The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

[paranoid marvin]

I would not recommend the tv series, unless for the visuals. the story of the last 2-3 yeas is abysmal. and makes you think less of asoiaf.

I started reading the books having watched the tv series. I found it hard not to think of the voices and faces of The Hound, Tyrion, Jaime etc when reading the stories, and this helped with my understanding and enjoyment. Perhaps it is different to read the books first, as they are eminently superior in terms of just about everything.

I agree about the last 2-3 years, which is why I recommended watching the first 4-5 seasons, but then again it's hard to go that far and not watch the ending.

And the ending of the tv series is truly abysmal. Not in terms of action r visuals, but regards to what really matters - characterisation and storyline. It's amazing to think how they got it so right to begin with, but ended up finishing in a matter which felt like they just wanted to get it over.

 

[Elckerlyc]

The TV-series declined as soon as the TV-script overtook the books and the producers had to work out the plot-lines to the final act themselves. The steep drop in quality is evident.

Spoiler: Warning - SPOILER - Warning

It also showed that they had no idea what the story actually was about, by the order in which they first killed off the Night King (basically just took 1 assassin) and next the inane battle for Kings Landing and the Iron throne.

 

[Koopa]

Warning major spoilers inside

Spoiler

Actually i think they got the order right. Kinda like how Bilbo and the rest had to deal with situation in the shire after getting rid of sauron. I don't even think they got all of the major storylines wrong. Some wil probably come true as grrm probably more or less told them the vague outlines of his ending. I hope Arya story will be better. That Jon isn't portrayed as an incompetent fool who knows how to swing a sword. He basically was rendered useless during NK war and war with the lannisters. Before being shipped of out of sight. Even if living a quiet life is what he maybe wants at that point. That Bran actually has a real use, instead of just becoming the NK big target, before being made king of what remains of westeros for no real reason. I hope Tyrion and Varys don't suddenly become idiots. I hope varys and his blackfyre pretender get a proper sendoff. I hope dany's dragons (or at least one of them) don't just become ship fodder. I think dany's written as a megalomaniac, so her descent into madness isn't impossible. At the same time she has kept her brain intact so far after already facing a lot of ordeals. That story arc depends on how it's written, and the shift to madness was not done well enough in the tv series. And so on.

 

[Elckerlyc]

Warning major spoilers inside

Spoiler

Actually i think they got the order right. Kinda like how Bilbo and the rest had to deal with situation in the shire after getting rid of sauron. I don't even think they got all of the major storylines wrong. Some wil probably come true as grrm probably more or less told them the vague outlines of his ending. I hope Arya story will be better. That Jon isn't portrayed as an incompetent fool who knows how to swing a sword. He basically was rendered useless during NK war and war with the lannisters. Before being shipped of out of sight. Even if living a quiet life is what he maybe wants at that point. That Bran actually has a real use, instead of just becoming the NK big target, before being made king of what remains of westeros for no real reason. I hope Tyrion and Varys don't suddenly become idiots. I hope varys and his blackfyre pretender get a proper sendoff. I hope dany's dragons (or at least one of them) don't just become ship fodder. I think dany's written as a megalomaniac, so her descent into madness isn't impossible. At the same time she has kept her brain intact so far after already facing a lot of ordeals. That story arc depends on how it's written, and the shift to madness was not done well enough in the tv series. And so on.

Spoiler: Spoiler

GRRM called his series ASOIAF and that's exactly what the story is about;.basically the battle between Good and Evil, Ice and Fire, whereby the Night King and his army of the dead obviously is Evil and the Good, almost as obviously, is represented by the unadulerated Stark family. To win this battle they needed Dagron's Fire, the help of all of Westeros.
The TV Series was called A Games of Thrones, after the first book of the series. All series long the TV producers concentrated on this Game as if the ultimate plot-end was this Game and who would end up on the Iron Throne. The Wall and the troubles beyond were seen as a nuisance that got in the way.
I'm pretty (scratch that, I'm absolutly) certain GRRM meant it to be the other way round. It was this unholy Game that hindered the nations to unite and fight the Threat from the North, Winterland, Death itself, as one.
The TV producers failed miserably.

 

[Koopa]

Spoiler: Spoiler

GRRM called his series ASOIAF and that's exactly what the story is about;.basically the battle between Good and Evil, Ice and Fire, whereby the Night King and his army of the dead obviously is Evil and the Good, almost as obviously, is represented by the unadulerated Stark family. To win this battle they needed Dagron's Fire, the help of all of Westeros.
The TV Series was called A Games of Thrones, after the first book of the series. All series long the TV producers concentrated on this Game as if the ultimate plot-end was this Game and who would end up on the Iron Throne. The Wall and the troubles beyond were seen as a nuisance that got in the way.
I'm pretty (scratch that, I'm absolutly) certain GRRM meant it to be the other way round. It was this unholy Game that hindered the nations to unite and fight the Threat from the North, Winterland, Death itself, as one.
The TV producers failed miserably.

Spoiler: battle

I think the battle against the NK is definitely the more significant. Like Jon was told, it doesn't matter who sits the iron throne when dead things come creeping. And the rest is in a sense the backdrop in which this battle takes place. The dysfunctional state the realm finds itself in when the real battle starts. (lack of unity, lack of knowledge of their true enemy). I'm not sure if grrm intends to portray the NK and his followers as evil. I think they are mostly the natural enemy of living humans/creatures. That does not mean the order is wrong. The battle against sauron is overall the more significant one for middle earth. But the final battle was the one for the shire. In that way I don't think the writers got that part of it wrong. That the battle against Cersei comes after the batte with the NK.

