Jon Snow -- Beware of Spoilers

[Boaz]

Warning! Theories on Jon's parentage...

Why did Eddard claim Jon as his *******? Everyone knew that Eddard was shy around the girls. Everyone knew that Eddard was a man of honor. Everyone knew he would not dishonor his new bride. I'd bet my life that Eddard was a virgin until his wedding night. Claiming Jon as his ******* was not very believable. That every other man during the war had sex at one point or another to relieve the stress or to feel something other than death is the only way anyone would believe that Eddard had sex out of wedlock. Heck, Robert bought it and he knew Eddard better than anyone.

But would it not have been more plausible for Eddard to have brought Jon home as Brandon's *******? Brandon had travelled to Harrenhal and probably south of the Neck on more than one occasion. Eddard could easily have claimed that Jon was fathered on a woman in White Harbor. He could have claimed that he was going to bring up the only living son of his beloved brother. He could have called Jon his nephew and he would not have been lying! By doing so, Eddard would have avoided alienating Catelyn. It would have been so much easier on him, her, and Jon.

But it would have made for less tension in the narrative... and Catelyn's words to Jon are memorable... "It should have been you."

On a side note... at the end of ADWD the North is shattered. Boltons, Baratheons, Greyjoys, Manderlys, Mormonts, Umbers, Dustins, Karstarks, the hill clans, the NW, and the Wildlings are in a free for all. Stannis, Roose, and Rickon are potential lords of the North... but what if Brandon had bastards? We're told he was sexually active well before he was ever engaged.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

But would it not have been more plausible for Eddard to have brought Jon home as Brandon's *******? Brandon had travelled to Harrenhal and probably south of the Neck on more than one occasion. Eddard could easily have claimed that Jon was fathered on a woman in White Harbor. He could have claimed that he was going to bring up the only living son of his beloved brother. He could have called Jon his nephew and he would not have been lying! By doing so, Eddard would have avoided alienating Catelyn. It would have been so much easier on him, her, and Jon.

But it would have made for less tension in the narrative... and Catelyn's words to Jon are memorable... "It should have been you.

That, good ser, is a VERY good point. Especially if Brandon was a bit of a player before he died, so Ned would not have been tainting his brother's honor, at least not much anyway. the only counter point I can see is that where Honor is at stake, logic goes out the window as far as Ned is concerned. it might have been his promise to Lyana (i promise I will raise him as my own) taken too literally.

 

[Koopa]

57 pages, anyone remembers what has been said so far.
Boaz summarize!

 

[Boaz]

Yes sir, Kiwi, sir.

After fifty-seven pages of discussion... We don't know who Jon is.

All done sir.

 

[Koopa]

What, we don't know Jon/Jack??
You are all useless, the lot of you!

 

[Tywin]

Warning! Theories on Jon's parentage...

Why did Eddard claim Jon as his *******? Everyone knew that Eddard was shy around the girls. Everyone knew that Eddard was a man of honor. Everyone knew he would not dishonor his new bride. I'd bet my life that Eddard was a virgin until his wedding night. Claiming Jon as his ******* was not very believable. That every other man during the war had sex at one point or another to relieve the stress or to feel something other than death is the only way anyone would believe that Eddard had sex out of wedlock. Heck, Robert bought it and he knew Eddard better than anyone.

But would it not have been more plausible for Eddard to have brought Jon home as Brandon's *******? Brandon had travelled to Harrenhal and probably south of the Neck on more than one occasion. Eddard could easily have claimed that Jon was fathered on a woman in White Harbor. He could have claimed that he was going to bring up the only living son of his beloved brother. He could have called Jon his nephew and he would not have been lying! By doing so, Eddard would have avoided alienating Catelyn. It would have been so much easier on him, her, and Jon.

But it would have made for less tension in the narrative... and Catelyn's words to Jon are memorable... "It should have been you."

On a side note... at the end of ADWD the North is shattered. Boltons, Baratheons, Greyjoys, Manderlys, Mormonts, Umbers, Dustins, Karstarks, the hill clans, the NW, and the Wildlings are in a free for all. Stannis, Roose, and Rickon are potential lords of the North... but what if Brandon had bastards? We're told he was sexually active well before he was ever engaged.

