A Dance With Dragons: Speculation?

[Ghost of Harrenhal]

Well I did a search and couldn't find any other posts that were purely about what might be inside ADWD so I thought I'd start one. Does anyone have any interesting ideas that they are just dying to share? Any crackpot theories that might be explained in the next book such as Jon actually being one of Robert's *******'s that he got on Catelyn? And Catelyn was just bitter because Jon reminded her of her own unfaithfulness? Hmmm... I think so!

While you're here discussing ADWD, you might also be interested to know that when George's editor told people at comic-con that he was almost finished, she also let it be known that he had 1000 pages finished that would not be changed from now on, as well as several hundred other pages that may be changed. That is a whopper!

AGOT and ACOK and AFFC numbered at 800 and something pages and the combined books of ASOS numbered at around 1200 pages. (UK versions this is) So to put it into perspective, ADWD may come out as long as ASOS was and it is just one novel. I know the American versions of ASOS were released as one whole book but AFFC and ADWD used to be the same book so it has already been divided and now it still might come out at the same length.

Has this already been discussed? I was afraid we'd get another book like AFFC that seemed to take me 5 minutes to read but it looks like this book will be pretty weighty and it's got all the best characters in it.

 

[Werthead]

While you're here discussing ADWD, you might also be interested to know that when George's editor told people at comic-con that he was almost finished, she also let it be known that he had 1000 pages finished that would not be changed from now on, as well as several hundred other pages that may be changed. That is a whopper!

AGOT and ACOK and AFFC numbered at 800 and something pages and the combined books of ASOS numbered at around 1200 pages. (UK versions this is) So to put it into perspective, ADWD may come out as long as ASOS was and it is just one novel. I know the American versions of ASOS were released as one whole book but AFFC and ADWD used to be the same book so it has already been divided and now it still might come out at the same length.

Has this already been discussed? I was afraid we'd get another book like AFFC that seemed to take me 5 minutes to read but it looks like this book will be pretty weighty and it's got all the best characters in it.

GRRM and his editor were talking about manuscript pages, which is what the book looks like double-spaced on A4 sheets before it goes off to be formatted for publication. Books in MS form are always longer than they are in standard book form.

For comparison purposes:

AGoT: 1,100 MS pages
ACoK: 1,300 MS pages
ASoS: 1,500 MS pages
AFFC: 1,100 MS pages

ADWD is planned to come in at 1,200 MS pages, so longer than AFFC or AGoT but shorter than ASoS and ACoK.

 

[Ursa major]

Thanks for those figures, Werthead; like GoH, I was beginning to think ADWD was going to be a real whopper (or be divided into two ).

 

[Ghost of Harrenhal]

Bugger...

 

[Eulalia]

I still favour Cersei becoming a Silent Sister for a while as a dodge to avoid the executioner.But maybe Jaime will take her out soon, for her to escape a more messy death.

The Un cat has got to go soon, because I think that character is not sustainable. Maybe she will finally find Sansa, and a horrified PB will do her in.

Maybe Shireen will end up with Willas Tyrell. It would tie up some loose ends.

 

[Syphon of Oor-Tael]

Something just hit me when Eulalia posted her above post. There is a whopper of a parallel with the King Arthur legend. As a student of English Literature and Culture, I've had Heroes of Romance and as such, I know a thing or two about the whole King Arthur saga. In one of the versions, after being unfaithful with Mordred, Guinevere actually becomes a nun to either dodge the blame or as genuine atonement. It would fit, you know. Cersei as Guinevere, Jaime as Mordred and Robert as Arthur.
Just a quick thought here..

But on tho thet opic at hand. I woukld not be surprised if the Dance in the title is actually the difficulty Dany has with her babies. You surely remember the teaser chapter, in which it turns out that one of them ate a child. I believe that the people in the east will finally get tired of her and her dragons and after a huge stand-up fight, force her westwards. After a brief reprise of the Fields of Fire, that is. All the slaver cities band together because she was a jerk to them. She is forced to unleash them in support of the Unsullied, who are simply outnumbered by many times their own number. However, after seeing what she did, she goes in self-imposed exile and crosses west once she realises her dragons have become real weapons but she also can't stay there.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

One dead Greyjoy. At a minimum.

 

[TK-421]

Lots more warging. Perhaps some Stark sibling reunion.

The death of Stannis.

 

[Bazza]

I think the wall will fall, Dany can't possibly make it in time can she? It would make for a more dire situation if the wall weren't there to keep the Others out. Imagine the dead sweeping south across the northern wastes. Westeros would be in some serious trouble.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

I think we all expect The Others to make it to the Trident... so yeah, the wall probably has to fall for that to happen.

I'll second a dead Stannis, TK. The question is whether he ends up dead dead or as an Other/Wight.