 

[Judderman]

Although the battle against the Night King may be the most important storyline in the books, it isn't actually the topic of a large part of the words in the books so far. Much more of the content is about the Game of Thrones. Maybe that will be different in AWOW, or eventually in ASOS. But I can see why the producers prioritised the end of the human struggle, even if they arguably got it wrong. Also Dany and Jon Snow etc are probably of more interest to the viewers than the CGI Undead.
(p.s. I think 2023 looking more realistic now. 2024 wouldn't shock me.)

 

[StilLearning]

I think there are some very interesting, brave, and clever dramatic decisions on the 'grand scale': How the plotline of Jamie and Brienne turrned for example. But the execution was rushed, with emphasis too much on spectacle when more needed to be on the characters, and why they went the directions they did. I get a hint that GRRM painted broad brush strokes, with an ethos of 'in real history - which is what I'm inspired by - things aren't neat, your expectations wont be met, grow up and suck it up'. But the detail - that real history has (usually), so understanding can be reached - wasn't there.

 

[Koopa]

I'm kinda curious what my first estimate of release was. It long past i'm sure. Next target 2025
Just looked it up, I said spring 2016... not even close.

 

[StilLearning]

I think, between the expectations and the fallout from the last season of the show, he's a bit backed into a corner... I'm going to say 2037, possibly released posthumously.

 

[Koopa]

Just released an update on not a blog, and it ain't a good one for those waiting on WoW. The way i read it, just about everyhting else to do with westeros is taking precedence at the moment over WoW. guess he just prefers helping the tv shows and the little side novellas over the big one.
I'm not surprised. I have felt for awhile that Grrm lost the motivation/desire to focus on the main series. the series that actually matters most. I think the main series has become a chore but he still loves the world he created. So he focuses on the trees instead of the forest.

 

[Judderman]

He did put of some encouraging progress early in 2021 too on various chapters, but looking at this latest blog it must have been a short lived spurt. He prefers writing “histories” and novellas to the novels.

 

[Pyan]

10 years since this thread started, and 750+ posts. Just saying. I've seen official Government enquiries that took less time...

 

[HareBrain]

10 years since this thread started

Sure evidence that Martin's motivation has decayed.

*finger hovers over backspace key, but... meh*

 

[Pyan]

It would be interesting if he wrote the next volumes so they come out completely different to the storyline in the TV series...

 

[Glaysher]

If he wrote them to end at a different point to the TV show then it would be different from what he originally planned. The journey there would make more sense though.

However, my publishing date estimate is never (don't count a version finished by anyone else).

 

[paranoid marvin]

He may have been affected by the (justified) criticism levelled at the ending of the tv series.

Generally speaking, the longer we wait for any movie, book, computer game etc the more disappointing it usually turns out to be.

Perhaps it's for the best if a final book in the series was never released. I'd rather it remained unfinished than had a final book written just for the sake of completion.

 

[Judderman]

But hopefully we can get the second from final book

 

[HareBrain]

I think he's waiting for AI to be developed of sufficient ability to tie up all his dangling plot threads.

Sadly, I think this will require a higher-level AI than squashing humankind like the bugs we are, so we'll never get to see it.

 

[Boaz]

Ab excerpt from GRRM's Not A Blog on March 9, 2022

I did, however, get a lot of work done in 2021. An enormous amount of work, in truth; I seem to have an enormous number of projects.

(I am not complaining. I like working. Writing, editing, producing. There is nothing I like better than storytelling).

I know, I know, for many of you out there, only one of those projects matters.

I am sorry for you. They ALL matter to me.

Yes, of course I am still working on THE WINDS OF WINTER. I have stated that a hundred times in a hundred venues, having to restate it endlessly is just wearisome. I made a lot of progress on WINDS in 2020, and less in 2021… but “less” is not “none.”

The world of Westeros, the world of A SONG OF ICE & FIRE, is my number one priority, and will remain so until the story is told. But Westeros has become bigger than THE WINDS OF WINTER, or even A SONG OF ICE & FIRE. In addition to WINDS, I also need to deliver the second volume of Archmaester Gyldayn’s history, FIRE & BLOOD. (Thinking of calling that one BLOOD & FIRE, rather than just F&B, Vol 2). Got a couple hundred pages of that one written, but there’s still a long way to go. I need to write more of the Dunk & Egg novellas, tell the rest of their stories, especially since there’s a television series about them in development. There’s a lavish coffee table book coming later this year, an illustrated, condensed version of FIRE & BLOOD done with Elio Garcia and Linda Antonsson (my partners on THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE), and my Fevre River art director, Raya Golden. And another book after that, a Who’s Who in Westeros. And that’s just the books.

And an excerpt from GRRM's Not A Blog on March 17, 2022

We’re so excited to announce The Rise of The Dragon, a lavish visual history of House Targaryen – the iconic family at the heart of HBO’s Game of Thrones prequel series, House of the Dragon – featuring over 180 all-new illustrations!

The Rise of the Dragon is perfect for fans steeped in the lore of Westeros, as well as those meeting the Targaryens for the first time in the HBO series House of the Dragon. The book will be available in October 2022!

So I think, The Winds of Winter is not coming this year...

 

[Glaysher]

So I think, The Winds of Winter is not coming this year...

Well it is a year with numbers in it