I had a response all typed up to this and lost it. Let me summarize, I think this may be better anyway:

Summarization of really lucid points that were lost into the ethernet: We put Ned up on some incredible pedestal. He slashed his way across Westeros in a way that made some really terribly viscious men dedicate their lives to him. Think back to the Tower of Joy flashback, this is not a Disney-style hero.

So: Siring a ******* might be a little out of character, but probably not all that far fetched because the guy wasn't St. Francis of Assisi with a Scottish accent.

Also: We have some hints that he may have had quite a few flings with girls while he was on campaign... his best friends were pretty convinced of it.

 

[Boaz]

Ty, you know I'm just coming up with theories regarding Brandon because I don't have any better comments. I cannot definitively figure out Jon, TPTWP, AAR, Dany, The Stallion, the Three Heads, and the Song of Ice and Fire. Brandon being Jon's father actually destroys my favorite theory, A+L=J, and ruins any hope of Jon solving the SOIAF. Obviously Brandon is not Jon's father.

But I don't think Eddard is Jon's father. Oh, Eddard's excuse is plausible. I've never been on campaign for a year and a half. I've never had my life, my family, my friends, and all I hold dear continually at risk of utter destruction. Eddard was under tremendous stress. Who'd blame him for seeking an escape, seeking normalcy, seeking love, or seeking tenderness for one night?

Though not in war, I have been under continual stress for a year and a half. I lost my mother, my marriage, my dog, and two jobs. And I'll admit on some days, sex, drugs, and violence seemed like real options... but I did not give in to those temptations. I'm not saying that I handled myself with composure or came through in good condition, but there were a few boundaries that I refused to cross.

So, I can understand if a man as patient, as strong willed, and as long-suffering as Eddard could hold on to his morals as a guiding light in a time of darkness.

But those very qualities are what seem to make Jon so like Eddard... doh!

At the end of ADOS, if GRRM writes that A+L=J, then I'll probably post, "I told you!" But if he writes that R+L=J, that Aegon, Sansa, and Arya are the three heads, that Theon is TPTWP, and that Hodor is the Stallion... I'll only be mildly surprised... and then I'll come back here and post, "I was wrong about everything."

 

[Tywin]

Though not in war, I have been under continual stress for a year and a half. I lost my mother, my marriage, my dog, and two jobs. And I'll admit on some days, sex, drugs, and violence seemed like real options... but I did not give in to those temptations. I'm not saying that I handled myself with composure or came through in good condition, but there were a few boundaries that I refused to cross.

Sorry to hear about your losses. Don't know if those were recent, or in the past.

At the end of ADOS, if GRRM writes that A+L=J, then I'll probably post, "I told you!" But if he writes that R+L=J, that Aegon, Sansa, and Arya are the three heads, that Theon is TPTWP, and that Hodor is the Stallion... I'll only be mildly surprised... and then I'll come back here and post, "I was wrong about everything."

I hope he surprises all of us. I didn't mean to seem like I was 'shooting down' the theory on here, just trying to participate in the discussion. I may have also had a wee little bone to pick on the "Saintly-ness" of Ned as we have gotten into on several of these threads.

 

[The Pointy End]

Ty, you know I'm just coming up with theories regarding Brandon because I don't have any better comments. I cannot definitively figure out Jon, TPTWP, AAR, Dany, The Stallion, the Three Heads, and the Song of Ice and Fire. Brandon being Jon's father actually destroys my favorite theory, A+L=J, and ruins any hope of Jon solving the SOIAF. Obviously Brandon is not Jon's father.

But I don't think Eddard is Jon's father. Oh, Eddard's excuse is plausible. I've never been on campaign for a year and a half. I've never had my life, my family, my friends, and all I hold dear continually at risk of utter destruction. Eddard was under tremendous stress. Who'd blame him for seeking an escape, seeking normalcy, seeking love, or seeking tenderness for one night?