 

[TK-421]

Reek's rescue.

 

[Boaz]

I think we all expect The Others to make it to the Trident... so yeah, the wall probably has to fall for that to happen.

Since the Night's Watch is tied to the Wall (their vow includes a phrase about standing watch), this would mean that the Black Cloaks will die to a man... including Lord Snow. Somehow I don't see Jon retreating to Moat Cailin.

I'll second a dead Stannis, TK. The question is whether he ends up dead dead or as an Other/Wight.

This had not occurred to me. Ugh.

 

[TK-421]

I'll second a dead Stannis, TK. The question is whether he ends up dead dead or as an Other/Wight.

That's unless Mel burns him in her fires. She may be looking for a new AA reborn and found him in Jon. She's also getting her own POV in ADWD which should make things very interesting.

While we are on that subject on POV's (and I know we have done this before but cannot find the thread), am I correct in the following list of confirmed POV's? (help Wert!!)

***SPOILERS***





Varamyr Sixskins
Tyrion
Dany
Jon
Bran
Davos
Asha
Arya
Sansa
Reek (Theon)
Melissandre
Quentyn

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night and all the nights to come.

I don't think that the oath has to mean that The Watch will die to a man defending to the wall. Their ultimate job is to defend the realms of men, and if that means a strategic retreat from an indefensible position I think their oath requires them to fall back.

That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper's rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened.

Boaz, do you not think Dany's vision of facing an army 'armored all in ice' at the Trident was more metaphorical (ASoS)? Looking over that prophecy now it's less obviously literal then I remembered, but I've always taken it to mean that Dany's real task isn't to reclaim her family's trone but to face The Others. I've always assumed that the wall will have to come down at some point... So much of the story hinges on the Trident, it sort of feels right for the final confrontation to be where Robert defeated Rhaegar and won the throne.

TK, that looks like the right POV list to me, do we have any idea of the disposition of those chapters? We know the Varamyr will only get the prologue (with all that implies about his fate)... Somehow I doubt we're going to see much of Mel, it seems to me that she falls in the category of of 'characters who know too much' making it hard to sustain her POV without giving away too much. I've always sort of figure her POV would be an epilogue sort of thing as she and Stannis are overrun by the Others and she realizes just how badly she's misread the signs (something she's admitted is possible). How much significance do y'all think we should place on the fact that Stannis and Mel **** Spoiler Alert**** are moving into the same castle that Night's King and his Corpse Queen occupied. That doesn't seem to bode well for the two of them.

 

[Ghost of Harrenhal]

Mel is gonna be a new POV? Why is this the first I've heard of it!? When was it confirmed? This is exciting news indeed.. even if it is not news for all of you! I wonder what that will be like.. I somehow think Illifer has the right of it.

Somehow I doubt we're going to see much of Mel, it seems to me that she falls in the category of of 'characters who know too much' making it hard to sustain her POV without giving away too much.

I always assumed she knew a lot more than she was letting on and if we get a full insight into her thoughts it would all have to come spilling out. It would be like having a Littlefinger POV.

Wow... Now I really wonder how GRRM will play this.

 

[Ursa major]

Wow... Now I really wonder how GRRM will play this.

One could assume that GRRM has also been wondering about that.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

Mel's sort of an interesting case isn't she? While it does seem like she knows more then she's letting on she pretty much has to be very wrong about some things,reading fire's signs incorrectly. Or she's working for the other side. The business with Stannis' sword is very strange as it's hard to believe that his enchanted sword is really Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes, as it hasn't been tempered in any loved ones and doesn't give off any heat. Maester Aemon remarks as much when Stannis shows him the sword.

The more I think about that, the more that all bothers me. Mel has either totally fooled herself or she's playing a game I don't understand. What's the point of making someone believe they're AA reborn if you know they're not?

But she's one of the only extant characters who we can be pretty sure has read all the prophecies pertaining to what's going on. Who else is there? Marwyn maybe, but everyone else I can think of who would know seems to be dead. Am I missing anybody? She may very well be a vessel for GRRM to info dump on The Prince Who Was Promised and all that as I suspect we're moving into a story that's less about the political machinations of various players in Westeros and into a more 'fate of the world hinges on the outcome' sort of situation.

The story of the never ending battle between Rhallor and The Great Other has really only been told in hints and pieces thus far. I wonder if Mel's POV is going to change that, as well as singling a change in the focus of the series.

