Foundation & Empire

[chornedsnorkack]

War is hell, the bigger the fire, the more the casualties. A true intergalactic war might have those numbers.

NO.

your Seldon is losing. To be sure, he battles well, for these men of the Foundation swarm like senseless bees and fight like madmen. Every planet is defended viciously, and once taken, every planet heaves so with rebellion it is as much trouble to hold as to conquer. But they are taken, and they are held.

Just 500 000 men for that?
We are given the population of Anacreon Kingdom in 80 FE. 19 000 000 000 people, and growing fast.
We don´t know the population of Kingdom of Loris in 80 FE, but it must have been a significant opponent for Anacreon, along with the other three.
We do not know what the population was 120 years later, but it must have grown somewhat.
The forces of Bel Riose conquered the outer planets of Loris, and then planet Loris itself.
Well, perhaps not the whole kingdom of Loris. But even for these minimum three planets, as average population per planets was in hundreds of millions (Anacreon´s 32 planets mean average 600 millions in 80 FE), we are talking of several milliards of people.

And then there were other fronts - Foundation was surrounded, remember. The other three Kingdoms. Korell and Askone. The unnamed countries Foundation managed to annex in the 40 years after Mallow.

A plausible number of population of former Foundation subjects under Imperial occupation is in tens of milliards.
500 000 men might have sounded a lot for a war fought safely over seas. USA lost 400 000 men in Second World War. Out of a population of 130 millions.
Since the population of Foundation citizens on Terminus had been about 20 millions 45 years ago (5 million households watching Mallow´s trial on TV), it may have been a few tens of millions when fighting Bel Riose.

500 000 may have been the true number of men whom Foundation sent in ships to die in space. It may have been the number that Foundation wrote and commemorated in their textbooks.

It was true - and still absurd.

We were just told that the tens of milliards of Foundation subjects on Loris and elsewhere did not just give up and submit to occupation when their Terminus overlords retreated in defeat.
No, they rose in rebellion which made them harder to hold than conquer. And yet they were defeated and the planets held.

500 000 is completely unrealistic for that.

A plausible number for men, women and children who died in their homes when rebellions were suppressed should be more like 500 millions than 500 thousands!

Do you agree that this was a howler?

 

[Tim Murray]

NO.


Just 500 000 men for that?
We are given the population of Anacreon Kingdom in 80 FE. 19 000 000 000 people, and growing fast.
We don´t know the population of Kingdom of Loris in 80 FE, but it must have been a significant opponent for Anacreon, along with the other three.
We do not know what the population was 120 years later, but it must have grown somewhat.
The forces of Bel Riose conquered the outer planets of Loris, and then planet Loris itself.
Well, perhaps not the whole kingdom of Loris. But even for these minimum three planets, as average population per planets was in hundreds of millions (Anacreon´s 32 planets mean average 600 millions in 80 FE), we are talking of several milliards of people.

And then there were other fronts - Foundation was surrounded, remember. The other three Kingdoms. Korell and Askone. The unnamed countries Foundation managed to annex in the 40 years after Mallow.

A plausible number of population of former Foundation subjects under Imperial occupation is in tens of milliards.
500 000 men might have sounded a lot for a war fought safely over seas. USA lost 400 000 men in Second World War. Out of a population of 130 millions.
Since the population of Foundation citizens on Terminus had been about 20 millions 45 years ago (5 million households watching Mallow´s trial on TV), it may have been a few tens of millions when fighting Bel Riose.

500 000 may have been the true number of men whom Foundation sent in ships to die in space. It may have been the number that Foundation wrote and commemorated in their textbooks.

It was true - and still absurd.

We were just told that the tens of milliards of Foundation subjects on Loris and elsewhere did not just give up and submit to occupation when their Terminus overlords retreated in defeat.
No, they rose in rebellion which made them harder to hold than conquer. And yet they were defeated and the planets held.

500 000 is completely unrealistic for that.