Though not in war, I have been under continual stress for a year and a half. I lost my mother, my marriage, my dog, and two jobs. And I'll admit on some days, sex, drugs, and violence seemed like real options... but I did not give in to those temptations. I'm not saying that I handled myself with composure or came through in good condition, but there were a few boundaries that I refused to cross.

So, I can understand if a man as patient, as strong willed, and as long-suffering as Eddard could hold on to his morals as a guiding light in a time of darkness.

But those very qualities are what seem to make Jon so like Eddard... doh!

At the end of ADOS, if GRRM writes that A+L=J, then I'll probably post, "I told you!" But if he writes that R+L=J, that Aegon, Sansa, and Arya are the three heads, that Theon is TPTWP, and that Hodor is the Stallion... I'll only be mildly surprised... and then I'll come back here and post, "I was wrong about everything."

I'm new to these threads, so forgive me if i'm restating points already made. Regarding A+L= J, I think that theory falls short due to the presence of the 3 remaining Kingsguard at The TOJ. I submit the relevant passage from Ned's rememberance in GOT:

"I looked for you on the Trident," Ned said to them.
"We were not there," Ser Gerold answered.
"Woe to the Usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell.
"When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you
were."
"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn
in seven hells."
"I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege," Ned told them, .,and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne
dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would beamong them."
"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne.
"Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have
sailed with him."
"Ser Willem is a good man and true," said Ser Oswell.
"But not of the Kingsguard," Ser Gerold pointed out. "The Kingsguard does not flee."
"Then or now," said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.
"We swore a vow," explained old Ser Gerold.

To my reading, it seems the remaining KINGSguards feel they are currently protecting the rightful king/heir. At this point, both Aerys and Rhagear are dead. If that baby in there with Lyanna were Aerys *******, IMO, they would'nt be there, they would be wherever young Viseys is, or headed that way. They are the Kingsguard, and Viserys would be the rightful heir over any ******* of Aerys. However, the only living offspring of Rhaegar(Aerys eldest and heir) would have a greater claim over Viserys and hence recognized by the Kingsguard as the true king (i'm not sure if it would have mattered for the KG as far as ******* or trueborne if no other living offspring of Rhaegar knowingly exists). I think it must be agreed that the Kingsguard thought, wrongly or rightly, they were protecting their rightful king in fullfillment of their vows as Ser Gerold explained, rather than just out of close friendship to Rhaegar. Which is why i just can't see A+L=J, just does'nt square with the kingsguards presence.

On a related side note, has anyone ever postulated about when or what event the "Then" of Ser Arthurs "Then or now" response is referring? The Trident?

 

[The Pointy End]

I guess the ******* thing becomes a moot point if Rhaegar legitimized the baby (or baby-to-be) in the presence of the Kingsguard. He certainly would not have the right to legitimize a ******* of Aerys while Aerys still lived and Rhaegar died first, but i would think he could do so at any time for his own *******(*******-to-be).

 

[Boaz]

Tywin, that was a long time ago. I do appreciate your concern and I apologize if I came off as seeking sympathy. I only wanted to show how I empathized with Eddard.

Also, I don't have a problem with saints... but I do have a problem with self-righteous, pharisaic, hypocrital, and sanctimonious attitudes. (Obviously, I don't have a problem with redundancy.) Sometimes I catch myself copping a holier-than-thou-attitude... and I hate it. If I do it in a post, please call me on it!

The Pointy End, The presence of three Kingsguard is indeed hard to overlook. In fact, I agree with your reasoning. But I don't buy King Robert's notion that Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna. Also, I don't believe the Lyanna ran away to become Rhaegar's mistress and bear his love child. And neither to I think that Rhaegar and Lyanna secretly eloped. The political fallout from any of these actions would have sent at least one great house into open rebellion... Baratheon, Martell, or Stark. Rhaegar was proud, studious, diligent, capable and compassionate, not stupid. Lyanna was willful, not stupid. If she willingly went with Rhaegar, then the blood of her father and her brother are on her hands.

So why did Lyanna need to leave KL but not go to Winterfell?

