Though expressed as a percentage of the whole, that's surely a very narrow field.
Eek! You mean I should have been producing stats showing the breakdown of votes for newbies versus old timers as well as everything else...??
Three points I can think of quickly, two from the figures, one from human nature.
First, there are more oldies here than newbies. Just taking November's figures there were 49 entrants, of whom 35 joined in 2009 or earlier, and only 14 are 2010 members. I'm not a statistician but I'm pretty sure this means it is more likely on a statistical basis that one of the oldies will win. Moreover, many of the 2010 newbies we've seen in earlier months have only entered once or twice, and so their chances of winning aren't as high cumulatively as someone who has entered every month.
Second, the story always trumps the story-teller. In November alchemist, who joined in September, got 4 votes. That was more than the
total votes cast for Boneman, Mouse, HareBrain, me, Teresa and Parson ie 6 previous winners/tie-breakers. Sephiroth and chopper didn't enter, but of the 9 entrants on the "Hall of Fame" only Hoopy came in with more votes than alchemist. In this respect, I'd also mention Mag the Mighty. He failed to score last month but before that he had entered two Challenges and received 4 votes each time. As an average that was better than anyone, even HareBrain.
Third, human nature being what it is, it is inevitable that we favour some people more than others. If I dislike someone because of his postings elsewhere on the Chrons, I am unlikely to pay a great deal of attention to his work, or do so only grudgingly. (I say "I" but in fact I can't think of anyone to whom this would apply in my own case -- so this ought perhaps to read as "If one dislikes...") So on that basis newbies start at an advantage! But just because I like someone from his other postings doesn't mean I'll vote for a story if it doesn't gel with me for whatever reason -- and, in fact, I might not vote for a person I like so as to avoid any hint of favouritism.
As to whether getting more votes means one story is better than another, to my mind, no it doesn't mean that. In fact, I have never yet voted in first instance for the story which won, and I consider the votelessness of some entries to be astonishing. But that is the problem with only having one vote...