A plausible number for men, women and children who died in their homes when rebellions were suppressed should be more like 500 millions than 500 thousands!

Do you agree that this was a howler?

"Slightly" under represented.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Particularly odd if you spot who said it!

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Particularly odd if you spot who said it!

Namely:

I have your record here, captain - complete. You are forty-three and have been an Officer of the Armed Forces for seventeen years. You were born in Loris, of Anacreonian parents,

He was not born on Terminus. He was born in Four Kingdoms.
Thus especially odd of him to omit the casualties of his people.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

On Kalgan, Han Pritcher finds that the shields were only "allowed" to Foundation ships.
How was Foundation enforcing that?

 

[Tim Murray]

On Kalgan, Han Pritcher finds that the shields were only "allowed" to Foundation ships.
How was Foundation enforcing that?

He who controls the money/credits, (banks, super wealthy etc.) controls society.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

He who controls the money/credits, (banks, super wealthy etc.) controls society.

He still needs a mechanism and manpower to exercise the control.
Kalgan had only 1 genuine Foundation citizen present - Han Pritcher. We are speaking of a planet specialized on mass tourism - with probably tens of millions foreign tourists present at any time.
Most local spaceships copied Foundation designs.
Well, they could not copy the underlying technology - high speed and nuclear shields.
But could they have copied the appearance of the technology, had they wanted?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

H
Most local spaceships copied Foundation designs.

What we are specifically told that most local spaceships copied Foundation designs OR were produced by Foundation itself.
As clearly, they lacked nuclear shields (Foundation could control what they exported) and were slower than Foundation ships.

What this implies was that Foundation engaged in large scale exportation ships - the Foundation exported ships were not rarities irrelevant to mention, whereas an actual Foundation (in the case Independent Merchant) operated ship was the only one on Kalgan.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

The Radole Convention again displays the absurdity of the premise of Independent Merchants.
Can you spot how?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

The Radolian was saying, "For instance, old man, you think maybe that this Mule guy's running things. No-o-o." And he wagged a finger horizontally. "The way I hear it, and from pretty high up, mind you, he's our boy. We're paying him off, and we probably built those ships. Let's be realistic about it - we probably did.

See how utterly unrealistic it is?
Building Mule´s ships was realistic. Paying Mule off wasn´t.
Would you like a demonstration why?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

An obvious demonstration:
Foundation, as of 50 FE, had 1 million people.
Anacreon, as of 80 FE, 19 milliards.
Compare Britain and India.
Around 1820, Britain had 10 million people, and British India perhaps 100 million.
At that time, Britain paid 60 million pounds per year taxes, and British India about 15 millions.
India could never bankroll British Empire, not even to the extent Indies bankrolled Spanish Empire. British Empire, like Spanish, was paid for by heavy taxation of motherland.
Put it another way, Britain of Napoleonic Wars was such a wealthy society per capita, compared to anyone else, that they could outspend anyone else.
But this did not apply to Foundation of 1st century.
Assuming Foundation could afford to pay 6 pounds per capita, and Anacreon 0,15, the revenues of Foundation would still have been just 6 millions, and Anacreon 3 milliards.
Foundation still could not have mattered in Four Kingdoms in terms of cash, because while India outnumbered Britain 10 to 1, Four Kingdoms outnumbered Foundation 10 000 to 1. The only way for Foundation to matter was via monopoly of high technology.
(Actually, while Empire supplied Foundation with metals and exotic luxuries hard to find on Anacreon like Vegan tobacco, apparently not much precious metal currency).
Now, the population of Haven is stated as "a few hundred thousands". Haven is the biggest of Independent Merchant worlds, and 3 worlds have half of the total fleet.
So, the total population of Independent Merchants is perhaps 2 millions. Not much more than 1st century Foundation.
The cash that Independent Merchants could command should have been insignificant compared to the money present in typical post-Imperial dictatorships, like Kalgan.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

On Kalgan, Han Pritcher finds that the shields were only "allowed" to Foundation ships.
How was Foundation enforcing that?