We get the story of Lyanna more than fifteen years after her death. We only know of Rhaegar through memories. We know the words... "promise me, Ned." We know about The Tower of Joy. Then we are provided with some details throughout the story. Most of us want to attempt to solve the mystery, like Sherlock Holmes, through deductive reasoning.... looking at the entire story and trying to see the origins of Jon. I'm trying to approach this through inductive reasoning.

I'm not a master of debate, forensics, mathematics, or any science. So my use of deductive and inductive may be a bit loose. But my understanding is that deductive is looking at the whole and trying to find a part... while inductive is looking at a part and trying to see the whole.

My problem is figuring out which parts of the beginning are vital and which are not.

Beginning facts that I use: Lyanna was young, beautiful, and strong willed. She served Elia at court. She knew the royals and they knew her. Arys had a loveless marriage. The one woman he desired was denied him. He liked sex after he burned someone. He raped his own wife. He was a sociopathic megalomaniac...

Beginning facts that I do not use: Bypassing his own wife, Rhaegar crowned Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty at Harrenhal. The story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

Hey Boaz! How can you just ignore these facts? Well, GRRM's story is so full of extra information that it is hard to be sure which pieces of information are germane to a plot, subplot or theory and which are not.

For example, Lysa's message to Catelyn seemed to indicate great sisterly affection because of the warning and the use of a secret language, but we learned that Lysa was not only not loving towards Catelyn but that she was angry at and disdainful of Catelyn. The only thing true thing about the revealing of the message was that Lysa was involved in The Game and that she was setting herself against the Lannisters and that hopefully the Starks would too.... that's it.

 

[The Pointy End]

I get where you're coming from. You don't use the events of the tourney because you cannot know with any real certainty what were the motivations that guided the actors in the event. As to the facts you do use, has it actually been established that Lyanna served Elia at court and/or knew the Royals from more than a distance before Harranhal Tourney? Its certainly possible i missed it, but would be curious to know where/when that was estabished in the books. I do not remember any reference to her being sent to court. I believe she was still at Winterfell when she was betrothed to Robert.

 

[Boaz]

TPE,

Did Lyanna go to court before Harrenhal? I don't know.

Mayhaps she was not one of Princess Elia's serving ladies. Mayhaps I imagined it. Oops!!!

Oberyn said that Joanna Lannister and his mother served Queen Rhaella when they were young. It is logical that just as Eddard was sent to one of the great houses Lyanna was sent to learn by serving. I think it would be customary for the great houses to send their children to each other and to court to grow into lords and ladies.

But if Lyanna returned to Winterfell after Harrenhal? How did Rhaegar get her to the TOJ? Ravens would have flown from Winterfell to Castle Black, White Harbor and Greywater Watch.

Lyanna must have been somewhere south of the Neck. Was Rickard with her? Brandon? Were they on a vacation? If so, Eddard was not included.

It seems more likely to me that she was sent to learn to be a southern lady after her engagement. If she'd been at Riverrun, then we'd have known from Catelyn's memories. Given Robert's tendencies and the fact that Jon Arryn was unmarried, the chance of Lyanna being sent to the Eyrie is nil. The Starks don't have close ties to Houses Lannister, Martell, or Tyrell. I doubt that Rickard would have sent his only daughter to a lesser house unless he had close ties with them. So... Lyanna was not in the North, the Riverlands, the Vale, the Westerlands, the Reach, the Stormlands, nor Dorne. That only leaves the Crownlands... King's Landing... House Targaryen.

That seems logical, right? It also nicely fits into my theory... very convenient for me... but it's all conjecture, I admit.

I'm reticent of a Rhaegar and Lyanna love story because it's too obvious.... once you see it. I admit that I did not see it on my first time reading the story. But after a friend pointed it out, it just seemed too easy of an answer.

Okay, so I don't have proof... just wishes.

