The official ADWD "Pick the Announcement Date" thread

[Devil's Advocate]

I calculated it using my legendary math skills.

As a matter of fact, I did get it from Amazon. I assumed that they wouldn't put in a date that hadn't been confirmed (they have it on pre-order).

If the idea that he isn't done writing it is true, then it's pretty irresponsible of Amazon to still be using that date. I would've thought they'd revise it, or remove it altogether.

 

[Ursa major]

As a matter of fact, I did get it from Amazon. I assumed that they wouldn't put in a date that hadn't been confirmed (they have it on pre-order).

Sadly, you assumed wrong. (How else are they going to get orders for books whose manuscripts are unfinished?)

If the idea that he isn't done writing it is true, then it's pretty irresponsible of Amazon to still be using that date. I would've thought they'd revise it, or remove it altogether.

As far as I understand, this is not the first time they've assigned a date to the book, so they do change it now and again (if only because their previous invented dates have become unfulfilled history).

 

[Culhwch]

As the Bear says. Amazon are in it for the green...

Although I must say I do appreciate the assumption we're all so daft that none of us could find the release date (and were, in the meantime, just flat out trying to guess it!). In truth, it's only Boaz who is that daft, but it would appear his daftness is so pervasive that it is cloaking the rest of our crew's combined sharpness and superior intellect (not to mention striking good looks).

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Funny thing, though, that date is only on Amazon UK, not US. Interesting... Do they figure Brits are more gullible? Or more tolerant to misinformation?

Or I guess they're more afraid of lawsuit-happy lawyers in US than Britain.

 

[Quick Ben]

Pffft, all you arguing over who has the right date.

The book's already been released and announced privately by GRRM on 6th Feb, just as I predicted.

I just finished reading it, the series is finished. It was all a dream Ned was having, he woke up and Loras was drooling beside his bed. Creepy. Then Illyn Payne chopped off his head.

The end.

 

[Werthead]

Amazon doesn't have a 'to be confirmed' date. If they did, life would be easier all-round. As a result they shove in their best guess (sometimes the guess of the publisher, more often just pulled out of thin air) and change it when the book doesn't make it. Amazon has a legal disclaimer somewhere saying all dates and prices can change at a moment's notice, which covers them from reprisals.

I'm not sure where you got that date (Amazon?) but it's unoffical and highly optomistic. Martin hasn't finished the manuscript yet - and from all accounts he isn't even real close to it (closer than he was, yes, but a ways off still). Even were he to finish it later today, it still probably wouldn't be out this year.

GRRM isn't that far off (hence the thread), and if he finished the book tomorrow it would be released in August or September. Both the UK and US publishers have committed to a three-month turnaround from delivery to publcation on the novel. Theoretically, he could finish the book as late as late August and it could still come out this year, in late November.

 

[Culhwch]

I prefer cautious pessimism - that way when the book finally does arrive, it'll be a pleasant surprise...

Incidentally, I thought my guess of the 22nd of May back at the start of February was cautiously pessimistic. He didn't seem that far off back then. I think if I had to guess again today, it might be closer to the New Year than mid year.

 

[Boaz]

Both the UK and US publishers have committed to a three-month turnaround from delivery to publcation on the novel. Theoretically, he could finish the book as late as late August and it could still come out this year, in late November.

That's cool. How do you find out this information? Wait, don't tell me 'cause I don't want to do my own research.... I prefer to have you spoon feed me.

I prefer cautious pessimism - that way when the book finally does arrive, it'll be a pleasant surprise...

Like you have a choice... I try to be gracious, actually, I try to show you all how extrememly gracious I am... The only other real choice is to become one of the unwashed horde of foul-mouthed Wildlings demanding entrance immediately, if not sooner.

 

[Werthead]

That's cool. How do you find out this information? Wait, don't tell me 'cause I don't want to do my own research.... I prefer to have you spoon feed me.

