that way because it was stupid and crazy and had failure written all over it. But we did it anyway because we were in love and nothing could stop that. That's why I think R + L = J is true. Those two characters were in love and did some stupid things because of it. However, there's no reasoning with people when they are madly in love like that and that's what led to everything happening the way it did. If they had been able to control their urges then we wouldn't even have a series to read!

 

[Heartsbane]

Arsten I think the difference with BFS is that he did not bend the knee until he was severely wounded fighting with Rhaegar against Robert. By the time he healed there was little else he could do. He did not bend the knee prior to fighting which would have damaged his reputation, instead he fought bravely for the old King and then made peace with the new King, only enhancing his credibility as a honorable Knight.

Also I am not sure that the KG's oath dies with the King, aren't they said to be sworn for life? I also think they would be responsible for protecting the heir/s to the throne Thus ensuring the line of succession. I do not know all of their rules or orders but this would only make sense to me.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

I had forgotten that BFS was wounded in that fight. I thought he had surrendered when all was lost.

Also I am not sure that the KG's oath dies with the King, aren't they said to be sworn for life? I also think they would be responsible for protecting the heir/s to the throne Thus ensuring the line of succession. I do not know all of their rules or orders but this would only make sense to me.

This makes sense to me too, which reinforces the idea that Jon was somehow in the line of succession from Rheagar. He couldn't have been Aegon's son because then Viserys would still have a better claim, being older and a truebord heir of Aegon. And whatever the Sword of the Morning said about Kingsguards not fleeing is not particularly true. Maybe they wouldn't run away and abandon their king, but if thei king was retreating (as Viserys did to Dragonstone) the logical thing would be to retreat with him to be able to continue to protect him. Which would seem to be what they did by going to the Tower of Joy. the ToJ was certainly not on the front line, so they must have fallen back to a place where they could better protect whoever they were supposed to be protecting

 

[All Men Must Die]

The one thing people need to remember is that the Targs always marry brother with sister, unless there is not an even amount. Then they will marry someone from another house. Like Rhaegar did with Dorne.

The other thing people need to remember is that they didn't always pick the firstborn to the the next King. Remember the story of Maester Aemon in NW. How they tried to make him the King three times but he always refused saying he was a Maester now.

So that tells you that Rhaegar could have easily told the Kingsguards that Lyanna's son will be the next king.

 

[clownphoenix]

Not sure if this was mentioned or not, but thought of when I was listening to the audio book of aGoT at work for me reread, is that Ned tells Jon on the Kingsroad when they part ways that the next time they meet, the he will tell him of his mother. This is because by then Jon would have taken the black and be a man of the Night's Watch, out of reach of Robert Baratheon and his rage against the Targareons just like Aemon is, which explains why we know Aemon is a Targareon, to hint that Robert's rage ends there, thus Jon would be out of danger, and his promise to Lyanna fulfilled.

 

[Rolynd]

Just watched the google online web interview with GRRM from a couple of years ago. He talks in it about avoiding the forums because of people's theories. He worried whether his reaction would be to alter his story if people guessed right, or see better ideas and think he should somehow work it in. He came to the conclusion that he was better off avoiding them altogether and writing his story as he had always intended it to be.

This to me says that we are looking into the whole debate of Jon's parentage too much. I would say it's pretty obvious that R+L=J, all the fore-shadowing is there and anything else at this point would probably feel a bit like it's come out of nowhere. I think people are looking at alternative theories because they think that R+L=J is a bit twee in some way, but they are looking for ways around the clues that are palpably there. Occam's Razor - the reason it's the most popular theory is probably because it makes sense and is correct!

I don't think GRRM would throw in a load of clues just to throw people onto the wrong track, when stuff has happened that was foreshadowed, generally when you look back the clues were there and tie in.

All that said it'll probably turn out completely differently now!

 

[Yavannie]

Didn't the HBO show writers say that they had been asked a question by GRRM before being allowed to adapt the show, and that question had been who Jon's mother was. They haven't said who their guess was, but apparently Martin seemed pleased enough with the reply to let them go ahead with it. I think that further supports the opininon that the "obvious" answer is the right one. I say "obvious" because I didn't catch it at all the first time I read the books. Neither did anyone else I know irl.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

Didn't the HBO show writers say that they had been asked a question by GRRM before being allowed to adapt the show, and that question had been who Jon's mother was. They haven't said who their guess was, but apparently Martin seemed pleased enough with the reply to let them go ahead with it. I think that further supports the opininon that the "obvious" answer is the right one. I say "obvious" because I didn't catch it at all the first time I read the books. Neither did anyone else I know irl.

I certainly didn't. I can thank this forum for my now firm belief that R+L=J.

Also, I just reread the first book and I don;t remember Ned promising Jon that they would talk about Jon's mother the next time they saw each other. I think that was just something that happened in the show... Can someone point me to the chapter that it happens in if it does happen? I just reread the Chapter when jon leaves KL and the first Chapter following Neds departure and it didn't appear in either.

 

[clownphoenix]

You might be right, I might just be remembering it from the show, which if that is the case, then it matches up with the show then as well.

 

[LilyDraken]

You might be right, I might just be remembering it from the show, which if that is the case, then it matches up with the show then as well.

I'm fairly sure it's from the show. I also quite recently reread GoT and don't recall it. Though it was a really nice touch from the show.

 

[clownphoenix]

I'm fairly sure it's from the show. I also quite recently reread GoT and don't recall it. Though it was a really nice touch from the show.

If we take the show to follow the story for the major points, it could be some foreshadowing/spoilers from the show. The creators of the show know from GRRM who Jon Snows parents are, or at least his mother, so this could be something they threw in there that fits with it being L+R=J.

 

[Ashen]

I've just listened to the Audio book, and i noticed that when Ned has the hallucinations in the cell, he remembers making the promise to Lyanna "on her bloody bed"

a little later when Dany meets the Magai, she is told that she has experience "with the bloody bed"

(sorry if this has been picked up before, I'm about to go through the 19 ages before)

 

[Yavannie]

I had a random thought which doesn't really fit into any thread, so I'll just stick it here. I'm neither a believer nor a fan of Jon/Daenerys shipping, but a lot of people seem to think they will end up together. It just struck me that this would be the ultimate insult to Jorah Mormont - the love of his life ending up with a guy who owns the Valyrian steel blade that could have been his. What a burn.