Ever since I thought Jon was AA (which has been a good while now) I have always thought that Jon would warg into Snow to survive a "death" and then warg back into his body. So on the record, that is my best bet as to what will happen with his cliffhanger. However, I am not totally convinced. Especially after my last two re-reads. I just can't shake the first chapter (Varamyr) and Jon's development over the whole book, especially his last chapter. So let's run with it.
I am convinced, however, that we must read Jon Snow's final POV chapter in light of the first chapter of the book. The symmetry is all there. If you are skeptical, just read the first chapter, then all of Jon's POVs in one sitting. It seems pretty clear that Varamyr's chapter is to lay the foundation for Jon's choosing of his second life, and there are some disturbing hints at what that second life might be.
So what are my assumptions (besides the one I stated above):
1. Jon is dead. His second life will be unique.
If Jon's story is connected to Varamyr's then I would say yes. Definitely. You have to experience true death in order to have your second life. In Varamyr's chapter the cold is a reference to death, not the cellars, not the Others showing up, not almost death - but death. True death. The death that leads to second life. The reason that the statement he didn't feel the fourth knife isn't a violation of POV is because Jon is in the second life out of body state. He can see himself. The reason he whisper's Ghost is he is "seeing" or connecting to possible warging targets like Varamyr did. This has a great symmetry with the prophecies of AA being reborn amidst smoke and salt. Second life. AA reborn. Again, it is very powerfully connected. This leads to me think that Jon's death is real, and that his second life will be substantially unique given his role in the story. This is not even to mention Aemon's "kill the boy, become the man" foreshadowing.
2. Our narrators are mostly reliable.
This is the real problem for Needle's theory. GRRM would violate everything he cares about in storytelling to make the "2 hour gap" about a convoluted glamor-warg-plot to secure Jon's safety (as much as I love that theory). We have had semi-unreliable narrators, but nothing so horrible. It would be horrific writing. Cheap. Non-Martinian. What we see is what we get for the most part.
3. Jon's death scene and its resolution will tie together all the elements GRMM has been building for us in Jon's story.
The absence of the Queen. The absence of her knights. The plotting of the Night's Watch. The cellars. Mel's visions / interest in Snow. The mysterious dream Jon had (is particularly interesting).
So given these assumptions, what are the options?
1. Ghost.
Ghost is a likely option. We learn about how there is a choice involved in the second life as Varamyrs weighs his options during his death. Varamyr is taken "out of body" and chooses old One Eye (out of many options) for his second life. I think this is part of what we see with Jon when he whispers, "Ghost". But if this is a true second life I don't think Jon will choose Ghost. I think the queensmen knights / Night's Watch have killed or are also killing Ghost (which is why the other knights are absent and not just Sir Patrek). There is certainly evidence/hints for it in the last couple of chapters and in the story. Also, when the Starks don't listen to their direwolves, it all goes bad. Especially for the wolves. It is possible the knights, the queen and the remaining crows have schemed to change the situation at the wall in all of their favors. If fact, I don't think Bowen goes through with the assassination UNLESS the knights are in on it as well. Otherwise, they cannot overpower the wildlings there with Tormund, and the Snow sympathizers. Think about it. The Queen wants Val and a different Lord Commander. Sir Patrek wants Val. Bowen Marsh and others want Jon dead and the Wall restored to "normal". And one thing no one has mentioned on any forums I've frequented is this simple reality: any half descent scheme to kill Jon, has to include killing Ghost as well. I feel dirty for typing it, but it is true. Sadly, Jon has Ghost locked up in a confined space. If GRMM wants us to feel pain at Jon's "resurrection" but not the pain of losing Jon forever, the way to do it is to take the direwolf. One way for Jon to "kill the boy" is through losing the only family he has had on the wall, his Ghost.
Regardless of my musings, keeping in mind that I think the text leads us to a true second life coming for Jon and not just a haha warg'd out, heal me up, warg back, then Ghost is not possible. Jon is too important as a POV, etc to simply be in Ghost for the rest of the story.
2. Not Wun Wun, the Boar or any human nearby.
For similar reasons above and for abomination rules these are not true second life options. In the first chapter we read that eventually, if you second life into an animal, over time you lose yourself in that animal eventually. You merge / their psyche takes over eventually. So this wouldn't be possible for Jon.
3. The dead corpses in the cells.
So is there another option that is not Ghost, not Wun Wun, nor a human that Jon could, in his desperation, warg into? Yes. One of the wight bodies in the cellar. Perfectly preserved and not just rotting away like his own corpse would. Potentially, Jon wouldn't even have to "lose" himself eventually in this second life. He could inhabit this new body for good. It also makes sense of his dream where he is AA fighting the Others as they scramble up the Wall, he looks like himself, but different, "armored in black ice" (like an Other?) wielding his a flaming sword.
I think it is a stretch, and I personally hope for a Ghost warg - back into his own body once it has recovered. But for some reason this makes more sense to me every time I read it. AND I think this would account for the kinds of changes that need to happen to Jon's character in just 2 books to make him the bad ass he needs to be, the hardening of his resolve to be AA.
Thoughts?