So what's the latest crackpot theory?

[Judderman]

If you bet on all the horses, how can you lose?

If they cancel the race.

 

[Judderman]

Koopa I wanted to comment here on a post you made in your dance with dragons re-read thread. You put forth the theory that Serra, Ilyrio's wife (whose hands he kept) is varys' sister, and that Varys and Serra are blackfyres, .

Interesting. What is written about Varys's sister in the series?

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

If they cancel the race.

We will just have to hope and pray that the raise doesn't get rained out.

Interesting. What is written about Varys's sister in the series?

as far as I can recall, nothing. not even sure he HAS a sister, since we don't really know the truth behind his background. there are people in this forum who even question if he is a Eunuch. But it is possible he has a sister, or a brother. He probably has aunts and uncles and cousins and all manner of family, we just don't know who they are because we don't know who HE is.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Apparently, latest crackpot everyone is talking about is this one.

I think that there is single possible reaction after reading it.

Spoiler

Dear George R.R. Martin,

We, the fans of your book series, A Song of Ice and Fire, request you to hurry up and finish your next book: The Winds of Winter.

It's not that we're tired of waiting, but there was this post on reddit about Tyrion being the Stallion that Mounts the World and Mirri Maz Duur and time traveling fetuses. We believe it's time.

Sincerely,
Everyone

 

[Judderman]

That would be a surprise marriage.

 

[Narkalui]

I've just re-read the theory earlier in this thread regarding Varys being Aegon The Unlikely. Alas, wiki of ice and fire states that the waif "appears like a child because of her work with poisons." There is no mention of The Faceless Men possessing magic which preserve youth.

However, the idea of Varys and Illyrio being Targaryens is an interesting one and I have some other candidates: what if they are sons or grandsons of Duncan the Small and Jenny of Oldstones? If they had had offspring it doesn't seem too far fetched for them to have been secretly fostered in the Free Cities to prevent them from becoming the figure head for any discontented parties (same reason Maester Aemon went to the wall).

It occurs to me that it is quite possible that these two are angry with their (great) grandfather Aegon V for robbing them of what they see as their birthright by forcing their (grand)father to renounce his claim to the throne.

If this is all so, then Faegon is still Illyrio's son but he's much more legitimate than if he's a Blackfyre.

 

[MemoryTale]

OK, so I've been rereading the series and developing a couple of crackpot theories of my own. My favorite goes a bit like this:

Varys' given reason for killing Kevan Lannister was because he was being too good a Hand. Varys needed incompetants in charge of Westeros to make it ripe for Targaryan conquest. Now it's possible he was lying, but why lie to a man just before you kill him? That made me think of previous Hands and their downfall:

Tywin - killed by his Tyrion after Varys gave directions on how to find him.
Tyrion - Falsely accused of murdering Joffrey, which had actually been arranged by Littlefinger
Eddard - Double crossed by Littlefinger.
Jon Aryn - murdered by Lysa, at the instigation of Littlefinger.

So we have five Hands, each of whom brought a moderating influence to one monarch or another, brought low by two people. It can't be a coincidence - I think Varys and Littlefinger are in cahoots. I don't have a firm theory on why yet, or how friendly they really are. One could always be playing the other.

I do have some other thoughts about this. In Game of Thrones, both profess to despise the other and mention knowing things that could harm the other. Now both men have proven willing to remove anyone standing in their way, yet they haven't touched each other. Possibly they are protesting too much?

Additionally I have suspicions about Shae, and also possibly Bronn in all this. Shae most of all.

