The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

[HareBrain]

How long has it been since ADOD?

2011. Much longer, and it'll start cropping up in the "What's the oldest book you own?" thread.

 

[Judderman]

I'm still confident in TWOW coming out at some point. However George's plan from last year of it being ready by this summer looks in tatters. He is doing some good card promotion though.
I think we can only comment on ADOS chances after TWOW comes out. Hopefully TWOW removes all the plot tangles and makes the final part easier to write... though I doubt it

My latest guess for TWOW release is May 2021. Surely done by then :O

 

[Boaz]

It has to be done by then, and stop calling me Shirley.

 

[Boaz]

While perusing this thread, why do I hear Buddy Holly singing That'll Be the Day?

 

[svalbard]

Today he confirmed that it will be next year.

 

[HareBrain]

Today he confirmed that it will be next year.

I think you mean "confirmed that it won't be before next year".

 

[Ursa major]

It could be that "next year" is merely "mañana" on a much more generous timescale.

 

[Ori Vandewalle]

Whatever the case, we have seen time and time again that GRRM is extremely bad at estimating the pace of his own writing. I was glad to hear he's working on it, but I put no stock in his predictions one war or another.

 

[Boaz]

Exerpts (selected by me) from GRRM's Not A Blog entry of June 23, 2020.

If nothing else, the enforced isolation has helped me write. I am spending long hours every day on THE WINDS OF WINTER, and making steady progress. I finished a new chapter yesterday, another one three days ago, another one the previous week. But no, this does not mean that the book will be finished tomorrow or published next week. It’s going to be a huge book, and I still have a long way to go. Please do not give any credence to any of the click-bait websites that like to parse every word of my posts as if they were papal encyclicals to divine hidden meanings.

...I can always visit Wellington next year, when I hope that both Covid-19 and THE WINDS OF WINTER will be done.

...Of late I have been visiting with Cersei, Asha, Tyrion, Ser Barristan, and Areo Hotah. I will be dropping back into Braavos next week. I have bad days, which get me down, and good days, which lift me up, but all in all I am pleased with the way things are doing.

I do wish they would go faster, of course. Way way back in 1999, when I was deep in the writing of A STORM OF SWORDS, I was averaging about 150 pages of manuscript a month. I fear I shall never recapture that pace again. Looking back, I am not sure how I did it then. A fever indeed.

But up here on the mountain, all of that that seems very distant, and much of it has stuttered to a halt in any case, until Covid goes away.

Mostly, it’s just me in Westeros, with occasional side trips to other places in the pages of a great book.

Now you will have to excuse me. Arya is calling. I think she means to kill someone.

Hopefully finished in 2021 means..... in the future.

 

[svalbard]

Was there a story some while back that book was almost written and it was with the publishers. Or is it a false memory of mine?

 

[Ori Vandewalle]

I think one of the theories is that he had some or most of the book completed but then decided to scrap and rewrite a very large chunk due to changing something early on in the book.

 

[Overread]

I think one of the theories is that he had some or most of the book completed but then decided to scrap and rewrite a very large chunk due to changing something early on in the book.

I know one of the early reported issues was that he was going to put a time jump in to allow the young characters to age-up to continue the story. Wrote a whole bunch and then abandoned that idea. Likely because he probably found himself almost writing an entirely new story (you change a lot as you grow older esp through such major formative events as the story plays out). So likely felt that whilst they'd work better as older characters; they have to remain young and he has to adjust the story to suit.

 

[Elckerlyc]

OK, so he won't finish TWOW this year. Perhaps (hopefully) he is writing this with ADOS in mind, so that the final volume will be easier (and above all) quicker for him to write.
Anyway, suppose he does finish TWOW about this time next year. Now, if I have understood it correctly, there is about a one year interval between a writer sending his manuscript to the publisher and the actual releasing of the book. Publishing cost a lot of time and preparation.
My prognoses is that you won't see TWOW in the bookshops before June 2022.

 

[Temperance]

Was there a story some while back that book was almost written and it was with the publishers. Or is it a false memory of mine?

I think it has been claimed a couple of times in the pre-publicity.

Personally, I think it's just a case or being written into a corner,. They way to end it involves another 5-6 books explaining where these saviours came from, much like when various major power groups are killed off and then there is suddenly this other powerblock - rarely mentioned - who are really in control.

 

[Trollheart]

I love the guy, and concur with Neil's contention that he is not our bitch, and I do not mean any disrespect to the man, but "averaging 150 pages a month"? That doesn't seem so much when you break it down. That's approx 37 a week or between 5 and 6 a day. Of course, this is presumably perfect, finished, edited and ready-to-go, linking-up-plotlines manuscript, and I can't talk as I haven't written anything in weeks, but it seems to me to be a rather small figure to be waxing fondly lyrical over and not believing he could get back to that again. I would have thought more. After all, Stephen King wrote Pet Semetary AND Christine in the same year.

Hate mail to the usual address....

 

[Ori Vandewalle]

Well, I think that's about a NaNoWriMo average, depending on page length.

 

[Ursa major]

There are dozens (if not hundreds) of interconnected threads (with a commensurate number of characters) to consider, so producing 150 pages a month is a herculean effort.

 

[svalbard]

There are dozens (if not hundreds) of interconnected threads (with a commensurate number of characters) to consider, so producing 150 pages a month is a herculean effort.

I think you are spot on with this Ursa. To some extent this may be his most difficult book to write yet. Depending how he moves the plot along and closes off other storylines, ADOS might actually end up a more simpler task to write

 

[Judderman]

Well that is sad news from GRRM. Despite devoting his time to the book he is still far off. Though I'm a bit surprised it is so far off if he has done 3 chapters in around a week and a half.

 

[Bick]

There are dozens (if not hundreds) of interconnected threads (with a commensurate number of characters) to consider, so producing 150 pages a month is a herculean effort.

That's not the problem though. He's had 10 years to write it since he finished the last one. Even if its 1200 pages, that's only 10 pages a month - maybe two-three paragraphs each day. Even if he spent 75% of his time attending conferences and working on his blog rather than getting on with it its still only 40 pages a month. My prediction - the series is never actually going to be finished.