 

[The Pointy End]

I can't deny the plausibility of your logic, but because we don't have a clear timeline from betrothal until the tourney, then until Lyanna's kidnapped or scarpered, it leaves much open to conjecture relative to her movements. I may lean towards the R&L love story because it seems to be whats being suggested so far, although I agree to a certain extent that it seems too easy. I think, in the end, I try to trust GRRM will make it come together in an interesting and compelling way, that will not feel like a worn out starcrossed lovers trope. I do, however, think theres more going on with Rhaegar than whats hinted, and he may not be all he's reputed to be, thats where the twist is.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

First off, I want to point out that the above script depicting the tower of Joy happens during a dream Ned has while under the influence of Milk of the Poppy.

Take that for what you will.

Secondly, I think the presence of the Kingsguard supports R+L=J more than A+L, but I am still a bit miffed as to what they were doing there. If they were really Guarding, as per their name, was it necessary? Did they think Ned would kill his sister and Nephew? Did they think Ned would let Robert kill his nephew? And for all their talk of not running away and how they swore an oath to protect their king, they were absent when both their King, and their Prince, were killed. it would seem that Rhaegar made them stay to protect (?) Lyanna before going off to battle and they sat at the Tower of Joy while the entire war was fought.

Martin's got some explaining to do.

 

[Boaz]

I like A+L=J, but obviously I must retreat from my hard line stance. I guess I've started believing my own suppositions as truth... doh! The information we have may not even be complete or correct as you two have pointed out. I like GRRM's surprises... but... in the end, I'd love to be able to say, "I knew it! I am so smart! S, M, R, T!!!"

 

[The Pointy End]

... And for all their talk of not running away and how they swore an oath to protect their king, they were absent when both their King, and their Prince, were killed. it would seem that Rhaegar made them stay to protect (?) Lyanna before going off to battle and they sat at the Tower of Joy while the entire war was fought.

Martin's got some explaining to do.

I suspect we are going to learn Varys was not so wrong in what he whispered in Aerys ear about Rhaegars plans at the tourney. All the clues seem to point to Rhaegar planning to set Aerys aside. Aside from Varys whispers, you also have Jaime recollecting promises from Rhaegar that changes were forthcoming, and Beristans remembering that Rhaegar had not confided in him, as he had confided in Dane, seemingly in reference to events at Haranhall. I think he had already convinced Whendt and Dane that Aerys mad reign could not continue, and probably brought in Hightower to the conspiracy when he arrived at toj, so in those 3 minds they may have sworn personal vows to Rhaegar deeming Aerys no longer mentally fit.

So many babies born about this time and potentially swapped or hidden, who can keep up?

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

So many babies born about this time and potentially swapped or hidden, who can keep up?

Varys...

 

[Tywin]

Perhaps also the three-eyed crow.

 

[Boaz]

I was thinking again about Jon's parents because of the letter. GRRM admitted that Jon's true parentage would be revealed at the end. Sixteen years ago, upon my first reading of the first three books, I accepted the story as presented.... I believed Eddard fathered Jon upon either Ashara Dayne or Wylla. Ten years ago, I was a proponent of R+L=J because it made more sense than E+?=J. Now, I believe A+L=J.... mostly because I'm disillusioned with R+L=J and also because I want to be the one person who figured it out.

TPE brought up Varys. Upon his advice, Aerys II attended the tourney at Harrenhal. Varys told him Rhaegar was going to use the tournament to secretly meet with discontented lords to discuss Aerys II to abdicate. (This info comes from The World of Ice and Fire. I am enjoying perusing The World of Ice and Fire, but let us all remember that it fits into the ASOIAF as an addendum... a perspective of a scholar written to be a glorification of Westeros and justification of the Baratheon regime. It praises the early Targaryens... so that a united Seven Kingdoms is righteous and desirable. But it also trashes the later Targaryen dynasty in order to show the legality of Robert's overthrow of the government. Thus, we need to remember the biases it has when providing us information... especially regarding the tumultuous time between the tournament at Harrenhal and Robert's marriage.)

The R in R+L=J just does not make sense to me.

Rhaegar was the Crown Prince of an unpopular regime. He was not the Hand. He was under some suspicion by the King and spymaster. He did not have army. He did not have a geographic power base.... unless he was in command of Dragonstone (notoriously devoid of resources and man power).

