Foundation & Empire

[chornedsnorkack]

the thing with foundation is, they could've failed every time.

Certainly the First Crisis was not solved by dead hand like the parallel Fourth. Like Hardin said:

When communications with the central regions of the old Empire broke down, we found ourselves a world of scientists concentrated in a single city, possessing no industries, and surrounded by newly created kingdoms, hostile and largely barbarous. We were a tiny island of nuclear power in this ocean of barbarism, and an infinitely valuable prize. "Anacreon, then as now, the most powerful of the Four Kingdoms, demanded and later actually established a military base upon Terminus, and the then rulers of the City, the Encyclopedists, knew very well that this was only a preliminary to taking over the entire planet. That is how matters stood when I ... uh ... assumed actual government.

The temptation was great to muster what force we could and put up a fight. It's the easiest way out, and the most satisfactory to self-respect but, nearly invariably, the stupidest. You would have done it; you and your talk of 'attack first.' What I did, instead, was to visit the three other kingdoms, one by one; point out to each that to allow the secret of nuclear power to fall into the hands of Anacreon was the quickest way of cutting their own throats; and suggest gently that they do the obvious thing. That was all. One month after the Anacreonian force had landed on Terminus, their king received a joint ultimatum from his three neighbors. In seven days, the last Anacreonian was off Terminus. Now tell me, where was the need for violence?

Salvor Hardin had 4 months from independence of Anacreon till the arrival of Anacreon forces on Terminus.
In conversation, Anselm haut Brodrig suggested:

How do you stand with respect to Smyrno? You're not fifty parsecs from Smyrno's capital. you know. And what about Konom and Daribow?

What the devil has that got to do with the fact that we're liable to see Terminus taken over by Smyrno at any time?

In the next three and a half months we see no action by Smyrno or Konom and Daribow, until Hardin visited them. But since Hardin eventually needed just a month to visit all three one at a time, he could have done so before Anacreon´s ultimatum. Or sent Lee or some other of his associates to do so.
On the other hand, he might have been late. After all, Anacreon had been dealing with Pirenne and his Board of Trustees as the legitimate government which had accepted their ultimatum.
Yes, they promised to

You understand we have no desire to interfere with internal administration

But they were coming to "protect" Terminus. That is, "protect" Pirenne and his Board of Trustees. From Smyrno - or any other enemies. Like internal coups.
The Anacreonian forces had perfect pretext to promptly apprehend Hardin, Lee and their supporters for coup and treason against Pirenne. Even if they left actual punishment to Pirenne, Hardin would have been unable to travel and inform the other Kingdoms of their danger, and in the meantime Anacreonian forces would have been entrenching themselves on Terminus, behind the weak Board they had "restored". Game over for Seldon Plan.

 

[Ihe]

You lost me there with all the specifics XD, but I get your point.

The Anacreonian forces had perfect pretext to promptly apprehend Hardin, Lee and their supporters for coup and treason against Pirenne. Even if they left actual punishment to Pirenne, Hardin would have been unable to travel and inform the other Kingdoms of their danger, and in the meantime Anacreonian forces would have been entrenching themselves on Terminus, behind the weak Board they had "restored". Game over for Seldon Plan.

Now that you mention it, I'll lay out what I consider weak logic in the story: The thing with the First Crisis is that Anacreon didn't suspect for a moment that that tiny community of nerds had some backbone--and they didn't, only Hardin did (that's why Anacreon didn't bother cutting communications with the other kingdoms, etc). I mention this to illustrate that the Seldon Plan was counting on a Messiah/Chosen One-style of salvation for the first 3 Crises (more or less), and this is what irks me about the Seldon Plan. Not only is the margin for error, well, marginal, but it doesn't make sense for the least representative individual in every period to be the saviour. Seldon's maths dealt with very big numbers, and someone (or a group) would emerge from that statistical concoction, being a representative of the statistical sample. All of Seldon's work led to the "saving singularity" through an amount of stacked circumstances. But logically, this would mean that the product of the equation would fall in line with its constituent parts. Instead, the saviours were the radical misfits of the society, not the established men. Hardin and Mallow were not cultural/economical representatives of the Foundation. And yeah, you could argue that that was what Seldon was going for: for established norm to create dissidents and rebels, who were the ones to think outside the box. But the problem with this is that rebels come in many forms and ideologies, and they are almost never in a position of authority/power to guide Foundation. Too many variables, even for Seldon (specially at the beginning, where they were supposed to have a very good chance of succeeding, according to Seldon's estimates).

