SPOILERS: Theory on Jon

I just feel like it's equally as slanted as Robert's opinions. I throw them both out the window.
 
Honestly, the thing that's bugging me most about Jon is his birthdate. He turns 15 at some point in the beginning of aGoT, at my best guess, at about the same time Daenerys is turning 14. That means that Daenerys was conceived more or less three months after Jon was born. That means Jon was born at least three months before the sack of Kings Landing.

We've been given three possibilities for Jon Snow's parentage, and none of them fit that time frame.

Wylla is out. Eddard went to Starfall after King's Landing, after Aerys was dead. Jon can't have been concieved at Starfall

Ashara Dayne/Eddard at Harrenhall is the second possibility. This is impossible. Eddard was 18 at the tourney and 35 at the beginning of the series, making the tourney 17 years ago. Jon is 14. 14+1 for the pregnancy =/= 17. So it's not Eddard/Ashara.

Lyanna/Rhaegar: Again a timing problem. Some of the evidence for Lyanna/Rhaegar is that Eddard found Lyanna in her bed of blood (in childbirth, or just after it) and dying, and that she made him promise something to do with Jon. Again, this doesn't really work as it puts Jon's birth after the sack of Kings Landing, thus after Dany's conception, thus Jon can't be a year older than Dany, which aGoT says he is.

Same logic works for Aerys/Lyanna, or Lyanna/anyone.

So... wth GRRM? The only solutions to this conundrum that I can think of are:

- it was either an abnormally long pregnancy (like, 2 years to make Ashara Dayne the mother)
- Lyanna died very very slowly of fever and inadequate post-natal care, with Jon's birth being some months prior to the sack of KL.
- Dany's a ******* (conceived after the sack of King's Landing, after Aerys' death)
- Eddard lied about Jon's birthdate (but seriously, if he was going to do that, you'd think he'd pick a date that'd make sense with at least one of the three scenarios)
 
I don't think Jon was concieved right away if his dad is Rhaegar. In one of the books it mentions how the war raged for over a year and Rhaegar couldn't be found for most of it. He finally returned from the South (I assume the Tower of Joy. Maybe he would not leave til he knew Lyanna was with child?) to marshal an army and deal with Robert. It doesnt state how long it took for him to marshal and train one though, but he didn't appear from the "South" until after the battle of Battle of the Bells", which is only before the Trident and in turn, that is practically the last battle of the War.

Dany was born months after the sack of Kings Landing. Once again, I think something is mentioned how Stannis had to build a fleet first and then assail Dragonstone. That would take some time too. Aerys would always take his wife when he gave someone to the flames and he practically raped her a few weeks? maybe days, before he shipped her off to Dragonstone. I son't think anyone knew she was pregnant. Besides she was still beat up from Aerys and wore hood and cloak.

From that rough outline (sorry, I would detail this further, but I am god awfully tired at the moment) I think those to births would coincide.
 
Added, notes: I just read the first few chapters of AGoT again.

Jon says he will be 15 on his next nameday. Now, that could be a ways off or closer to a few weeks/months.

In Danys' PoV it states how she was born 9 months after the sack of KL.

So, I still believe in my previous post that the timelines are roughly accurate from what I could determine with my Theories. Well, I would say more than roughly, but I have been wrong before.
 
By Jon III of aGoT, his nameday has 'come and gone, a fortnight past' meaning he's 15. In Dany 1 of aGoT, she's 13. At the end of Dany III aGoT, she turns 14. They are, at best, one year apart, with Jon the elder. I have no doubt that the timeline is flawless, especially if you're right and Dany says she was born nine months after the sacking of KL. That means Jon had to be born three months prior to the sack. Still doesn't make any sense of who Jon Snow's parents are, as that birthdate is too early for Wylla, too late for Ashara, and too early for Eddard to have found Lyanna dying in childbirth in ToJ.

And yeah, it's still possible for Jon to be Rhaegar's and Lyanna's child and born three months prior to the sack of King's Landing, because as you say, Rhaegar was missing for a long while there. But if we speculate that this is the case, then Eddard's promise to Lyanna, and almost the whole ToJ incident cannot be considered evidence for R+L=J. To make sense of the timing, you have to weaken the initial argument.

Also, if we say that Jon was born to Lyanna and Rhaegar three months prior to the sack of KL, then that begs the question: What caused Lyanna's death (since it obviously wasn't childbirth) and how, if at all, is that cause significant?
 
Hm....

Well, we know after the Sack of Kings landing which i would assume was ,days if not weeks at most after the Trident, that Ned went on to the South to fight the "final battles" of the war. I.E .. the Siege at Storms End I believe is an example.

GRRM refuses to give an accurate timeline of the Rebellion because of his fears that people will figure this stuff out before he pens it.

What is never stated is WHEN Ned found Lyanna. After the KL to be sure, but then again, HOW was he able to find out where she was too?

So, we are in consensus that jon is almost a full year older than Dany give or take a few months, no? See, something is wrong (obviously) here when it comes to the ages or the amount of time. I remember that Robb and Jon are almsot the same age I think? Catelyn mentioned when she and Robb came to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had taken up residence before them.