Firstly she recognizes Varys in one of his disguises straight away, when even Tyrion had been fooled by it. Secondly is the way she makes herself impossible to get rid of even when it was for her own good, and lastly the way she turned on Tyrion at his trial. I think she was sent to Tyrion in order to bring him down. It was well known he had a weakness for ladies of negotiable virtue. Lastly in the chapter where Tyrion kills Tywin, he first finds Shae in Tywin's bed. After killing her he confronts Tywin, and there is absolutely no mention of Shae in dialogue. Tyrion had his mind on other things, to be fair, but Tywin didn't mention her either. Now maybe he was more concerned about the crossbow, and maybe he really was just a big old hypocrite, but I think it's entirely possible Tywin didn't know Shae was in his bed. Varys meant to murder Tywin. Tyrion was the weapon, and Shae the detonator. Maybe they didn't know Tyrion would kill her too, maybe Varys expected it and let Shae take the fall as well.

As for Bronn... Him, I'm less certain of, but here goes. Part of the plot to sow discord in Westeros is to get powerful families like the Starks and Lannisters fighting each other, and Bronn plays a good part in that. First is his meeting with Tyrion at the inn where Catelyn abducts him. Now even though Littlefinger did know where Catelyn was going it would have been hard to arrange for Bronn, Catelyn and Tyrion to all meet at the same inn so this is why I'm not certain about him. But he champions Tyrion against Lysa, thus promoting more animosity between Lannister and Stark and introduces Tyrion to Shae which brings about his eventual downfall. He then refuses to champion Tyrion against the Mountain. Maybe this was because he didn't fancy going against the Mountain, or maybe it was because Tyrion was now on the out list and so he didn't have to protect him any more. For that matter he didn't protect him during the battle against Stannis. Tyrion would have died if it hadn't been for Pod of all people.

My final theory is how Shae and maybe Bronn got in with Varys. I'm thinking they were ex birds. Varys' little birds are the orphans who go unnoticed. Well orphans grow up. Maybe to become prostitutes and sellswords? Who knows? I may be seeing connections that aren't there.

...OR AM I?

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

@MeemoryTale I disagree with the Varys-Littlefinger alliance idea. Varys made it pretty clear early on, in a talk with his closest associate that Littlefinger works for Littlefinger and that he was hard to control and manipulate. I think that the reason Littlefinger was getting rid of the Hands had more to do with creating chaos so he could advance than anything else. Besides, the timing of some things Littlefinger did does not suit Varys' plans too well. It is much likelier that Varys simply used what Littlefinger gave him to work with. He is a juggler, after all.

I think that Varys' plot was indeed to have Tywin and Kevan removed since they were too capable, but for Jon Arryn, and Ned Stark, timing wasn't right. In the first book, Varys was adamant that he needed to delay the chaos and he did his damnest to prevent Ned's death as it would set off the wars. Since it seems that Jon Arryn planned to stay silent on the whole incest thing, his removal hadn't benefited Varys either as Eddard was much likelier to reveal it to Robert should he uncover it. Not to mention that after Jon's death, it was quite possible Tywin or Jaime would take the office thus making the Lannisters all too powerful. Tyrion wasn't a hand anymore because Tywin returned and Cersei did her best to besmirch his work.

 

[Narkalui]

Plus let's not forget that it was Liitlefinger's scheme to kill Joffrey, a scheme which resulted in Varys' hand being forced in saving Tyrion and sending himself (Varys) underground. I really doubt that Varys would have been onside with that one!

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Plus let's not forget that it was Liitlefinger's scheme to kill Joffrey, a scheme which resulted in Varys' hand being forced in saving Tyrion and sending himself (Varys) underground. I really doubt that Varys would have been onside with that one!

I think that was a scheme which Varys knew about and didn't do anything to prevent it. That one suited him just fine. He needed to get rid of Tywin before Tywin could create too much order in the kingdom. He needed to rock the Lannisters too as they were getting a bit too firm of a grasp on power.

 

[MemoryTale]

In the first book, Varys was adamant that he needed to delay the chaos and he did his damnest to prevent Ned's death as it would set off the wars. Since it seems that Jon Arryn planned to stay silent on the whole incest thing, his removal hadn't benefited Varys either as Eddard was much likelier to reveal it to Robert should he uncover it. Not to mention that after Jon's death, it was quite possible Tywin or Jaime would take the office thus making the Lannisters all too powerful. Tyrion wasn't a hand anymore because Tywin returned and Cersei did her best to besmirch his work.

