I'm glad you guys have responded. I'll try to keep an open mind, but I freely admit that the major factor in my belief in Tyrion being a Targ is that I want it to be true. There is not a shred of proof. Nothing. Nada. Nil. Zip. Bubkes.
I like the passage I quoted (page 390 in my 2003 U.S. Bantam Spectra mass paperback... shiny, blue cover picturing Hoster Tully's funeral) because it's the only place that I've found where GRRM hints at the scenario I've described.
According to my thinking, Joanna would have hid the fact of her rape (or indiscretion) from Tywin. I don't imagine Tywin as being akin to
Lord Randolph Churchill who pimped out his wife,
Lady Randolph Churchill (Winston Churchill's own mother), to Edward VII of England, the King of Serbia, and many others to further his own political career. I think if Tywin had known Aerys had seduced his wife, then he'd have executed her. If Joanna was raped and Tywin knew about it, then I firmly believe he'd have butchered Aerys before Jaime even had the chance. And in either case, he'd have executed Tyrion, too. No, I think this is a secret that only Varys and Barristan now know... well, Littlefinger may have unearthed it also.
As for Joffrey's comments. Aegon IV did have numerous bastards whom he legitimized upon his deathbed. This started the Blackfyre pretenders, the last of whom was slain by Barristan in the War of the Ninepenny Kings. But I recall Tyrion's name day gift to Joffrey, a priceless history book, which Joffrey immediately used to test the blade on his new Valyrian sword. The point is that Joffrey was a poor student of history. The only value in it, to him, were the examples of debauchery. Joffrey might have blurred the lessons of many Targaryen kings... Aegon III, Aegon IV... and Aerys II.
As for the mental state of Aerys II and his sexual habits... True, we are only told of his nocturnal visits to Rhaella after he'd murdered someone... But this is at the end of his reign. What was he like before he was kidnapped? What was he like before the Defiance of Duskendale?
I have not read the conversations of Dany and Barristan recently, but it seems to me (I've already confessed my poor memory in my last post, doh!) that Aerys changed greatly after his imprisonment. Before the Darklyns captured him, he might have been a womanizer... and he might not have been. Before the Darklyns imprisoned him, he might have viewed non-Targaryens as friendly... or not. But mayhaps, his mistrust and paranoia stem from this confinement... mayhaps he only trusted Rhaella in bed after his kidnapping.
But I don't know the exact timeline of Aerys' reign. The best I could find is on
A Wiki of Ice and Fire. Was Tyrion born before or after the Defiance of Duskendale?
If he was born after, then my argument would be that mayhaps Aerys was so mad at Tywin for taking so long to free him (remember that Tywin was the Hand) that he got his revenge by taking Joanna.
Does Mr. Martin have me chasing will-o-the-wisps or could I be making very good guesses in the dark?