I just had a thought. I have read, numerous times that GRRM has stated that people cannot make a timeline based on one chapter following the next. He also went on to say how time bounces around even in the middle of a chapter. Of how a meeting can be one night and the next time the same people meet in a few paragraphs over that it could be days and weeks later. So, maybe and this makes more sense now that I think on this, maybe Jon and Dany's chapters are happening at roughly the same time. Give or take the few months of separation of their birth.
 
I agree, you can't rely on chapter order. But if you match up events which should be fairly close together then Jon's and Dany's birthdays end up being around the same time. That still doesn't change the fact that he's turning 15 and she's only turning 14. Still that annoying 1 year gap.

Even once you account for the nine months Queen Rhaella spent on Dragonstone, there's still three months left over. And no matter how I look at it, I just can't believe that Jon's birthday happened three months after Dany's, when it was reported four chapters before hers, and events that happened simultaneously with Jon's birthday occurred before events that happened simultaneously with Dany's.

So even if Eddard found Lyanna in King's Landing immediately after the sack (doubtful), he'd still be three months late for Jon Snow's birth.
 
First, a note on timing in ASOIAF regarding Jon's birth... this goes with the last six or so posts... Jon is fairly mature for his age, psychologically, emotionally speaking. It's said numerous times that bastards grow up faster than other kids. Mayhaps Eddard fostered this proverb to help hide the fact that Jon is indeed older than Eddard claims.

Now for the biggie... the reason I've revived this thread.

A co-worker is finally reading ASOS; he read ACOK in 2001. So he's asking me questions at work... How did Renly die? Do you think HBO will really try to show Tyrion's cut off nose or will they just give him a hideous scar? Will Tywin really force Cersei to marry Willas? Will Tywin really force Tyrion to marry Sansa? Why did Robb marry Jeyne? Whos is Jon's mother? AHA! Now that's a question to think about!

I started to go through the story's versions... Eddard and Ashara, Eddard and Wylla... and I went through the ASOIAF-phile theories... Rhaegar and Lyanna, Robert and Lyanna, Eddard and Lyanna, Brandon and Lyanna, Benjen and Lyanna, Rickard and Lyanna, Howland and Lyanna, etc... and then I had a thought... a new thought! A brand new theory! I could not wait to post it here...

Aery II raped Lyanna. Rhaegar rescued Lyanna. Lyanna gave birth to Jon.

Isn't that earth shaking? Isn't that a new and stupendous twist on the story?

Well, if you click back one page, you'll see I posted this same new and original thought over two years ago... hmmm. I wish I'd remember these ideas... instead of believing that I'm actually finding something new...

My post on the last page is lengthy, even by my standards, so I'll not rehash it all here... I'll just say that Aerys+Lyanna=Jon makes Dany and Jon siblings. This is a lot closer to Aegon the Conqueror's situation than R+L=J.
 
SSHHEEEESSSHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

Can I grasp at straws as well? While it plausible, it is highly doubtful. What would of been more earth shaking is if you said Jon was the product of incest. Something the proud Starks would hide as that would make them similar to, oh, Lannisters.

But, because of my affection for you Boaz, I will certainly not discount it altogether.
 
My compliments! This is a marvellous theory (worthy of your intelligence), which can give new great and dark shadow to the story, although this is not so brilliant, flawless and divine as R+L=J theory, which is one of the greatest theorys in humankind history!
 
Raul, my friend! I've not seen you here in over a year! Welcome back. In case you did not know, GRRM will be in Poland in June 2011... might be close enough for you to go.

Sorry for the thread derailment, guys.
 
ss, check out the Appearances tab on GRRM's site. You know it looks like he'll be in Melbourne in September.
 
Ok, I'm going to be "that guy". Too many threads lately have been getting derailed. Now I never know if I'm going to read actual theories and discussion pertaining to the topic or a silly conversation between a few people. We've got PM capabilities.
 
Boaz-

I think the Kingsguard is a problem for your theory. Why were they there at the Tower of Joy if Rhaegar was just trying to cover up his father's crime? If we take Dany's warlock vision as true, it was baby Aegon who Rhaegar thought was The Prince Who Was Promised, not John. And how well known is that prophecy anyway, is it the sort of thing that would have appealed to Aerys?

It's a fun thought, but I'm sticking with 'Rheagar secretly married Lyanna'.
 
If we take Dany's warlock vision as true, it was baby Aegon who Rhaegar thought was The Prince Who Was Promised, not John.
Click to expand...
I've always wondered why people haven't speculated more on this scene. Martin is so intentionally vague at few points about the identity of Rhaegar's affections, that I was never sure that it was Elia and Aegon in that vision. I later ran across the quote from Martin confirming that the baby is indeed Aegon, but I remain skeptical (hey, if GRRM can't quiet the Syrio-is-alive thing, I don't see why he should get a free pass on this :)). At the very least, the fact that he wouldn't confirm the identity of the woman in the vision leads me to believe that something is up. And if it's not Elia, then who? Does a vision with Rhaegar, Aegon, and Lyanna make sense? In my mind, this lends weight to the Jon=Aegon theory. And, for the record, that annoys me.
 
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