As to the first point, a fair bit happens in between Varys saying he needed to delay chaos and Eddard going down. Viserys commits suicide, and Eddard also proves too dumb to live by telling Cersei what he knew, which sped up her plans to off Robert. Events were speeding up so I think Varys decided to roll with them. Littlefinger also offered Eddard advice that would have allowed him to survive, but since he was determined to go his own honourably dumb way there really was no saving the man. Or maybe neither Varys or Littlefinger thought they would survive a man like Stannis being in power. Of course with Littlefinger it's always questionable how genuine that advice was, especially since Eddard's death would make Catelyn conveniently widowed.

As for Tyrion, yes he may have survived the Handship but that was only because of Pod. Also whether dead or retired, a competent Hand was still removed from office.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Even with Viserys dead, there was no way Dorthraki would be ready to go west. They were far from ready and Varys wanted Ned alive. It is indisputable because Varys plan was to send Eddard to the wall and keep peace for a while yet.

His death was planned by Cersei. He was never supposed to be a permanent Hand, only until Tywin got there. At that point, Varys actually benefited from a capable Hand like Tyrion since it balanced out the power ratios. Without Tyrion, KL would have fallen to Stannis. Varys doesn't want to always get rid of capable people. He wants to get rid of them when they disturb the balance of chaos by introducing too much order which puts one side in a too much of a favourable position.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

I actually Like the idea that Varys and Littlefinger are working together. To me, it actually seems really likely. Now, I don't think they are really that close, and I think their goals might differ in the end, but I fully expect that they are making use of each other.

@MeemoryTale I disagree with the Varys-Littlefinger alliance idea. Varys made it pretty clear early on, in a talk with his closest associate that Littlefinger works for Littlefinger and that he was hard to control and manipulate. I think that the reason Littlefinger was getting rid of the Hands had more to do with creating chaos so he could advance than anything else. Besides, the timing of some things Littlefinger did does not suit Varys' plans too well. It is much likelier that Varys simply used what Littlefinger gave him to work with. He is a juggler, after all.

I admit that I don't remember what Varys says to his Associate about Littlefinger. But I do remember Littlefinger telling Sansa that sometimes you need to make moves that don't make sense, or even seem to work against you, so that your enemies are never sure what you will do next. This could be a tactic that Varys uses as well.

You also have to consider that Littlefinger's betrayal of Ned served Varys' puposes as well. If littlefinger hadn't done that, Cersei would be in prison and a strong and competent king would sit the Iron Throne. A king, I might ad, that would not hesitate to punish the Lannisters.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

@ArstenWhitebeard Serves Varys' purpose indirectly =/= in cohorts. There are far more of LF's moves that directly mess with Varys' plans than those who do not and rarely for the better. Varys just happens to be very proficient in adjusting his plans and acting accordingly. I'm not saying that Varys never benefits from what Littlefinger does, but just that there is little to nothing to suggest they are actually in cohorts. I know that the show perpetuates their talks and what not, but in the books, they are more weary and more keen to keep their distance.

Littlefinger... the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing.

To Illyrio.

Littlefinger is the second most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms.

To Eddard.

Eddard: Are you in league with Littlefinger?
Varys: I would sooner wed the Black Goat of Qohor.

While Eddard is in the dungeon. (Note: I am inclined to believe that Varys-Eddard talk in the dungeon is one of the rare moments where Varys actually spoke his mind, only exceeded by Varys' conversation with Kevan in epilogue of ADWD)

 

[MemoryTale]

Even with Viserys dead, there was no way Dorthraki would be ready to go west. They were far from ready and Varys wanted Ned alive. It is indisputable because Varys plan was to send Eddard to the wall and keep peace for a while yet.