 

[Boaz]

Illifer, I'd not remembered (or else I never even gave any credence to) Dany's dream that you mentioned. Ummmm, it seems pretty cut and dried. Now I know that armies have fought successful delaying actions and armies have retreated by adopting a scorched earth policy while avoiding battle. The accounts of the Greeks in Anabasis, Rome's Fabian tactics, the Russian defence against Napoleon, Napoleon's retreat from Russia, Mao's Long March, and the North Afrika Korps' retreat are all examples of either a long strategic retreat or a defense against an unstoppable foe. Russia defeated Napoleon in large part due to not fighting and letting the elements themselves beat the French, but in trying to compare this to Westeros... don't the Others bring their own weather with them? The warmth of the south will be turned to cold... it will favor the invaders. I don't think Jon can adopt Fabian tactics south of the Wall, he does not have the strength to hole up somewhere... the Wall is his defense... it has magical properties to stop the Others. I don't think Jon can replicate Xenophon's retreat because he does not hold a significant advantage in training, morale, command, and technology like the Greeks did. Well, if all of the NW had dragonglass daggers and arrows, then they'd hold the tech edge and thus a morale edge, I think.

Also, in the above retreats none of the armies involved had to retreat the distance that Jon and NW will face in falling back to Moat Cailin, let alone marching all the way to the Trident. Looking at one of the recent maps that Werthead linked, I make it 1,200 miles from Castle Black to Moat Cailin... and another 800 miles to the Ruby Ford. In contrast, it's about 750 miles from Moscow to Warsaw... the Afrika Korps gave up around 1,500 miles in the eighteen months after El Alamein... And I don't see Jon keeping his force together over that distance with demons and undead creatures on their heels. I imagine it would be more like the British retreat from Kabul in 1841... one man, out of 12,000, survived to tell the tale.

Mayhaps the example to look at is the retreat of the Nez Perce in 1877. 800 men, women and children retreated 1,700 miles over three months with 2,000 U.S. Cavalry on their heels. The Nez Perce successfully defended themselves for a time, but were ultimately brought to bay by superior numbers and inclement weather.

I remember Coltaine's retreat in Deadhouse Gates and Hile Troy's retreat in The Illearth War as examples of major strategic retreats in fantasy.

I dunno... I just don't see Jon and the NW successfully making all the way back to the Trident. Mayhaps they'll fall back to White Harbor where Jon will find Rickon and thence to the Riverlands.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

So do you see the series climaxing at the wall then? A big massive battle with an under-manned and out gunned Night's Watch barely holding the line until the Dany shows up with her three pets and starts a little bonfire?

I guess it never even occurred to me that wall would survive the series intact. As long as there's a massive magical wall the Others can't cross, they're not really that much of a threat to Westeros right? As long as the wall is standing our brave heroes can just retreat behind its icy embrace and smile while the Others snarl in frustration beow.

From a narrative perspective, doesn't it have to come down and force a confrontation? Somebody's going to blow the Horn of Winter or do something similarly stupid and then we're going to be in a world of hurt. (my money's on Melissandre, either in an attempt to find a dragon egg or because she's playing for the other side... but I guess it could be just about anybody).

The 13th Lord Commander of the Watch was an Other, corrupted by his beautiful queen, now Stannis and Mel are moving into their old castle. The Red Woman has built up Stannis as Azor Ahai and given him a magic sword that is almost certainly not what she claims it is. It just seems like there will be some bad juju going down at the wall, and it just seems that as long as the wall stands the Others threat is not that vital.

The very first thing thing we're introduced to in the series is north of the Wall, a party of rangers is killed by an Other. The pall of that has hung over the entire subsequent series. It's always seemed a tragedy, and a little ironic that so much blood has been spilt battling for the iron throne while the real menace was massing, unremarked, north of the wall. As Osha told Bran, 'they're marching the wrong way.'

I guess i've always just assumed that, at some point, the Others would arrive and smash to pieces everyone's plots and intrigues... forcing Westeros to band together (however uneasily) to face the menace that imperils everyone, Lannister, Stark, Tyrell, and Martell alike. For anything like that to happen The Wall has to come down.

Right?

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

I guess, what i'm trying (without much success) to express... is that the series thus far has sort of split neatly in my mind into supernatural and mundane worlds.

Thus far, we've seen much more of the mundane. We've seen the grim and gritty world where kings are poisoned and an ambush at wedding accomplishes something a dozen battles could not. The machinations and political backbiting of Kings Landing, the world where the Tyrell's swords make them a force to be reckoned with, the world where Petyr Baelish can unbalance one rival after another has felt very separate to me from the world where glass candles burn and Night's Watch faces down a nameless dread, where dragons fly and Daenerys the Unburnt visits the house of the undying. The world of the Maesters is a different palce then the world of the Pyromancers.

It seems to me though, that those two worlds are going to collide and Lord Littlefinger and his ilk will find that they live in a very different world then they think they do. And it's hard for me to see how those worlds can be forced to coexist without something forcing the issue. It sure feels like the Others are that something and for them to accomplish their task they're going to have to circumvent the wall somehow.

Or, I've just misunderstood the story I'm reading.