The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

Boaz said:
Well, GRRM learned from AFFC. He gave plenty of updates... but he was overly optimistic and he got negative reaction for it. So now he's keeping mum so as not to anger his readers... and he's getting negative reactions. Poor guy cannot win.
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This is something a lot of new-start companies learn. I saw Spartan Games (miniature model makers) get into that trap. They posted lots of early development concepts and designs as they worked on them; but because it was so early in the design phase when things came up which caused delays or which caused resources to be pulled off that project for a time it resulted in a loss of trust in the developer and the product. People just saw continued delays or no new information and assumed the worst.

Thus sometimes its best to say nothing at all.

Most people don't "get" creation of products/books/films/etc.... They don't appreciate the amount of time that goes into them nor understand all the common and normal pitfalls (we like to think the creators are so skilled as to be beyond mistakes!). In short one has only two real options - exceptionally regular updates which keep people up-to-date on a weekly basis or at least bi-monthly. Or you say nothing until the product is done and pretty much already in the phase of production where you're making it or so close that you nearly are.

The regular updates is possible with some products; but with a book its hard because its not just write it start to finish - chapters get moved, added to, removed. You could write 5 in one month then in the next delete two and write no more fresh ones. It also takes time to make updates - that's more time - more distraction - more discussion - more elements away from working on the project.



GRRM takes his time - we love his work and thus should be patient with waiting for it to be ready. Really the only "anger" is frustration and a degree of fear that he will take his creation to the grave without telling us the ending. People are afraid (insert Yoda quotation) we just have to accept that what is is what is and wait. (and maybe read something else)
 
I'm most afraid of Yoda being in charge of anything...
 
Since it's now a couple of years since I read Dances with Dragons,I will have to read it again before I can read the new book.
I need to refresh my poor memory and get up to speed ready for the new enchantment.
Get back to that desk,George,we're all waiting.
 
I need to reread ADWD as well. I should probably reread the entire series... but that's a big task. Mayhaps I'll get the audio and listen when I excercise.

Hey, George! Get up from your desk! Take a walk in the sun. Eat a great meal. Make love with your wife. Watch football with your friends. If you finish the story, wonderful. If not, I've enjoyed the journey. Thanks.
 
The book isn't on the schedules for 2015 at the moment. Schedules can and will change when it's handed in. If it's handed in tomorrow, it'll be out before the summer.

That is, of course, vanishingly unlikely to happen. But the hysterical reports saying that 2015 has been completely ruled out are incorrect.
 
He's in position he certainly can't win. If he doesn't give a date people complain - if he does they also complain - if he misses a date they complain - if he turns out a terrible book they complain.

In the end we just have to accept he's a slower writer and will have it done when its done. A wizard is never late and nor should be consider an author to be late either (I suspect on Chrons we are more tolerant than many other places though as many here have experience or at least more awareness of writing to a high level of quality)
 
mtzGr said:
UK Publishing Dates (as far as Wikipedia is concerned)
AGOT August 6, 1996
ACOK November 1998
ASOS August 2000
AFFC October 17, 2005
ADWD July 12, 2011

TWOW December 10, 2016

My conservative estimate based on the current trend. I don't see the show catching up to TWOW at its current pace of two seasons a book (ACOK and ASOS at least), though he might need to bang the 7th book out faster than he might like (2018). Also, it is called The Winds of Winter guys. :rolleyes:
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I'm still in the money, though it seems more likely the show will catch up now.
 
I think I might go into a bookies and see if they are taking bets and what the odds are like. December '16 might be worth a punt
 
We might be approaching saturation point with sample chapters. By my count I think he's only got to release 1 or 2 more to match ADWD's, and that was the maximum he wanted to go to because he went overboard with AFFC (about 15% of the book was released to the public before it came out, which was way too much). I suspect they'll want to hold back at least one of those until just before release as part of the marketing, so I wouldn't bet on seeing too many more before completion.
 
I know. I know. I'm just going nuts right about now. Not ever World of Ice and Fire helped. :/
 
No, they're not. The publisher said, very carefully, that the book is not on the schedules at the moment. Of course, journalists and people outside the business tend to think of schedules as immutable things that cannot be changed. This is very far from the case. When The Winds of Winter is handed it, it will be blasted through the editing and proofing process (especially as editing on GRRM's books proceeds simultaneously with the writing, not after it completely separately) and be on the shelves 3 months later, if there's been some forewarning and planning, or 5-6 months later if it's delivered completely cold.

2015 publication is not likely, based on the lack of any news, excitement or build-up, but it is certainly not 100% ruled-out impossible, which is the misinterpretation here.
 
It does beg the question of what the TV series is going to do when it inevitably catches up with the books. It looks as though parts of ADWD will be reached by Season 6, which presumably will be aired in 2016. Let's say the storylines are fleshed out to Season 7 in 2017 - by this stage we should have TWOW on the shelves, which means Seasons 8 and 9 (!!!) will have material to work from (and presumably they do already). But then, there's a big gap. If it takes GRRM another 5 or 6 years to publish A Dream Of Spring then presumably Game Of Thrones will have to go into hiatus for a few years??

Daenerys will be entering middle age by the time it's done! (If she lasts that long...)
 
DG Jones said:
It does beg the question of what the TV series is going to do when it inevitably catches up with the books. It looks as though parts of ADWD will be reached by Season 6, which presumably will be aired in 2016. Let's say the storylines are fleshed out to Season 7 in 2017 - by this stage we should have TWOW on the shelves, which means Seasons 8 and 9 (!!!) will have material to work from (and presumably they do already). But then, there's a big gap. If it takes GRRM another 5 or 6 years to publish A Dream Of Spring then presumably Game Of Thrones will have to go into hiatus for a few years??

Daenerys will be entering middle age by the time it's done! (If she lasts that long...)
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AFAIK, TV show is going to have 7 seasons, 8 at most and that's it judging from what D&D said. It doesn't need the books as it will diverge from them even more starting season 5. TBH, even in season 4 it diverged so much that the storylines will likely never be able to converge to the same spot. Seasons 3 and 4 already covered parts of ADWD too.
 
The overall ending is also known - GRRM knows the rough ending he's working toward and the TV series has access to his notes. So they can deviate but still get to the same general target area.
 
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