Well, no Varys told Eddard that was his plan, and used a veiled threat to his daughter's safety to get him to go along with it - what was he going to say? "I know you don't like me, but would you mind confessing to things you haven't done so I can get your head lopped off to bring back the family you helped depose? k'thanx"

My reread hasn't gotten to Dance with Dragons yet, so I can't comment about how advanced the plan with Aegon (or fAegon if you prefer) might be at this stage, but it does take time to disrupt a realm in such a way it would be ready at about the time he could come over. Too much chaos and the seven kingdoms would descend into anarchy, too little and whoever wins the war of five kings can get happily ensconced and give Dany or Aegon a real battle when they're ready to come over.
Also Illyrio sent for Dany at the end of Clash of Kings/start of Storm of Swords, I forget which exactly. Only she decided to go off and buy Unsullied instead and get involved in the slave cities. This is a carefully timed plan, and a lot of wild cards keep popping up to trip things up

His death was planned by Cersei. He was never supposed to be a permanent Hand, only until Tywin got there. At that point, Varys actually benefited from a capable Hand like Tyrion since it balanced out the power ratios. Without Tyrion, KL would have fallen to Stannis. Varys doesn't want to always get rid of capable people. He wants to get rid of them when they disturb the balance of chaos by introducing too much order which puts one side in a too much of a favourable position.

Unless I haven't gotten to that bit yet, it wasn't actually confirmed Cersei ordered Moore to kill Tyrion. He only speculated it, much the same way we only have speculation that Joffrey sent the assassin to kill Bran. Interestingly Tyrion's investigation into Moore did show that if he wasn't in the Kingsguard, he would have been sworn to the Eerie.

I actually Like the idea that Varys and Littlefinger are working together. To me, it actually seems really likely. Now, I don't think they are really that close, and I think their goals might differ in the end, but I fully expect that they are making use of each other.
.

I've just reread that conversation, and Varys complained about Littlefinger's meddling making things move too fast and that he doesn't know what game he's playing. Illyrio did actually say something that made me think Varys had some involvement in Jon Arryn's death. "If one hand can die, why not another? You have danced this dance before." and Varys' reply was "Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other."

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Well, no Varys told Eddard that was his plan, and used a veiled threat to his daughter's safety to get him to go along with it - what was he going to say? "I know you don't like me, but would you mind confessing to things you haven't done so I can get your head lopped off to bring back the family you helped depose? k'thanx"

That was so not the point. The point is, Varys wanted Ned alive. Had Ned not confessed, there would have been an execution. Confess, and go to The Wall. Don't confess and die. And if you die a traitor's death, just remember that Sansa is here and we have her. It was the deal and Varys went to quite the lengths to procure it. Also, Varys was there secretly. He went there in his disguise that nobody at the time knew. It was just that Joffrey messed it up.

My reread hasn't gotten to Dance with Dragons yet, so I can't comment about how advanced the plan with Aegon (or fAegon if you prefer) might be at this stage, but it does take time to disrupt a realm in such a way it would be ready at about the time he could come over. Too much chaos and the seven kingdoms would descend into anarchy, too little and whoever wins the war of five kings can get happily ensconced and give Dany or Aegon a real battle when they're ready to come over.
Also Illyrio sent for Dany at the end of Clash of Kings/start of Storm of Swords, I forget which exactly. Only she decided to go off and buy Unsullied instead and get involved in the slave cities. This is a carefully timed plan, and a lot of wild cards keep popping up to trip things up

I prefer Aegon at the moment. It doesn't even matter if he isn't Rhaegar's Aegon. The significance of Aegon there isn't of Aegon the Conqueror as one would assume. It is of Aegon V.

It takes a lot of time to disrupt it that way that's true, but it can also quite easily end with one or another side prevailing. Not to mention that Varys needed both Daenerys and Aegon ready, but he didn't have them quite just ready. Even now, it isn't exactly the most opportune moment. He is a planner and about big things, he is quite meticulous. IMO, he wasn't ready. He needed more of a delay and he failed to procure it because Joffrey happened. Not to mention that North was the biggest Wild Card of them all and their non-involvement was better.

