Let's form a crackpot theory together

[The Imp]

As many of you know, I'm fascinated by the Faceless Men. The most common person that people think MIGHT be a Faceless Man posing as someone that they aren't is Syrio Forel. Someone who posts regularly on tuis board speculated that Eddard Stark MAY have been replaced by a FM and is actually still alive i've also speculated that varys might be one.

So I was think today about the prologue chapter to aFFC. I have always assumed that the reason for Jaqan to kill pate and take his identity was to have a way of infiltrating the Citadel, for reasons we can't be sure about. I think that much is fairly obvious. What is also obvious, which never really occurred to me before is, GRRM was, IMO, sending a very strong meesage to his readers that ANYONE (except for POV characters) could be a FM. Anyone could have been killed and replaced, and any character that we have met along the way COULD be a FM.

We could probably rule out someone like Littlefinger, who seems to have more knowledge about other characters than a FM possibly could. Melisandre would have been an interesting contender, but her POV in aDWD legitimizes her as real.

Ramsay would be fairly easy to impersonate. The FM would just have to be cruel and sadistic. illyrio has always intrigued me, as I wonder how a man of his "stature' could get into the Red Keep so easily. How about Lady Olenna? Or even Mance Rayder? Almost anyone is fair game.

Thoughts?

 

[Needle]

Okay, this will require some thought. First, Imp do we have any real idea what it is the FM want? Having a possible goal in mind will help to determine who they may wish to be.

 

[The Imp]

Okay, this will require some thought. First, Imp do we have any real idea what it is the FM want? Having a possible goal in mind will help to determine who they may wish to be.

Well, my existing crackpot theory about the FM has Varys either being a FM or at least in some way being connected. If that's true, then we can look at what Varys did at the end of aDWD and assume that they want discord in the realm in order to make it easier for Dany? Aegon? to take over.

The question that we have no real answer to is, are they working FOR someone, or are they running the show? I'm also very intrigued by the Braavosi banker- Tycho Nestoris.

I suppose that we should identify which person or people in the series could do the most damage if they weren't who we thought they were.

Someone such as Euron, or one of the Boltons.

 

[joshrackley]

I'm with Needle on this -- we need to establish their goal (or at least form a crackpot theory about it on which we can base a further crackpot theory ). Several ideas have been put forth (on this forum and elsewhere) as the main objective of the FM: simple mercenaries hired to weaken the kingdom so that a new ruler can be put in place, fighting for their own cause against the dragons and their masters, etc. Another possibility goes like this: FM worship the Many-Faced God (MFG); the MFG is the incarnation of death in all different religions; believers in R'hllor think that the Great Other is cold, death, etc.; therefore, the FM worship the Great Other and are at odds with R'hllor. Since worshippers of the MFG believe that death is a merciful end to suffering, they could view it as ending the suffering for everyone in the world if the Others won.

So let's pick an objective and run with it .

 

[Needle]

okay, I am going to have to start with, I guess you'd say. an elimination process. If it can't be a POV character, we need to figure out who has the most influence on said POV characters.

Jon Snow-who does Jon listen to that is not a POV?
Stannis? Now there is a possibility.

Dany-I don't think she trusts anyone at this point, but what about the little slave girl (can't remember her name!) She is close to Dany and seems to know more than a young girl should!

Cersei-doesn't listen to anyone, even when she should!

Arya-she is in their temple, may end up one herself. Where does that leave us?

Jaime-My guess for FM here is Payne! Knows Jaime's secrets.

Sansa-has no one but Littlefinger, and I agree Imp, probably not him, he knows to much about too many, or does he?

Bran-Meera?

All I got for now. Of the one's I thought of here, I think the one who could do the most damage is most likely Stannis. Thoughts?

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Dany-I don't think she trusts anyone at this point, but what about the little slave girl (can't remember her name!) She is close to Dany and seems to know more than a young girl should!

Missandei. Now that is an interesting theory. In perfect position to know every little thing that is going on around Dany.

Jaime-My guess for FM here is Payne! Knows Jaime's secrets.

Thinking of combining this one with the Ned Stark FM theory.


I don't know about Stannis, though. Somehow, I don't get that feeling about him.

 

[The Imp]

okay, I am going to have to start with, I guess you'd say. an elimination process. If it can't be a POV character, we need to figure out who has the most influence on said POV characters.

Jon Snow-who does Jon listen to that is not a POV?
Stannis? Now there is a possibility.

Dany-I don't think she trusts anyone at this point, but what about the little slave girl (can't remember her name!) She is close to Dany and seems to know more than a young girl should!

Cersei-doesn't listen to anyone, even when she should!

Arya-she is in their temple, may end up one herself. Where does that leave us?