Rhaegar was trying to build a coalition to deal with the tyrannical rule of Aerys II. As the host, Lord Whent may have supported Rhaegar. I don't know who else Rhaegar was courting, but it does not seem the plan was much more than a feasibility study at that point.

Rhaegar was married to Elia of Dorne. She'd already borne him two children... including Aegon, second in line to the Iron Throne. Mayhaps Rhaegar thought Doran Martell would support him, but he sure knew Oberyn would.

So why in heaven's name would Rhaegar name Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty in front of half the realm? I think Rhaegar was saluting Lyanna... honoring her for her part in the establishment of justice at the tournament. He may have had an ulterior motive of courting the Starks to his cause, but I don't think it was romantic at all.

From the way Meera and Jojen question Bran about Meera's story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, they fully believe the Knight was a Stark... Eddard, Lyanna, or Benjen. Mayhaps all three were involved, but for darn sure Lyanna was involved in the planning if she was not actually the Knight. I think this is important because whether she was the Knight or one of her brothers, Rhaegar found her part in the affair to resonate with his own situation. She saw injustice. She took a stand against cruelty. She protected her father's man. Rhaegar was trying to do the same... he saw injustice being done. He wanted to stop Aerys' cruelty. He did not want the Iron Throne for himself, he wanted to protect his father's people.

Above, I stated Rhaegar's situation. He was a dutiful son and a patient man. Jaime, Barristan, Aemon, Cersei, and Eddard all agree on that. He could have raised his banner against Aerys years earlier, but he did not. He kept trying to find a peaceful solution. Starting an infatuation with Lyanna seems out of character.

Why would Rhaegar kidnap and rape Lyanna? He would not. He did not. That's Baratheon propaganda.

So why would Rhaegar elope with Lyanna? I don't believe he did. Becoming a polygamist against the wishes of the King, Princess Elia, Prince Doran, and Lord Rickard Stark would have been political suicide! If he was eloping, then he'd have skipped across the Narrow Sea and shacked up with Lyanna in the Free Cities. Playing house with her at the Tower of Joy is pure madness.

Would Rhaegar convince a woman of honor, who he admired for her sense of justice, to betray her honor? Would Rhaegar, a man deeply concerned with the honor of the nation and the image of his family, embark upon such a scandalous affair?

Why would Lyanna elope with Rhaegar? Lyanna was fierce. She had the wolf blood. But running off? No. She was fully prepared to do her duty and marry Robert, a confirmed trash d!*k. Was the lure of having an affair or eloping with the devastatingly handsome and fabulously rich Crown Prince Rhaegar too strong? Besides looks, money, and status, Rhaegar had a wife and two kids. The loyalty to her father and her father's man that she displayed would have been thrown away by stealing the Crown Prince and disobeying her father.

Dany's vision showed Rhaegar's joy at Aegon's birth. He was convinced Aegon was the Prince that was promised. The argument that Rhaegar was trying to father that prophetic child upon Lyanna flies in the face of both his communcation with Aemon and Dany's vision.

...promise me, Ned. On her deathbed, Lyanna demanded that of Eddard. Was she desperate? Of course. But what if she was hopeful? What if she'd made Eddard promise before? What if she knew he'd do what she demanded? I could now picture her asking her to help train her with the lance and sword. Eddard remembered that she'd have had a sword if Lord Rickard had allowed it. That does not mean she was the Knight of the Laughing Tree. So what if she made Eddard promise to be the Knight of the Laughing Tree... or at least not to tell on her and Benjen. These are not "promise not to get mad?" or "promise you won't tell dad" promises. These are promises of commitment to see some action to the finish. A woman who understood such oaths should herself be hesitant to break all of her own on a whim.

Neither R or L were the types to bring this level of scandal upon their families.

The crux of the argument for R+L=J is that Rhaegar and Lyanna became instantly infatuated at the tourney and then threw away their honor, their families, and plunged the realm into civil war. I do not believe it was in either of their natures to do this.