Unless I haven't gotten to that bit yet, it wasn't actually confirmed Cersei ordered Moore to kill Tyrion. He only speculated it, much the same way we only have speculation that Joffrey sent the assassin to kill Bran. Interestingly Tyrion's investigation into Moore did show that if he wasn't in the Kingsguard, he would have been sworn to the Eerie.

Tyrion speculated, but at the time, nobody else would benefit from it. It would be chalked up to the battle and no passions would truly arise there. No benefit for anyone to remove Tyrion who would have to leave anyway as soon as Tywin came there no matter how capable Tyrion might be. LF and Varys both have more use of Tyrion surviving this assassination attempt as it furthers the discord between Cersei and Tyrion which causes tensions in the Lannister family. Not to mention that Tyrion can be used to further discord in Lannister family as he is the one that sticks out.

I've just reread that conversation, and Varys complained about Littlefinger's meddling making things move too fast and that he doesn't know what game he's playing. Illyrio did actually say something that made me think Varys had some involvement in Jon Arryn's death. "If one hand can die, why not another? You have danced this dance before." and Varys' reply was "Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other."

That really means nothing but that Hands are vulnerable and can be rid off. It doesn't go to say that Varys partook in death of Jon Arryn. It just goes to say that Varys managed to "outdance" Jon's death and keep the status quo. After all, Jon knew for quite a while (or had suspicions of) whose children Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella were and didn't seem to keen on telling. For as long as he intended to keep his mouth shut while Robert lived, he was perfect hand for Varys as he could be detonated at any moment which served Varys best. Ned was more volatile. Varys intervened many times to put Ned on his guard, but also to drive him in circles.I would go as far as to theorize that Varys' plan was for the North to cast their lot with Stannis in order to keep the fighting very balanced. Just remember that without Melisandre's involvement in Renly's death, Stannis would have only a meagre force. And Jon's death brought either Lannisters or Eddard as Hand, none of which were suited more than Jon for Varys' purposes.

That Varys doesn't know what game Littlefinger is playing only goes to support the argument they are not in cohorts. Varys always needs to know.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

Littlefinger... the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing.
To Illyrio.

This is actually the best argument that I have seen to say that they aren't working towards the same goal. Surely Varys would tell Illyrio, his closest and oldest conspirator, if they were. However this doesn't necessarily mean they aren't or haven't worked together in some things.

I think we need to determine Vary's true intentions with Ned before we decide if what he told Ned was actually true. Did he really want Ned alive? if so, then Varys would not have told him the truth (or at least not the whole truth) Did Varys actually want him dead? he might have. Varys seems to be a very good judge of character, so he may have expected Joffrey to do that.

What I think, is that Varys didn't really care whether Ned lived or died. what was important to him was that Ned confess to being a traitor. Ned being sent to the wall and Ned being killed amount to the same end. Either way, Ned is out of the picture. Can you think of anything that would have happened difeerently should Ned have lived? yeah it would change a lot for Jon Snow, and the Nights would be gaining a competent commander. but for the rest of the realm, how would things have changed had Ned lived?

Anything other than a confession from Ned would lend legitimacy to Ned's claims, which would surely become public knowledge if Ned was ever to go to trial

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

@ArstenWhitebeard There are several moments where Varys talks in the same spirit as he does when he speaks of Aegon to Kevan. There are some of his talks with Eddard where he shows a bit of his true face because it suits them at those moments to be such. I think that he through Ned to be a bit like Kevan. A good man in service to the "wrong" cause. I think that there was some degree of honesty in what he told Ned because it is congruent to what he said to Kevan and it is well-aligned with what he wanted to accomplish with Ned.