The Fourth Crisis was resolved in the most logical way (in accordance to Seldon's large-numbers statistics and broad social/economical movements, the pieces falling into place as if part of a larger plan--and large it was supposed to be) and it was this how I envisioned Seldon's Plan would really work. It is how it should've worked every time: via large political/cultural/militaristic/economical/social movements just following their due course. The first 3 Crises had a bit of highly individualized badass heroics that didn't fit in with the intended broad statistical style at all.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Instead, the saviours were the radical misfits of the society, not the established men. Hardin and Mallow were not cultural/economical representatives of the Foundation. And yeah, you could argue that that was what Seldon was going for: for established norm to create dissidents and rebels, who were the ones to think outside the box. But the problem with this is that rebels come in many forms and ideologies, and they are almost never in a position of authority/power to guide Foundation. Too many variables, even for Seldon (specially at the beginning, where they were supposed to have a very good chance of succeeding, according to Seldon's estimates).

Yes. Look at Second Crisis. The Activist Party figures are named Sef Sermak, Lewis Bort, Dokor Walto, Lem Tarki, Jaim Orsy - 5 people with names and lines. We can guess that many of the other 179 who voted to impeach Hardin would have done the same. But Hardin? His named supporters are Yohan Lee and Poly Verisof. 3 people.
And looking at Verisof, he was the key figure of Hardin´s plot for 14 years - yet was informed of the plot only a few months before pulling it off. If Hardin had had a heart attack before informing Verisof, would Lee have been able to perform the whole plot?

 

[Ihe]

Yes. Look at Second Crisis. The Activist Party figures are named Sef Sermak, Lewis Bort, Dokor Walto, Lem Tarki, Jaim Orsy - 5 people with names and lines. We can guess that many of the other 179 who voted to impeach Hardin would have done the same. But Hardin? His named supporters are Yohan Lee and Poly Verisof. 3 people.
And looking at Verisof, he was the key figure of Hardin´s plot for 14 years - yet was informed of the plot only a few months before pulling it off. If Hardin had had a heart attack before informing Verisof, would Lee have been able to perform the whole plot?

Exactly. Psychohistory can not account for the first 3 Crises' solutions. It couldn't have, not according to its original premises and statistical nature.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Even Mallow does not do nearly enough spying:

Sutt's narrow smile tugged at the comers of his mouth, "Oh, no, your records of your visit to Siwenna were complete. The viceroy of the Normannic Sector is interested in creating dissension in the Periphery for his own benefit, but only as a side issue. He isn't going to stake everything on an expedition to the Galaxy's rim when he has fifty hostile neighbors and an emperor to rebel against. I paraphrase your own words."

"Oh, yes he might, Sutt, if he thinks we're strong enough to be dangerous. And he might think so, if we destroy Korell by the main force of frontal attack. We'd have to be considerably more subtle."

Basically, massively stupid. How can Mallow get that level of detail from his brief conversation with Onum?

What WOULD have made sense is for Mallow to undertake or send followup missions to these 50 hostile neighbours. Who probably don´t have martial law on streets either.

 

[Ihe]

What WOULD have made sense is for Mallow to undertake or send followup missions to these 50 hostile neighbours. Who probably don´t have martial law on streets either.

Mallow didn't have that authority did he?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Mallow didn't have that authority did he?

He did not have the authority to go to Siwenna either - neither was he forbidden to. And in a few months, he was the Mayor, and did have the authority to send spies or official spokesmen of Foundation as he deemed appropriate.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

What was the authority of Bel Riose on Siwenna?
He is military governor. And he says he cannot appease Siwennans because that would be interference in civilian matters.
Yet he goes on quite high-handedly taking a civilian, Ducem Barr, captive and his family hostages. Does he need to agree with the civilian governor for this?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Or look at the loving description of how Bel Riose encloses Foundation in a sphere of fortified garrisons.

An established impossibility - because Terminus is established to be at the edge of Galaxy!

 

[Ihe]

Or look at the loving description of how Bel Riose encloses Foundation in a sphere of fortified garrisons. An established impossibility - because Terminus is established to be at the edge of Galaxy!