Jaime-My guess for FM here is Payne! Knows Jaime's secrets.

Sansa-has no one but Littlefinger, and I agree Imp, probably not him, he knows to much about too many, or does he?

Bran-Meera?

All I got for now. Of the one's I thought of here, I think the one who could do the most damage is most likely Stannis. Thoughts?

This is a good start

Let's consider Who would best be in a position to influence someone or influence events. If I was going to replace someone with a FM, it wouldn't be someone like Payne, as he can't talk and can't even make that good of a spy. Meera could certainly influence Bran, but my guess is that Joen would be able to spot a fake Meera, and also, Meera has been acting in a way that has helped Bran (I think).

The two "hotsspots" that I would identify would be around Dany and around Jon. Stannis being a FM would almost be a deux ex machina scenario for me. I think it would have to be "plainer', less powerful, but at the same time, influential. If I could pick one I'd pick someone close to Dany, as I don't think Jon is influenced by very many people. I like your idea of irri as a possibility. I'd also add Daario Naharis, who I think might be Braavosi.

And here's one out of left field. How about Penny?

 

[Eulalia]

The FM being Penny would have to have superior jousting skills.

Bowen Marsh??...nah.

Someone around Arianne?

I wonder who Arya is being trained to assassinate. Seems to me that it will be a key.

 

[Needle]

This is a good start

Let's consider Who would best be in a position to influence someone or influence events. If I was going to replace someone with a FM, it wouldn't be someone like Payne, as he can't talk and can't even make that good of a spy. Meera could certainly influence Bran, but my guess is that Joen would be able to spot a fake Meera, and also, Meera has been acting in a way that has helped Bran (I think).

The two "hotsspots" that I would identify would be around Dany and around Jon. Stannis being a FM would almost be a deux ex machina scenario for me. I think it would have to be "plainer', less powerful, but at the same time, influential. If I could pick one I'd pick someone close to Dany, as I don't think Jon is influenced by very many people. I like your idea of irri as a possibility. I'd also add Daario Naharis, who I think might be Braavosi.

And here's one out of left field. How about Penny?

I actually did consider Penny! What a trip that would be!

You are probably right about Stannis too, he is likely to make a mess of things all by himself.

Meera, I didn't really think so either, just a shot in the dark.

Messandei is the one I am thinking of around Dany. She is with her pretty much always. Dany is not threatened by her in any way, she feels sorry for her and trusts her, probably more than anyone else. If he ever makes it back to Dany, Jorah is another possible, despite herself she cares for him and yes trusts him. Darrio is possible, but I don't think likely. Dany may still lust for him but pretty sure she realizes he is only out for himself and not worthy of trust.

I'm not ruling out Payne. If a FM can change his face, a lost tongue should be easy! Plus let's not forget, her eyes are only the first thing Arya must lose in her training.

The FM being Penny would have to have superior jousting skills.

Bowen Marsh??...nah.

Someone around Arianne?

I wonder who Arya is being trained to assassinate. Seems to me that it will be a key.

Good points Eulalia.

Arianne is heading straight into the middle of things. If the goal is to create chaos for the return of the Targs, who better to send Cersei over the edge.

My girl Arya, to forget what she may end up being up to would be a big mistake.

 

[The Imp]

What I meant about Payne was, it's not clear to me how he could influnce Jaime without being able to communicate. It might be though that his mission is to assasinate someone at a very specific time. Also, if my insane theory about Ned being alive is true, then it would have been a FM as Payne that killed another FM poising as Ned. That's taking crackpot to entirely unheard of levels

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

What I meant about Payne was, it's not clear to me how he could influnce Jaime without being able to communicate. It might be though that his mission is to assasinate someone at a very specific time. Also, if my insane theory about Ned being alive is true, then it would have been a FM as Payne that killed another FM poising as Ned. That's taking crackpot to entirely unheard of levels

Exactly because he cannot talk he is a perfect spy. Jaime is telling Payne a lot lately. Payne is the one practising swordplay with him since he cannot tell anyone about how bad Jaime is. He cannot influence, but he could relay all the informations to someone. If he is an FM, he probably can write.

 

[The Imp]

Exactly because he cannot talk he is a perfect spy. Jaime is telling Payne a lot lately. Payne is the one practising swordplay with him since he cannot tell anyone about how bad Jaime is. He cannot influence, but he could relay all the informations to someone. If he is an FM, he probably can write.

While I agree with this, spies are easy to come by Vary had lots of them, Littlefinger as well.

Maybe this is a good time to talk about the value of a Faceless Man.