GRRM mentioned it somewhere in his blog and reiterated it in person in Belfast. In addition, Anne Groell (his US editor) mentioned it to people at the Comic-Con last year, after a period in which it looked like recession-struck Bantam were retreating from the commitment.

 

[Culhwch]

Define 'delivery'. He announces on his website it's done (and I still imagine that's a good couple of months away) but I assume it's not three months from that date. Because surely his editors have to go through it. With a book this size, a story this size, that's going to have to take awhile, and I would hope they don't fast-track it for the sake of getting on the shelves. Then rewrites, possibly. More checks.

Is using the term 'delivery' a coy way of sugar-coating the truth - that even when he's done, he ain't really done? Or is all this editing and rewritng going on simultaeneously?

 

[viZion]

I think I remember Werthead saying once that they are editing as he finishes pages. I.e. he's already finalized a bunch of stuff and that stuff has been turned in for editing so that the entire process will be much faster when the book is finished.

 

[Culhwch]

Well, if that's the case, that's good news, though I hope the stuff he's writing currently doesn't lead to rewrites of the finalised pages...

 

[viZion]

I'm guessing that he's finalized some plot lines for ADWD that aren't affected by what's happening with Dany. Dany's story seems to be what he's struggling with the most. Hopefully Wert will show up soon and set us straight.

 

[Werthead]

It's three months from the "It's DONE!!!" announcement (or variant thereof) which will go up on his website when he's done.

ADWD has been edited in stages. Whenever he's finalized a section, he's sent it off to his editor who's gone through it and sent it back with proposed changes, which he has taken on board. That section is then completed and locked, unless he has to make changes because of something he does in new material written later. This writing methodology means that the book is edited as it goes along saving the need for months or even a year of editing and rewriting at the end (the problem Patrick Rothfuss and Scott Lynch are both confronting; their new books were finished ages ago, but the rewriting and re-editing process has been long and exacting for them).

On the page count front, GRRM only counts these finalised sections and pages in his count. So the 1,311 MS pages that ADWD currently stands at are the final, locked pages. He has many more pages - dozens more if I'm reading accounts from Bantam at the San Diego Comic-Con last year correctly - which exist as non-finalised drafts. How much work is taken to transform each draft into a finalised section is unknown, and will vary by chapter and page.

The last news we had is that the epilogue is done, at least in draft, (suggesting the overall shape and structure of the novel is near completion) and the last two chapters of the Meereenese Knot need to be sorted out and resolved. We don't know if additional material beyond that is required, but in theory GRRM could be down to the last two chapters of the book to finish off. Of course, it could be more, or if it is two chapters they could still take a while to sort out.

So, if GRRM says, "It's DONE!!!!" tomorrow, the book should be out in the middle of August 2010, assuming the publishers honour their prior promise about a three-month turn-around (and in fairness the publishers could very well have issues come up that prevents this from happening).

Bantam have already typeset the completed parts of the book and prepared the new maps (we'll be seeing the first-ever canonical map of the Free Cities in the book). The appendices are also apparently done (they're the same as AFFC's with some moderate changes). The cover art was done two or three years ago. They just need those last few chapters finalised before putting the wheels in motion. But I'll stress again that, whilst encouraging, we shouldn't necessarily be getting our hopes up. After five years I'm sure no-one's taking anything for granted

 

[Clansman]

Ten days 'till it's finished!

 

[murphy]

Ten days 'till it's finished!

We do hope.

 

[No One]

Thanks for that Wert - good to know.

I hate to keep moving off-thread, but you strike me as the Varys in this microcosm we call GRRM (I mean that in a nice way, not a 'you haven't got a c*ck' way). So I was wondering if you know anything concerning the ratio of chapters we'll see in ADWD - i.e: will Bran be a major thread, or re-introduced slowly through a handful of chapters; how much, if at all, Littlefinger and Sansa will feature, etc; I'm assuming Arya and Tyrion will both have expanded roles given the new map of the Free Cities?

This has probably been discussed before, but I need a Maester to sift through all the threads and it's entirely possible I missed some of Martin's updates and announcements.

