Hey guys first post so bear with me on this one.
I'll start by saying that with the possible exception of Danny, Jon is by far my favourite character in the series. And I have read through this forum (and finished ADWD) and I'm loving all the theories regarding Jon (some of them I had myself). But what I don't really see people discusing is why should Jon be alive or dead. I'll try to put aside my bias as I write this, but to me the whole "death scene" rings false.
First of from a stylistic point of view. Going partialy by memory and partialy by recent re-reading, when a big character dies he is put in a situation that is preety much irecuperable. When we get a cliff-hanger type close-call death the character most likely survives (as evidenced by our favourite Lanister). Allow me to elaborate: Ned gets his head chopped of - no way he lives after that, Rob gets his head chopped off, Catelyn gets her throat slith (i know she gets "resurrected" but actualy I view things differently there and I'll explain near the end*), Twin gets an arrow in the guts with no one to hear him call for help, same for Kevan, Viserys gets a molten gold crown - ouch, The old Bear gets buchered, Drogo is turned into a mindless zombie, that knight with Myrcella (can't remember his name right now) gets eviscerated in a graphic fashion ... and these are all the examples i can remember. On the other hand we have tons of close call that never come through because the wounds or situations are not definitive: Tyrion (do I even need to say anything? He gets so many close calls yet each time we are left on the fence as to his fate ... and he allways comes back), Jon (has his close calls while with Halfhand and with the wildlings), Brienne (hanging but not yet dead agrees to kill Jaime - she lives), The Mountain (poisoned, but brough back through frankenstein science), Arya (the close calls with Sandor)**. Point beeing there is a pattern to the way people get killed in this series and there is a patter for how they just get near-death.
Second is the story perspective. I just don't see it going without Jon. I know many of you brought up valid arguments for why Jon can die, but answer me this: Who is better suited to figh the Others? No other character can pick up the mantle. The series is ment to end bitter-sweent, not apocalyptic (which is preety much the eternal winter that the others bring), but for that one thing is clear: The Others must be vanquished and I just fail to se anyone interested or capable to pull it off (Dany, dragons though she may have, is totaly unaware and she lacks the maturity to deal with such a problem, Stannis is most likely dead and even if he wasn't he is clearly a fake AA (but I don't count him out of a helping role just yet) and the other major players are hardly worth mentioning). Unless we get a screeching halt and U-turn that makes the Others the good guys (I laugh at the concept of good guys in a Matin story), thing which for me would spell bad writing, Jon is needed to this story finaly like we need air to live. I will refrain from comenting on the AA theories (religion and prophecies never brought any character any good in this story) but I will comment on his lineage. This is a part of the story which needs to be adressed before Jon dies, and in his current "death" that can't happen. But barring even these 2 things Jon is needed if life in Westeros in to continue simply because he is the only character who has everything needed to fight off The Others.
My final argument is the physical one. We are at the Wall. Winter has allready started. There have been week long blizzards and snow storms. It's freezing cold outside and it's snowing. Unless Jon is somehow imune to cold (which he isn't) he needs to be wearing some preety thick clothes. That and he is wearing his NW LC uniform right? Armor people. Armor+Thick clothes vs Dagger. I doubt those daggers could even touch his skin. Even Thick clothes vs dagger and he would only get superficial wounds.
So where does that leave us considering the passage? One posibility is the neck wound beeing way deeper than Jon though but this takes us into Cattelyn teritory. However it is not explicitly stated, but we do get a dodge attempt by Jon so ... I'm on the fence. Another is that it's a frame job prepped by Jon ... which means he would lie and omit everything and would require DEM powers. But to me everything in the chappter ringed false from other Jon chapters. His attitude, the way he immediatly plans to go after Bolton after just a vague letter (when before it just took word of Ned beeing in prison to get him to leave, but he then returns to his vows, as he does time and time again from then onwards), the way he ignores Ghost (when before a simple change in the way his wolf walked or turned his ears attracted his attention), the whole public speech which at first made me laugh at the ideea that Jon Snow would do such a thing (he knows why he brought the wildlings, he knows the others are coming, he would never risk his slim chances on a stupid threath from a stupid ******* that can't reach him in because of the piss-poor weather conditions), the way he doesn't immediantly inform the NW and the queen about the letter (that threat was as much directed at him as it was at the NW and the queen and Jon never lied to his brothers at least), his disregard for the fate of the dead bodies when before he took extra care for them to be accesible to him), his inability to pull out Longclaw (when never before has this been an issue) and finaly the way this chapter skims over important streches of time (the they talked for the better part of two hours bit) and omiting to tell us important and relecant things Jon planned (something that to my knoledge isn't done in Jon's POVs) while also giving an exact measurments of time (2 hours, 7days battle (preety odd no one thought of The Seven here since we are at crack-pot theories and sign interpretation)) something rarely done in the book and almost never in a Jon POV. For me it's either a case that he decided to fake the wounds and he really has no problem cause of all the clothes he was wearing or there is some serious magic happening here.
*Catelyn doesn't get your Red Priest resurrection (lowering the number of times it's been done). Beric Dondarion passes on the flame of life to her dead body and that triggers some fragments of her former self to inhabit it again. In my view Catelyn stays dead after TRW, what Beric creates is a pseudo beeing with Catelyn's memories. Much like a wight, but with free will and no personality, just vengence.
**I would have listed Jaime and the moment he looses his arm but I refrained for 2 reasons: I couldn't remember if it was done as a cliff-hanger ment to make us think he will get chopped to bits and getting your hand removed isn't tht much of a near death (not in a medieval setting and not today).
I would be happy to hear some feed-back on this and I kindly ask you guys to forgive my spelling errors (it's preety late and I'm dead tired). Also feel free to correct if I got anything wrong (but you didn't need me telling you that did you?)
As a final request is there a thread where one can discus crack-pot theories around the prophecy and where everyone falls into them or should I just adress it here (cause mine has a take on Jon)? Or should I create one? Thanks for the answer.