A FM can pretend to be someone that they aren't. This allows them to get into places they normally wouldn't be allowed to go, get near people they normally couldn't approach, and ultimately, they can assasinate people with virtual impunity. The value of a FM is not to be a spy, but rather, a person who can either kill and be undetected, or gain access to information that they shouldn't be privy to.

Maybe that last argument actually makes Payne more of a possibility though. People fear him, and tend to give him a wide berth. A FM posing as Payne might be effective, if they were in the Red Keep. I still think there are better choices

 

[joshrackley]

Patchface: the unexplained absence after the shipwreck, completely ignored as a fool and so privy to all information, would never be suspected of anything except being really, really creepy, he's in a position to assassinate several key people and/or gain access to highly sensitive information.

 

[Needle]

What I meant about Payne was, it's not clear to me how he could influnce Jaime without being able to communicate. It might be though that his mission is to assasinate someone at a very specific time. Also, if my insane theory about Ned being alive is true, then it would have been a FM as Payne that killed another FM poising as Ned. That's taking crackpot to entirely unheard of levels

Okay Imp, this crackpotty of a theory is cracking my head!

Now, let's say Varys is either a FM or at least represents their interests. This means creating chaos and instability within the realm in order for the Targs (either Dany or Aegon or both) to return and save the world. Yes?

Cersei, although she does a fine job all by herself, is in the best position to tear apart the realm. With a good nudge (or shove) what might she do? How about the new High Septon? He (with Cerseis' help) is about to turn the world on its' ear! He appeared out of nowhere and went straight to the top! Suspicious in my book.

My next vote for chaos creator goes to Stannis. While I know it really shouldn't be a POV, I have throw Mel out there! As you know, I don't trust Rhallor! I have often questioned his priests as well, back to the question of- The priests are all slaves, yet someone from the temple is buying slaves to become priests. Can slaves buy slaves? Maybe (yes I know the Unsullied do for their final test) but I doubt it. If we are going crackpot here, I say Rhallor and all his priests are a front for the FM!

This brings up Victarion. He is about to create havoc all on his own and he too has a priest of Rhallor at his side. Proof, I say, proof!!

 

[The Imp]

The new high Septon is an interesting candidate, but i'd rule him out as it wouldn't have a whole lot of shock value if it was him...........

Which leads to another criterion- if there is someone who is a FM, it would have to create an OMG I can't beleive I didn't see that coming and I can't beleive that (blank) has actually been a FM all this time.

Also, it would have to be someone who wouldn't have to have a lot of information about the people he or she is surrounded by, which kind of makes Srylana's theory about Illyn Payne a bit more credible.

 

[joshrackley]

Also, it would have to be someone who wouldn't have to have a lot of information about the people he or she is surrounded by ...

Also, the people around them couldn't have a lot of information about them or they could more easily discover the imposter ...

... Patchface.

 

[Eversummer]

Following Needle regarding our dear little bird, Sansa, there's this outrider who became Littlefinger's captain of guards in the Vale. Luthor Brune became Sansa's quasi-sworn shield especially to the advances of Marillion the singer. He was also the one who was supposed to break lance with the Red Fool, Ser Dontos.

Oh, and Stannis, I was still wary of this young maester of the chain, this Pylos.

 

[Tywin]

In our analysis we're missing one of the indicators of FM presence in an area, which is where have people died of mysterious circumstances?

The first thing that comes to mind is Balon Greyjoy plummetting to his death in Pyke. I would assume that was at the hnads of a FM paid by Euron, but who could it be?

 

[Tywin]

Overall here are the indicators that I think we're looking for:

1) Someone in a place to influence the gears of power or at least monitor them.

2) Someone who is not surrounded by their own kith and kin who would know that the person is not genuine. (ie Catelyn's relationship with Littlefinger probably disqualifies him)

3) Mysterious and unexplained deaths ("accidental" preferably).

4) Someone readers would be surprised to find out is a FM.

I would argue that we need to remove two indicators (or at least table them for later):

1) That they are in a position to sow discord. We don't know that this is what the FM want. They kind of worship death, but it's not that simple and as alluded to earlier I don't think we really know the end objective for them.

2) That they can't have intimate knowledge of the people around them... I think that this actually should be the opposite, given their propensity for finding information. We could be talking about someone who has been under cover for years after all.

 

[joshrackley]

2) That they can't have intimate knowledge of the people around them... I think that this actually should be the opposite, given their propensity for finding information. We could be talking about someone who has been under cover for years after all.

It's not so much that they can't have intimate knowledge of those around them, but more that they are in a position where they don't necessarily need to have that intimate knowledge (initially, of course, if they're under cover for years they will develop it). If, for example, Melisandre were to get replaced by a FM in the next book it's likely that Stannis would notice since the "new" Mel wouldn't have the knowledge of him that Stannis expects her to have.