Cheers.

 

[Werthead]

Thanks for that Wert - good to know.

I hate to keep moving off-thread, but you strike me as the Varys in this microcosm we call GRRM (I mean that in a nice way, not a 'you haven't got a c*ck' way). So I was wondering if you know anything concerning the ratio of chapters we'll see in ADWD - i.e: will Bran be a major thread, or re-introduced slowly through a handful of chapters; how much, if at all, Littlefinger and Sansa will feature, etc; I'm assuming Arya and Tyrion will both have expanded roles given the new map of the Free Cities?

This has probably been discussed before, but I need a Maester to sift through all the threads and it's entirely possible I missed some of Martin's updates and announcements.

Cheers.

From the counts of several years ago, Dany will have by far the largest number of chapters. 13, I think was one estimate by GRRM. Jon would have the second-highest, with 9 or 10 mentioned.

Bran may only have 3 chapters, and Tyrion started off with 5 (when AFFC and ADWD were still one book) before going up to 7 (after the split). According to GRRM, Tyrion's storyline has taken slightly more of a centre stage than first anticipated, so it's possible he will have more. Arya has 3 chapters in ADWD and 2 more written for Book 6 which may or may not be brought forward to ADWD. Asha has one or two.

SPOILER:

Spoiler

Melisandre has either 1 or 2, and apparently isn't the epilogue character. Varamyr Sixskins, as the prologue character, has one. Quentyn and Theon have at least one each, but almost certainly more.

Apparently some of the AFFC POVs will also have one or two chapters in the book. I imagine this will include Cersei (who has 2 chapters in Book 6 written so far), Jaime and Brienne if she survives. Possibly not Sam or Sansa, whose stories did not end on too urgent of a cliffhanger in AFFC.

The precise chapter counts are older, however, mostly coming from before the structural re-envisioning of ADWD, so all bets are off (though GRRM has reiterated that Dany is ADWD's central character and has the most chapters more recently).

 

[No One]

Superb - thanks again Wert.

Is it too obvious to suggest that emphasis on Dany, Tyrion and Jon is a major hint at the identity of the 'three dragons'? Maybe, or maybe it's just that - too obvious.

I could understand Sansa being put on the backburner for a while (although her marriage, I daresay, will prove pivotal), but not so sure about Sam, who will likely be our eyes and ears around the Citadel (assuming we see much of it in ADWD). I hope those couple of Arya chapters are brought forward or, better yet, that Martin has been exceptionally sneaky and has, in fact, secretly completed ADWD and the next book (I admit it's not very likely ). Surprised about Bran, even though, as you say, a lot has inevitably changed since the re-write.

Anyway, I see it's gonna be an interesting fortnight ahead with regard to the announcement dates...it's crunch time for May (I will now meditate in a dark room and use my possibly non-existent psychic powers to implant the date in Martin's mind...)

 

[The Imp]

Superb - thanks again Wert.

Is it too obvious to suggest that emphasis on Dany, Tyrion and Jon is a major hint at the identity of the 'three dragons'? Maybe, or maybe it's just that - too obvious.

I could understand Sansa being put on the backburner for a while (although her marriage, I daresay, will prove pivotal), but not so sure about Sam, who will likely be our eyes and ears around the Citadel (assuming we see much of it in ADWD). I hope those couple of Arya chapters are brought forward or, better yet, that Martin has been exceptionally sneaky and has, in fact, secretly completed ADWD and the next book (I admit it's not very likely ). Surprised about Bran, even though, as you say, a lot has inevitably changed since the re-write.

Anyway, I see it's gonna be an interesting fortnight ahead with regard to the announcement dates...it's crunch time for May (I will now meditate in a dark room and use my possibly non-existent psychic powers to implant the date in Martin's mind...)

I alwys look for subtle changes in "the force" What I've noticed is that GRRm hasn't done a blog update in 8 days. That might be the longest time between updates that I can remember. I just have a feeling that he's very very very close to being done and an annpouncement is imminent