Turns out that it was a mistranslation.
Exact quote:

The ship he stopped at was sleek and obviously fast. The peculiarity of its design was what he wanted. It was not a usual model - and these days most of the ships of this quadrant of the Galaxy either imitated Foundation design or were built by Foundation technicians. But this was special. This was a Foundation ship - if only because of the tiny bulges in the skin that were the nodes of the protective screen that only a Foundation ship could possess. There were other indications, too.

The implication that Foundation engaged in large-scale export of ships still stands. Compare Haven:

We? The Traders? Haven has the biggest ship factories anywhere in the independent worlds, and we haven't made one for anyone but ourselves. Do you suppose any world is building a fleet for the Mule on its own, without taking the precaution of united action? That's a... a fairy tale.

Haven was not the only independent world with ship factories. Other independent worlds also had ship factories.
And Haven had not made one for anyone but themselves.
Meaning that, for one, they were not making money by selling limited capacity ships to outsiders, like Foundation was doing at a large scale.
And for another - they were not even making ships for other independent worlds.
Presumably these worlds had to make ships for themselves.
Even Radole. A few tens of thousands of people all together, or less.
A few tens of thousands of people on Radole - including the supporting nonspecialist workers - could make fast, shielded ships. Several tens of short billions of people on Kalgan could not.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

A few tens of thousands of people on Radole - including the supporting nonspecialist workers - could make fast, shielded ships. Several tens of short billions of people on Kalgan could not.

This we hear as a firm assumption for some:

As I say, we saw the Mule's ships, and they looked pretty good, pretty good. I tell you what - they looked new.

provoking the reaction:

New? They build them themselves? You trying to tell me they beat Foundation ships with homebuilt jobs? Go on.

Better informed people commented:

Makes them himself, I suppose. That worries me, too.

Worries me, too.
How could he?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Why did no one at Foundation listen to the recordings of Seldon during third and fourth crisis?

 

[Tim Murray]

Politics, government and power machinations!

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Politics, government and power machinations!

The problem is that during 4th crisis, Foundation had no leader.
We are also told, during 3rd crisis, that the existence of Seldon crises was public knowledge and an essential part of secular education.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

How was Mule´s surprise attack on Terminus even possible? Compared to the impossibility of Bel Riose sailing straight to Terminus?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

I can not risk the lives of my men, who are few enough, or the destruction of my ships which are irreplaceable, by a too-rash attack.

Bel Riose was backed by Empire. Mule wasn´t.

 

[Ihe]

Mule had powers. Bel Riose didn't.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

But they have nice little ships which spotted me very handily two parsecs away.

And that was Askone. The spotting capability was a remnant of Empire. But that´s an established technical possibility - for a lone merchant ship.
A big war fleet might have been detectable at a longer distance. Foundation might have had better spotting technology. And Foundation in wartime certainly would have had much more ships in space patrol.
Yes - a direct attack was possible with suitably overwhelming force. Bel Riose sailed directly at the capitals of the Periphery states in the way of his siege of Foundation. Anacreon´s fleet sailed direct at the undefended Terminus of Hardin.
But Anacreon´s fleet was to take 13 hours to Terminus.
A surprise attack should have been impossible. The space patrols should have spotted the approaching fleet of Mule several hours before it reached Terminus - probably as soon as they advanced over the frontline 50 parsecs away.
Yes, Mule had powers. He demoralized the people of Foundation.
But it was latent demoralization. People were confident of victory, engaged in political maneuverings, did expressly keep space patrols - from which Han Pritcher was allowed to the Vault.
The speech of Seldon was a few minutes. People started arrived in Vault just 20 minutes before noon, and took some time gathering.
The impending arrival of Mule´s fleet should have been the talk of the town that whole morning. Whether the people reacted with panic already then, or with confidence that Tenth Fleet would win the battle - but they should have been expecting the battle when they went to Vault.