It is hard to say exactly what would have happened, but it is safe to say that North wouldn't act the same way. It is quite likely North wouldn't have moved to attack. They would hardly have a trigger to act in that manner.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

I think some of the things Varys told Ned to be true, and he certainly put on the appearance of being concerned and sincere, but it is possible that we were meant to be drawn into that in much the same way that Ned was. That doesn't mean Varys actually was being sincere. I don't think Varys would risk telling Ned anything about his true intentions because Varys was not sure if Ned would live or die.

I still think the North would have risen against the Lannisters, being as that they already were roused just based on the fact that Ned was in prison. His being spared/sent to the wall would not have lessened their desire for revenge agains the plots that sullied Ned's honor. You also have to remember that the North wanted revenge for the attempted assassination of Bran, which they believed had been perpetrated by the Lannisters. I also think the North would still have come to the aid of the riverlands, which were being raided at the time of Ned's imprisonment/death.

Ned's death was far from the only thing that set the North to war. Rob had called the banners long before Ned was executed. Like I said, the important thing to Varys was that Ned confess to being a traitor before he was killed or exiled. Had Ned not confessed, the North could have found even more support from the kingdoms and the Lannister's position would be much the weaker.

 

[MemoryTale]

I do have an idea of a timeline that could be workable with my theory:

Before GOT - This theory only really works if Varys wanted Jon Arryn dead. So far there doesn't seem to be any way to confirm or deny he did, but we do know from Vary's conversation with Illyrio that he feared the book. Jon Arryn didn't seem to be in any rush to tell Robert what he had learned, but would Varys put that to chance? If Robert learns the truth, House Lannister gets taken out of the game, the Baratheons and Starks survive, and possibly Robert marries Margery Tyrell. So in Theoryland, Varys decides to kill Jon Arryn. But how to do it and keep his own hands clean? It just so happens that there's this man called Peter Baelish. A minor noble, but a very useful one. In fact he excels at making himself useful to just about anybody of note. He has two levers, a desire to be Somebody, and a weakness for some hot Tully action. Maybe he suggested to Littlefinger somehow that if he played a part in the Tagaryans returning to power, he would not find them ungrateful? When discussing Arryn's death with Eddard, he tells him the murder weapon but points him in entirely the wrong direction to find the murderer.

During GOT - Unfortunately for Varys, he did not know yet about Littlefinger's ability to run a mile with any given inch, and he starts making schemes of his own which start disrupting Varys', forcing him to start speeding up his own plots. In his conversation with Illyrio he is trying to convince him to make haste, and warns him that he can't keep the Lannisters and Starks from each others throats. I think if Varys and Littefinger ever were working together, this was the end of it, and we end up with two people playing the chaos game for differing reasons.
This would be the reason neither seems inclined to damage the other, even though they're both aware of how dangerous the other is. They couldn't do it without exposing themselves.
His conversation with Ned can be taken two ways. Either he wants to save Ned and try to slow down the impending war, or he's decided "Screw it", lets Ned die and have done with it. Why try to hold back the tsunami?

During COK - I believe he genuinely wants to help Tyrion save King's Landing. During Storm of Swords, Stannis says that he counseled Robert to get rid of people like Varys. It's very doubtful that Varys would have survived Stannis winning the Iron Throne, so all support had to go to House Lanister. If I'm right about Shae he always knew he had a way to get rid of Tyrion if he needed to, but as events transpired he never needed to pull that trigger.

During SOS - While I don't think Varys had any input in the plan to assassinate Joffrey, I think he was aware of it, and had his own plan to make use of it. This is where he fires the Shae gun, and primes Tyrion as a weapon to take out Tywin. This is essentially a complete victory for Varys, as King's Landing ends up with a weak king, fought over by Cersei and the Tyrells, by which point he's ready to bring Aegon into the mix. Kevan nearly threw another wild card into the mix by starting to bring back order, but Varys dealt with him with little in the way of subtlety, another thing that makes me think his plans are accelerating. Possibly Varys will start getting a little careless in future books.

I'm enjoying this crackpot theory stuff