Could he use asteroids/asteroid belts, moons, and the like? Was Terminus literally at the edge of the galaxy? That description was always a tad ambiguous for me (it could've been a casual hyperbole we people pepper our language with) and probably it was supposed to be so. "Somewhere near the edge" would be more appropriate IMO.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Also: look how absurd it is for Devers to trust Barr because of the shield defending one person!
Remember - the original owner of it on Siwenna was the corrupt techman. Anyone could have got that item in the following 40 years.
Or it could have been the real Ducem Barr having genuinely defected to Empire in the 40 years of meantime.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

The low-born, faithful Brodrig; faithful because he was hated with a unanimous and cordial hatred that was the only point of agreement between the dozen cliques that divided his court.

Brodrig - the faithful favorite, who had to be faithful, since unless he owned the fastest speed-ship in the Galaxy and took to it the day of the Emperor's death, it would be the radiation-chamber the day after.

Um, what were the alternatives for Brodrig? It was not in his interest to cause Emperor´s death, but he could not prevent it forever. Was the fact of his having been faithful to Emperor in Emperor´s lifetime going to save Brodrig´s life after Emperor had died?

 

[Ihe]

I dont even remember who Brodrig was, tbh.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

I dont even remember who Brodrig was, tbh.

You want a pocket outline? He's a low-born rascal who has by unfailing flattery tickled the whims of the Emperor. He's well-hated by the court aristocracy, vermin themselves, because he can lay claim to neither family nor humility. He is the Emperor's adviser in all things, and the Emperor's too in the worst things. He is faithless by choice but loyal by necessity. There is not a man in the Empire as subtle in villainy or as crude in his pleasures. And they say there is no way to the Emperor's favor but through him; and no way to his, but through infamy.

Note that he is NOT the first favourite in Foundation. Pherl, in the preceding story, was:

For instance, you are young-very young for a member of the council, and even of a relatively young family.

And so young and newly-advanced a favorite of the Grand Master is bound to make powerful enemies among the great ones of the State it is said. His Veneration is aging and his protection will not last past his death, when it is an enemy of yours who will undoubtedly be the one to interpret the words of his Spirit.

 

[Ihe]

This goes beyond my working memory of Foundation, sorry. But anyways, we've discussed at length the potential significant plotholes you've put forth. Is there anything else significant enough for discussion or should we give this thread back to its owner?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

OK - the entire solution of the 4th Crisis looks like plothole level, considering the alternatives the Emperor had.

 

[Ihe]

OK - the entire solution of the 4th Crisis looks like plothole level, considering the alternatives the Emperor had.

Care to refresh my memory on the subject?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Barr asserts all over that assassinating one or two people, like Riose or Brodrig or both is fruitless and cannot help Foundation. Forell thought the same.

Then why does recalling Riose and Brodrig hand Foundation such a conspicuous victory?

It never penetrated earlier, but once it was over and I could ... well ...look at the answers in the back of the book, the problem became simple. We can see, now, that the social background of the Empire makes wars of conquest impossible for it.

Barr is not a reader of the story. He therefore was not privy to that previous chapter:

t is an affair of a romantic idiot; but even a romantic idiot can be a deadly weapon when an unromantic rebel uses him as a tool. Sire, the man was popular here and is popular there. He is young. If he annexes a vagrant barbarian planet or two, he will become a conqueror.
Now a young conqueror who has proven his ability to rouse the enthusiasm of pilots, miners, tradesmen and suchlike rabble is dangerous at any time. Even if he lacked the desire to do to you as your august father did to the usurper, Ricker, then one of our loyal Lords of the Domain may decide to use him as his weapon.

IF a successful Bel Riose was an obvious danger to the Emperor then the most trivial and least bothersome precaution against that was simply not give him the permission to launch the war of conquest.

 

[Ihe]

Ah, I'm now 1/5th refreshed, thanks.

IF a successful Bel Riose was an obvious danger to the Emperor then the most trivial and least bothersome precaution against that was simply not give him the permission to launch the war of conquest.

Brodrig had not opposed this the first time around because he had plans to benefit from this. Once he saw there would be nothing to gain, he turned to this piece of treacherous advice, no? For the life of me I cannot remember this bit.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Brodrig had not opposed this the first time around because he had plans to benefit from this. Once he saw there would be nothing to gain, he turned to this piece of treacherous advice, no?

No. First time around, his answer had been:

I did, sire. He was instructed to forward additional information and to take no steps involving naval action without further orders from the Imperium.